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Thread: Dublin South East

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    Politics.ie Member davehiggz's Avatar
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    Default Dublin South East

    Series of threads on each constituency:


    ElectionsIreland.org: 30th Dail - Dublin South East First Preference Votes

    There are boundary changes in this constituency as laid out in the Constituency Commission Report.

    Currently: 1 FF, 1 FG, 1 Labour and 1 Green

    Ruairi Quinn is a safe bet and should he not contest there's still a Labour seat in the bag.

    FG also is secured a seat and probably two. Eoghan Murphy topped the polls for Pembroke-Rathmines and he'll definetly be on the ticket alongside Lucinda Creighton both of whom should take seats. They're both under 30 (and in YFG) so it's great to see youth, from any party doing so well.

    Gormley will be gone and he along with other eliminated candidates will see Chris Andrews to take a seat on one of the later counts.

    I predict: 2 FG, 1 FF and 1 Labour

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    I'd say thats pretty acurate

    Gormley will end up like his consituent McDowell - party leader losing his seat - thank god if there is to be any green returned hopefully it will not be him....

    FG will be looking to scope up McDowells 4450 1st pref and hopefully will run two youthful candidates ...whats Murphy like? rumours of McDowells return could change things here but would be nice to see FG run some newbies rather than turn to the old guard

    lets say mcdowell does run as an indo/fg or new PD-type party what are his chances?

    Quinn will prob top poll

    Last two seats will be between FFer = andrews, 2nd FG and 2nd Lab with the former two to secure seats

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    Politics.ie Member davehiggz's Avatar
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    I've actually changed my view on this one. 2 FG and 2 Labour seems to be the likely outcome. Labour's vote was larger than FG's in the locals so they're safe for two seats and I think with the two young candidates, FG can beat Andrews for two seats also. However, if McDowell returns then it's only 1 FG and 1 PD2 (or whatever he's gotta call it)

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    Politics.ie Member Red_93's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by davehiggz View Post
    I've actually changed my view on this one. 2 FG and 2 Labour seems to be the likely outcome. Labour's vote was larger than FG's in the locals so they're safe for two seats and I think with the two young candidates, FG can beat Andrews for two seats also. However, if McDowell returns then it's only 1 FG and 1 PD2 (or whatever he's gotta call it)
    If FF run one they'll hold - they took 17% in the LEs, and while they have slipped since then Andrews has a fairly high personal vote I believe. My prediction: 1FG, 1FF, 2LP. The drama that might occur is that Murphy could actually take Lucinda's seat. After all the little wobblies she's thrown over the past couple of years she won't be much liked by HQ and they may ram resources up his hole.

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    Politics.ie Member jackryan's Avatar
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    Labour have a very strong ticket! 2 is within reach Humpreys will mop up PBP SF INDO transfers.

    FG on paper a good ticket but in reality 2 very similar candidates 2 seats not out of the question but would need to have a good campaign manager!!

    FF surely there is a seat, or is there? Andrews O'Callaghan are likeable guys so that's a help but if the tide is out it will most defo be out in DSE!

    GP Gormley is gone, He didn't poll well last time, and he won't be transfer friendly this time!

    McDowell If he runs again under whatever banner I don't think he'll do it! his return would be seen as a joke!

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    Politics.ie Member Reality bites's Avatar
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    There were no boundary changes in DSE.

    Labour have a better chance of two seats than FG. Kevin humphreys is Quinn's running mate and will own the inner city and be going head to head with Andrews for votes.

    Any votes Quinn loses in Inner City he will make up with former Gormley and Ff votes in Pembroke Rathmines.

    FG have a good chance to get two but both Lucinda and Eoghan Murphy will be fishing in same pool of voters. I reckon Murphy could outpoll Lucinda and he is being very active, dropping leaflets in the Inner City to increase his name awareness, despite not even being selected as a candidate. he had an office open in Ranelagh, staffed by interns i think and is a full time politician.

    Andrews is taking the challenge seriously and has just opened an Office on pearse St across from the Library, and despite the collapse of FF vote, if its just one candidate they run here, there is still at least 15% of the vote there for him. What Jim O callaghan will think of that is another thing.

    SF need to find a candidate if Daithi Doolan doesn't run again but that's 1000 votes or so that will benefit Kevin Humphreys on transfer.

    Mannix Flynn will be running as an Indo but he got a lot of votes in locals that he may not get in General, and again his transfers would benefit Kevin above others. It all depends on whether voters are buying what he is selling.
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    Politics.ie Member livingstone's Avatar
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    All of the talk of FG getting two seats based on McDowell's votes going to FG ignore that that in 2009, FG added 1300 votes on its 2004 performance. Labour added about 2000. It also ignores that at least some of FG's support is undermined by Creighton and Murphy not having as good a geographical spread as Labour.

    If Labour had selected Bacik, I think it would be 2 FG, 1 Labour and the last seat between Labour and FF. As it is, I think it will be 2 LP, 1 FG and the last seat between FG and FF, with FG winning if FF run 2, and FF winning if they just run Andrews.

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    Politics.ie Member Reality bites's Avatar
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    Interesting reading in the Tribune over the weekend concerning Deputy Creighton - hasn't made up her mind yet whether she will run in next GE.

    There must be quite a row bubbling under the surface in the local FG organisation.

    If FG are only on 15% in Dublin (according to MRBI) but if you gave them 25% in DSE its still nowhere near enough for 2 seats.

    Is Lucinda angling for a 1 candidate strategy? I'm sure Eoghan Murphy wouldn't be happy with that scenario.

    Speaking of Eoghan, he seems to spending a fortune - he has a plush office on the main street of Ranelagh with a PA plus he's working full time as a Cllr - with plenty of glossy literature being distributed. Doing all this plus living expenses all on a Cllr's stipend of ~17k.
    One would have to ask where all the money is coming from? Rent plus rates on an office in ranelagh must be guts of 20k minimum without TD expenses to claim it all back...

    Meanwhile Chris Andrews is putting his expenses to good use and has a new office on pearse st about to open. he seems to be out an awful lot consolidating his vote.
    'I am not one of those who in expressing opinions confine themselves to facts' -Mark Twain

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    Quote Originally Posted by Reality bites View Post
    Interesting reading in the Tribune over the weekend concerning Deputy Creighton - hasn't made up her mind yet whether she will run in next GE.

    There must be quite a row bubbling under the surface in the local FG organisation.

    If FG are only on 15% in Dublin (according to MRBI) but if you gave them 25% in DSE its still nowhere near enough for 2 seats.

    Is Lucinda angling for a 1 candidate strategy? I'm sure Eoghan Murphy wouldn't be happy with that scenario.

    Speaking of Eoghan, he seems to spending a fortune - he has a plush office on the main street of Ranelagh with a PA plus he's working full time as a Cllr - with plenty of glossy literature being distributed. Doing all this plus living expenses all on a Cllr's stipend of ~17k.
    One would have to ask where all the money is coming from? Rent plus rates on an office in ranelagh must be guts of 20k minimum without TD expenses to claim it all back...

    Meanwhile Chris Andrews is putting his expenses to good use and has a new office on pearse st about to open. he seems to be out an awful lot consolidating his vote.

    Good Points

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    Politics.ie Member FreshStart's Avatar
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    Surely, Ruairi Quinn can find a decent running mate. Wasn't Humphreys called a clown a few years back.

    Jesus, I think I'd prefer John Gormley.

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