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Thread: What seats are FF likely to lose in the next GE???

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    Politics.ie Member Darren Mac an Phríora's Avatar
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    Default What seats are FF likely to lose in the next GE???

    I couldn't see a thread on this although I'd be surprised if there aren't any.

    Well???

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    Politics.ie Member wombat's Avatar
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    It depends when an election is held and what the alternative on offer is. Do not underestimate FF's powers of recovery.
    Beer is proof that God loves us - Benjamin Franklin

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    Politics.ie Member DaveM's Avatar
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    They may lose one in Wicklow (last GE - FF 2, FG 2, Lab 1). Behan and Roche are both Bray based. Behan, who resigned the whip last year, is pretty disillusioned by all accounts and may not run next time out, either for FF or as an Indo. FG will at least hold their two with a shout of three - they did well in the locals, particularly Simon Harris in Greystones who, although very young, would be a good third candidate. Labour are also in with a fighting shout of getting two seats - they've come very close in the past. SF are active enough around Wicklow but I'd find it hard to see them being in with a shout of knicking a seat. However a strong SF showing could mean more transfers for Labour.

    I'd say FG 2/3, Lab 2/1, FF 1 next time out. FG or Lab to nick that second FF seat.

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    Well not John O'Donoghue's seat in Kerry anyway. Unless he has the morals to resign over the expenses scandal. One definite seat for them so. Sorry, haven't a clue about where they might lose seats, but a hell of a lot I sincerely hope.

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    Politics.ie Newbie Fianna Fáiler's Avatar
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    Seats in Danger of being lost (From Last Election)

    Bobby Alyward or MJ Nolan in Carlow Kilkenny to FG
    Rory O'Hanlon in Cavan Monaghan to FG
    Michael Ahern in Cork East to FG
    Noel O'Flynn in Cork North Central to Lab
    Batt O'Keefe in Cork North West to FG
    Cyprian Brady in Dublin Central to FG
    Darragh O'Brien in Dublin North to Lab
    Noel Ahern in Dublin North West to SF
    Seamus Brennan in Dublin South to FG
    Sean Ardagh in Dublin South Central to Lab
    Conor Lenihan in Dublin South West to Lab
    Mary Hanifan or Barry Andrews in Dun Laoghaire to PBP
    Michael Fitzpatrick in Kildare North to Ind
    Sean Power in Kildare South to FG
    Peter Power in Limerick City
    John Cregan or Niall Collins in Limerick to FG
    Thomas Byrne or Mary Wallace in Meath East to Lab
    Jimmy Devins in Sligo North Leitrim to FG
    Martin Manseragh in Tipperary South to Ind
    Brendan Kenneally in Waterford
    Joe Behan in Wicklow to Ind

    So that's 20 Seats in grave Danger, Mind you the same might have been said in 2004 and look what happened in 2007.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kZrK5m9SGSE - What A Legacy To Leave Behind.

    "Fianna Fáil is the party of Vision, Energy and Ideas not the passive inheritors of events, We are the history makers" - Bertie Ahern

    Economic Left/Right: -3.75
    Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: 5.08

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    Politics.ie Member FutureTaoiseach's Avatar
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    Based on the Sunday Tribune study extrapolating GE results from the local elections (if they were the same),the govt parties would lose 35 seats. So FF would lose 28 seats either from losses in the following constituencies, or because of the creation of new constituencies: *new constituencies

    Carlow-Kilkenny: -1
    Cavan-Monaghan: -1
    Cork East: -1
    CNC: -1
    CNW: -1
    CSC: -1
    Dublin Central: -1
    Dublin Nth: -1
    Dub NW: -2
    Dub Sth: -1
    Dub SC: -1
    Dub SW: -1
    Dun Laoghaire: -2
    Galway E: -1
    Galway W: -1
    Kerry North-West Limerick*: FF wins 1 here
    Kildare Nth: -1
    Kildare Sth: -1
    Limerick city*: FF would get 1 seat here
    Limerick*: FF would get 1 seat here
    Louth: FF (-1)
    Meath East: -1
    Meath West: -1
    Sligo/Leitrim North: -1
    Tipperary South: -1
    Waterford: -1
    Wicklow: -1
    Last edited by FutureTaoiseach; 8th August 2009 at 02:38 PM.

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    Politics.ie Member DaveM's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by asset test View Post
    Well not John O'Donoghue's seat in Kerry anyway. Unless he has the morals to resign over the expenses scandal. One definite seat for them so. Sorry, haven't a clue about where they might lose seats, but a hell of a lot I sincerely hope.
    You reckon? Michael Lowry is still doing pretty well. The sad reality is that many people really don't give a damn about politicians having sticky fingers and the O'Donoghue expenses story will probably be long forgotten by the time the next GE comes round. In any event he'll be automatically returned as the CC so it's academic anyway.

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    Quote Originally Posted by DaveM View Post
    You reckon? Michael Lowry is still doing pretty well. The sad reality is that many people really don't give a damn about politicians having sticky fingers and the O'Donoghue expenses story will probably be long forgotten by the time the next GE comes round. In any event he'll be automatically returned as the CC so it's academic anyway.
    That's what I meant about JOD, he is CC. and automatically returned (unless he has the cojones to resign that is!)

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    They'll lose one in Kildare North. There are two FF TDs there. Michael Fitzpatrick who has been FF here for years, former councilor, former Mayor and so on. There is also Aine Brady who has been FF for about 20 minuites before teh election, former Kitt, possibly still a schoolteacher... the embodyment of everything that is wrong with Fianna Fail.

    Knowing the danger of losing a seat in in Kildare North FF decided they needed to up the profile of at least one candidate there. They, of couse, chose the parachute candidate, of the Kitt dynasty and ardent Bertie supporter, Aine Brady over the well known and well liked, hard working public servant with a proven track record and made Brady a Minister for State (With responsibility for Photo ops and making weird claims about transport).

    The same woman who thinks it's quicker to fly from Shannon than Dublin for people who live in Clane... crackers!
    Happiness is a dry martini and a good woman … or a bad woman.
    –George Burns

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    Quote Originally Posted by Fianna Fáiler View Post
    Seats in Danger of being lost (From Last Election)

    Bobby Alyward or MJ Nolan in Carlow Kilkenny to FG
    Mary Hanifan or Barry Andrews in Dun Laoghaire to PBP
    Joe Behan in Wicklow to Ind

    .
    Hope I'm not being pedantic but I disagree on some of those; Carlow Kilkenny seat will be green lost to FG (Carlow votes for Carlow candidate) but FF lose to Labour in Kilkenny

    Hanafin or Andrews to lose as Dun Laoghaire/Rathdown drops a seat but Greens to lose to PBP

    Also John Browne's seat to be lost to FG, Browne unlikely to run, Liam Twomey to regain for FG

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