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Thread: Cork South Central

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    Politics.ie Member davehiggz's Avatar
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    Default Cork South Central

    Series of threads on each constituency:


    ElectionsIreland.org: 30th Dail - Cork South Central First Preference Votes

    Currently: 2 FF, 2 FG and 1 Labour

    Deirdre Clune and Simon Coveney for FG are safe, along with Labour's Ciaran Lynch.

    Michael Martin's popularity will certainly get him over the line however the question remains whether he can bring Michael McGrath over the line with him to keep FF's two seats.

    Should FF be left with one there would probably be a 3rd seat for FG. Jerry Buttimer is a Senator and he polled very well in 2007.

    Again this is a tough call but with the recent opinion polls it makes all the more sense...

    I predict: 1 Labour, 3 FG and 1 FF (or 2 FG and 2 FF)
    Last edited by davehiggz; 5th September 2009 at 03:07 AM.

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    Politics.ie Member flavirostris's Avatar
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    Both of the sitting FF'ers here are very strong..I'd still say 2FF 2FG and 1 Lab

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    as you were, but expect cremin to increase vote this time out, Sf Vote in Sc up in local elections.
    Lynch to poll very well indeed, maybe even top the poll.

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    I reckon 3 FG, 1 FF, 1 LP.

    I don't understand why anybody, even a right-winger, would vote for Clune, and the same nearly goes for Coveney - yet they do. Go figure. Buttimer has a lot of support in the Bishopstown area and he and his brother have had pretty high profiles. In a swing against FF but not to a real alternative I would expect FG to gain.

    Martin is safe as houses. McGrath, on the other hand, was very visible when he was on the council but not so much since his switch to Leinster House. As a voiceless backbencher in a desperately unpopular senior party of a desperately unpopular government he should be electoral fodder.

    Lynch will be fine. At the last election I thought Boyle might take the seat back at the first attempt (Lynch isn't exactly what you'd call impressive - a permatan and light coloured jacket does not a Tony Benn make), but once the Greens surrendered their virtue to sleazy uncle FF that became unlikely.

    As to Cremin, I think he is a good worker and probably one of the few remaining old-style community-activist SFers, but the SF tide is on the way out.

    SWP ran a candidate here in 2002. I wonder if they will run a PBPA candidate next time? Unlikely to challenge for a seat of course, but on the back of a national PBPA profile and TV appearances from photogenic and articulate candidates like RBB they might influence proceedings?
    Last edited by red leveller; 12th September 2009 at 10:47 PM. Reason: embarrassing acronym error :)

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    Politics.ie Newbie Fianna Fáiler's Avatar
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    Likley to be no change, Martin and Lynch will both likely exceed the quota with McGrath, Buttimer, Coveney and Clune in the hunt for the final 3 seats with Coveney and Buttimer taking 2 for FG and McGrath getting in ahead of Clune for FF. Boyle stands no chance of regaining his seat and although the SF candidate should poll well they will not be in contention for a seat.

    Most likely to be 2 FF, 2 FG, 1 Lab
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kZrK5m9SGSE - What A Legacy To Leave Behind.

    "Fianna Fáil is the party of Vision, Energy and Ideas not the passive inheritors of events, We are the history makers" - Bertie Ahern

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    Quote Originally Posted by Fianna Fáiler View Post
    Likley to be no change, Martin and Lynch will both likely exceed the quota with McGrath, Buttimer, Coveney and Clune in the hunt for the final 3 seats with Coveney and Buttimer taking 2 for FG and McGrath getting in ahead of Clune for FF. Boyle stands no chance of regaining his seat and although the SF candidate should poll well they will not be in contention for a seat.

    Most likely to be 2 FF, 2 FG, 1 Lab
    On the basis of opinion polls, how can you predict 2 FF seats?

    FF are a toxic brand - transfers will be hard to come by. Martin and McGrath will need about 30% of the first prefs, with a pretty-much 100% solid transfer from Martin to McGrath, in order to take two seats.

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    Politics.ie Newbie Fianna Fáiler's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by red leveller View Post
    On the basis of opinion polls, how can you predict 2 FF seats?

    FF are a toxic brand - transfers will be hard to come by. Martin and McGrath will need about 30% of the first prefs, with a pretty-much 100% solid transfer from Martin to McGrath, in order to take two seats.
    30% achievable and its more likely that FF will take two than FG taking 3 when they'd need 50% on the last effective count a far cry from 33% in 2007 considering FG are up on average just 6% points on their 2007 performance nationally. In terms of transfers they will only come from Dan Boyle with Sinn Féin not likely to transfer in great numbers to FG.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kZrK5m9SGSE - What A Legacy To Leave Behind.

    "Fianna Fáil is the party of Vision, Energy and Ideas not the passive inheritors of events, We are the history makers" - Bertie Ahern

    Economic Left/Right: -3.75
    Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: 5.08

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    If The Banker wants to make allegations about his "neighbours" he should call the Gardai, not post them here "anonymously".

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    Gardai called. 2 hours later still waiting for them to arrive.
    Cigarettes: Ever watch someone die from lung cancer?

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    RepublicanSocialist1798
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    You're quick on the libel damage limitation DC.

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