Follow @PoliticsIE
 
 
 
Page 1 of 9 12345 ... LastLast
Results 1 to 10 of 81

Thread: Cavan - Monaghan

  1. #1
    Politics.ie Member davehiggz's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2009
    Location
    Dublin, Ireland
    Posts
    1,117
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)

    Default Cavan - Monaghan

    Series of threads on each constituency:


    ElectionsIreland.org: 30th Dail - Cavan Monaghan First Preference Votes

    Currently: 3 FF (CC included) 1 FG and 1 SF.

    Sinn Féin's seat is safe and so is Seymour Crawford.
    Joe O'Reilly should bring in a second seat for FG.

    That leaves 2 seats for FF, however polls suggest that they should only get 1 seat returned.

    There's no real way of telling who'd take that seat.

    Paudge Connolly was an independent for there (02-07) so if he runs he probably could take a 5th seat.

    Labour don't seem to have any chance here and so FG may have a shot at 3 seats, however it'd be a huge shift to achieve.

    I predict: 2 FG, 1 SF, 2 FF (or 1 FF and Ind/3rd FG)

  2. #2
    Politics.ie Newbie Fianna Fáiler's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    Dun Laoghaire
    Posts
    53
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)

    Default

    There is not a hope in hell of FG getting a 3rd seat here, they will definitely get a second seat no doubt about that. Labour and the Green's don't have a hope. Unless a strong Independent appears on the scene FF will take 2 seats. Sinn Féin will probably run Charlie Boylan alongside O'Caolain but will not take a second seat.

    Most likely outcome - 2 FF, 2 FG, 1 SF
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kZrK5m9SGSE - What A Legacy To Leave Behind.

    "Fianna Fáil is the party of Vision, Energy and Ideas not the passive inheritors of events, We are the history makers" - Bertie Ahern

    Economic Left/Right: -3.75
    Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: 5.08

  3. #3
    Politics.ie Member
    Join Date
    Oct 2008
    Location
    Irlanda
    Posts
    149
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by davehiggz View Post
    Series of threads on each constituency:


    ElectionsIreland.org: 30th Dail - Cavan Monaghan First Preference Votes

    Currently: 3 FF (CC included) 1 FG and 1 SF.

    Sinn Féin's seat is safe and so is Seymour Crawford.
    Joe O'Reilly should bring in a second seat for FG.

    That leaves 2 seats for FF, however polls suggest that they should only get 1 seat returned.

    There's no real way of telling who'd take that seat.

    Paudge Connolly was an independent for there (02-07) so if he runs he probably could take a 5th seat.

    Labour don't seem to have any chance here and so FG may have a shot at 3 seats, however it'd be a huge shift to achieve.

    I predict: 2 FG, 1 SF, 2 FF (or 1 FF and Ind/3rd FG)
    Seems a reasonable assessment.

    However, I think that FG may run their third candidate in Cavan- possibly Cllr Peter McVitty from Ballyconnell and together with Reillyin Bailieboro and Crawford in the Monaghan end, they could do it - but it would be a long shot.

  4. #4
    Politics.ie Member
    Join Date
    Feb 2009
    Location
    Dublin and Athens
    Posts
    305
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)

    Default

    I think it will be 2 FG, 2 SF and 1 FF. The second SF seat is dubious though, they would be in a battle with FF and possibly a strong independent for the seat.

  5. #5
    Politics.ie Newbie Fianna Fáiler's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    Dun Laoghaire
    Posts
    53
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Herodotus View Post
    I think it will be 2 FG, 2 SF and 1 FF. The second SF seat is dubious though, they would be in a battle with FF and possibly a strong independent for the seat.
    Sinn Féin only got about 10% of the vote in Cavan and over 30% in Monaghan so it's very unlikely they'll take 2 seats with just about 20%.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kZrK5m9SGSE - What A Legacy To Leave Behind.

    "Fianna Fáil is the party of Vision, Energy and Ideas not the passive inheritors of events, We are the history makers" - Bertie Ahern

    Economic Left/Right: -3.75
    Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: 5.08

  6. #6
    Politics.ie Member
    Join Date
    Feb 2009
    Location
    Dublin and Athens
    Posts
    305
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Fianna Fáiler View Post
    Sinn Féin only got about 10% of the vote in Cavan and over 30% in Monaghan so it's very unlikely they'll take 2 seats with just about 20%.
    This constituency is probably the only in the country which is a real SF heartland. I think it is a possibility due to anti- FF satisfaction and FF people in the area preferring to give SF a vote over FG.

  7. #7
    Politics.ie Member
    Join Date
    Jul 2008
    Posts
    7,561
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Herodotus View Post
    This constituency is probably the only in the country which is a real SF heartland. I think it is a possibility due to anti- FF satisfaction and FF people in the area preferring to give SF a vote over FG.
    thier are only two areas in the country which are a sinn fein heartland , all of monaghan and the town of dundalk in louth , cavan is not that strong shinner country , no more than parts of dublin

    i see fianna fail possibly only coming back with one seat here , even minister smith could be in trouble such is the level of anger among farmers

  8. #8
    Politics.ie Member
    Join Date
    Aug 2009
    Location
    26 Counties
    Posts
    473
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)

    Default

    Its an interesting constituency, O'Caolain as a lone SF candiate would top the poll,must be tempting to run a second.Crawford also a certainty.FF will have no where no the quota to get 2 elected given the current state of the country.Hard to even call who'd take the seat for FF, as one poster said "even minister smith could be in trouble such is the level of anger among farmers".O' Reilly should take a 2nd seat for FG and after that it gets interesting.FG may target a 3rd seat but hard to see them pulling it off, FF will hope to take it but it'd be a real dogfight, if connolly ran again itd be hard to see him taking it, so I think SF really have an almost risk free opportunity if they run a 2nd candiate.No one could seriously envisage them taking the seat but its definately a constituency that if there was a backlash against FF that they could make significant gains and cause a bit of a stir

  9. #9

    Default

    Some people are living in dreamland assumming Locals results will be the same in GE.

  10. #10
    Politics.ie Member LDF's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2007
    Posts
    4,173
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)

    Default

    I think it's either a second seat for SF or a 3rd seat for FG.

    SF could run a second Monaghan candidate (from the south of the county). They are overrun with councillors in that part of the conty, many are full time councillors who have been in place for some time. SF will need to demonstrate serious vote management to pull it off though.

    FG will certainly take a second seat. A 3rd seat is a big ask but not impossible given the unpopularity of the current govt.

    Margaret Connolly gained her seat after the swing back to FF at the tail-end of the last election. That swing is going the other way now and she will lose out. Smith could also struggle but would probably survive.

    I don't think the next election will be a good one for independents standing on local issues. The electorate will be consumed with the national issues and will vote accordingly.

Page 1 of 9 12345 ... LastLast

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •