Follow @PoliticsIE
 
 
 
Page 1 of 2 12 LastLast
Results 1 to 10 of 19

Thread: Dublin South

  1. #1
    Politics.ie Member davehiggz's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2009
    Location
    Dublin, Ireland
    Posts
    1,117
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)

    Default Dublin South

    Series of threads on each constituency:


    http://electionsireland.org/result.c...=2007&cons=102
    http://electionsireland.org/result.c...ns=102&ref=124

    Currently: 1 FF, 3 FG and 1 Green

    Alan Shatter
    Olivia Mitchell
    George Lee
    Alex White

    The FFer will be hard to call but looking at how Shay Brennan polled it's clear that a seat is there for them.

    Either him or Senator Maria Corrigan I think

    Tom Kitt won't contest the next election.

    I predict 3 FG, 1 Labour and 1 FF
    Last edited by davehiggz; 5th September 2009 at 12:52 PM.

  2. #2
    Politics.ie Member
    Join Date
    Jun 2009
    Location
    Dublin South
    Posts
    180
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)

    Default

    I would think that M Corrigan would fair out better than Shay Brennan, I don't see how looking at what Shay achieved in the By-Election can give any indication on haw he would perform in a general election as he was the only FF candidate running and still only received around 10,000 number 1 votes, a poor showing on the face of it.....

    Mind you someone last night mention a possibility to me that a certain B Andrews could make a move into DS to fight for a seat as DL looks hairy for him..anyone hear similar?

  3. #3
    Politics.ie Member theoutsider's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2004
    Location
    Dublin South
    Posts
    159
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by davehiggz View Post

    Tom Kitt won't contest the next election.
    Wouldn't bet the farm on that one, he had a newsletter out around the by-election and has been making the rounds at some resident assoications.

  4. #4
    Politics.ie Member QuizMaster's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2004
    Location
    North Inishowen
    Posts
    3,207
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)

    Default

    4 for the FG/Lab party is a tall order.
    E. Ryan could hang on, displacing either A. Shatter or O.Mitchell.
    Or maybe Alex White is living in his own nightmarish groundhog day.
    Or maybe you're right.
    We'll find out soon enough.
    If there is a future, it will be Green.

  5. #5
    Politics.ie Member soubresauts's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2007
    Posts
    2,966
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by QuizMaster View Post
    We'll find out soon enough.
    That's an interesting statement from a Green Party insider.
    15 Jan 2001 -- Fine Gael pledged to end fluoridation because of "serious health concerns".

  6. #6
    Politics.ie Member
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Dublin
    Posts
    211
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)

    Default

    Dublin South was to a degree reflective of the national vote in 2007

    Fianna Fail got 41.3% which was around their national vote share of 41.6%
    Fine Gael got 27%.3 which was the same as their national vote share
    Labour got 10.4% which again was around their national vote share of 10.1%

    However the Greens and PDs did better here than nationally.
    Greens got 11% as opposed to 4.7% nationally
    PDs got 6.6% as opposed to 2.7% nationally

    Unsuprisingly Sinn Fein did worse here than nationally.
    SF got 3% as opposed to 6.9 nationally

    So if we go with the poll from the other day
    FF should get 17%
    FG should get 34%
    Lab should get 24%
    GP 3% should translate to 7%
    SF 10% should translate to 5%

    Yet there will be no significant Independent candidate for the 13%. And we have Geroge Lee also.
    I think it will end up something like
    FF 17%
    FG 45%
    Lab 24%
    GP 7%
    SF 5%
    others 2%

    So 3 Fine Gael seats is no foregone conclusion. They should have the votes but it will take some vote management to reign George Lees vote in.
    Not just that but if he has a surplus, his votes will go all over the place.
    Lee to get in with Mitchell but Shatter to lose out.

    Fianna Fail have the votes for a seat, but who will run? No matter what the combination they will only have enough for a single seat. Will Kitt run?
    If not they must be tempted to run Lahart, Corrigan and Shay Brennan. If they run 3 they could be in trouble and have a lot of transfer leakage. If they run just 2, then someone may be mightily pissed off.

    Labour have to have the guts to run two candidates again. Whilst White should get in, the choice of second candidate will be important. If they could get Ivana Backik or the like (rather than Aidan Culhane) to run, they would be in with a good chance of two seats. Especially if the Second Labour candidate was ahead of Ryan when he is eliminated.

    Ryan is in big trouble and has always relied on transfers to get him home. They wont be so available this time, nor will he hold on to his first pref vote.

    The way I see it is
    Lee
    White
    Mitchell

    now the scrap
    an FFer
    2nd Labour candidate.

    In a mighty scrap for the final two seats the Labour candidate may get enough transfers from FF and Ryan to overtake Shatter.

  7. #7

    Default

    Love the assumption that Lee will top the Poll while reality is Shatter and Mitchell will be doing everything they can to ensure he leaves the Dail.

    The idea that FG candidates are competing with other parties is a fallacy (its just as true for FF), they are competing for own seat first and doing everything they can to eliminate a threat now and in the future.

  8. #8
    Politics.ie Newbie Fianna Fáiler's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    Dun Laoghaire
    Posts
    53
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)

    Default

    Lee and Mitchell will take the first 2 seats exceeding the quota helping to get Mitchell over the Line, The Sinn Féin candidate will be eliminated 1st, followed by the 3rd FFer who will help get 1 FF'er over the line with the final seat between Ryan, Shatter and the 2nd FFer with the second FFer eliminated and Ryan taking the 5th seat ahead of Shatter.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kZrK5m9SGSE - What A Legacy To Leave Behind.

    "Fianna Fáil is the party of Vision, Energy and Ideas not the passive inheritors of events, We are the history makers" - Bertie Ahern

    Economic Left/Right: -3.75
    Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: 5.08

  9. #9
    Politics.ie Member Simbo67's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2004
    Location
    New York
    Posts
    574
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Fianna Fáiler View Post
    Lee and Mitchell will take the first 2 seats exceeding the quota helping to get Mitchell over the Line, The Sinn Féin candidate will be eliminated 1st, followed by the 3rd FFer who will help get 1 FF'er over the line with the final seat between Ryan, Shatter and the 2nd FFer with the second FFer eliminated and Ryan taking the 5th seat ahead of Shatter.
    Three FFers? Really?

  10. #10
    Politics.ie Newbie Fianna Fáiler's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    Dun Laoghaire
    Posts
    53
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Simbo67 View Post
    Three FFers? Really?
    Brennan, Lahart and Mitchell but Lahart isnt a certainty.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kZrK5m9SGSE - What A Legacy To Leave Behind.

    "Fianna Fáil is the party of Vision, Energy and Ideas not the passive inheritors of events, We are the history makers" - Bertie Ahern

    Economic Left/Right: -3.75
    Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: 5.08

Page 1 of 2 12 LastLast

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •