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Thread: If a GE happened in the morning, what would happen in CNC and CSC?

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    Default If a GE happened in the morning, what would happen in CNC and CSC?

    Just wanted to know people's thoughts.

    Certainly not two seats for FF on North Central, Reckon O'Flynn to lose out. Barry has been tipped by some, but no votes in Blarney LEA for SP, and little enough votes outside of his own core in northside, so I think thats unrealistic.

    Lynch is safe, as is Allen, and one FF, Kelleher i would say. Fourth seat be a toss up between FG and SF, id go for Sf on basis they will have SP and some WP transfers coming from behind them if the can continue in the race until the end.

    Im going for

    Lynch
    Allen
    Kelleher
    O Brien

    On South central, polls suggest that FF do not have the vote to hold two seats here. Still two very very strong TD's here, and I think they may have enough of a popular vote to hold on. If anyone is to capitalise here, probably FG. Labour not strong enough to field a second, Boyle will be demolished. Sf wll put in a very good showing, but will still be off the pace. Unless a surprise Indo (im thinking of Mick Finn) throws their hat in the ring. That all said, if Fg get their act together they could bring in buttimer. Think Ff could just do enough here.

    Coveney
    Martin
    Lynch
    Clune
    McGrath.

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    Politics.ie Newbie Fianna Fáiler's Avatar
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    I doubt Allen will be running again in CNC i'd say FG will run Gerry Kelly and Colm Burke thus failing to the a second seat. FF, FG and Lab have will 1 each with the final seat between SF, Lab and FF with with SF or Lab more likely to make a gain. If FF run 2 candidates in South Central we should hold the two and should not risk running 3 candidates. South Central likely to remain the same.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kZrK5m9SGSE - What A Legacy To Leave Behind.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Fianna Fáiler View Post
    South Central likely to remain the same.
    party wise I agree but not personality wise I do think Buttimer will take Clune's seat other than that it will be as was.

    Regarding NC I'd agree FF would lose a seat although not sure who would lose out of the two, labour could snaek the last seat especially if that guy from Glanmire who polled 4k plus in the locals is Kathleen's running mate, as of now I'd call it 1 FF 1 FG 2 Lab

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    In SC a lot depends on who FF run.

    If they run three, it will be next to impossible to take two seats.

    So assuming they run the two sitting TDs and them only.

    The absence of John Dennehy becomes very good news for Ciaran Lynch, who, with Labour's national popularity and a decent first-term as a TD to factor in too, would probably end up elected on the first count. Dennehy's absence would also benefit Sinn Fein - but they're too far back to figure - and Gerry Buttimer.

    Martin and Lynch are certainties.

    If Buttimer takes a seat, it's more likely to be at the expense of Coveney or McGrath.

    Clune has being putting in the long hours of local slog, while Coveney has been concentrating on national issues. While we need good national polticians, it doesn't get you elected in this country.

    But it's probably only 50-50 at the moment for whether FF would take a second seat. With McGrath likely to poll closer to 6,500 this time, no surplus coming from Martin and Dennehy's vote as likely to go to other local candidates as stay in the party, he'll be clinging on, watching the other challengers gradually closing the gap.


    North Central depends so much on the people on the FG and Labour tickets that it's hard to call.
    - Will Bernard Allen run again?
    - Will a family member replace him? (I'm guessing No as we didn't see one in the locals).
    - Will Paul Bradford switch to Cork NC?
    - Will John Gilroy be on the Labour ticket as well as Kathleen Lynch?

    If Gilroy does run, I'd say he could really steal votes from Billy Kelleher. I'd still favour Kelleher to take the FF seat, but he'd be nowhere near the top of the poll.

    The split is likely to be 2 city and 2 county based TDs, so again the question of whether Allen runs become important.

    Assuming the line up is Allen, Kelly, Kelleher, O'Flynn, Lynch, Gilroy, O'Brien, Barry, I'll go with - Allen, Lynch, Kelly, Kelleher.

    If it's Burke, Kelly, Kelleher, O'Flynn, Lynch, Gilroy, O'Brien, Barry, I'll go with Burke, Kelleher, Lynch, Gilroy.

    If it's Burke, Kelly, Kelleher, O'Flynn, Lynch, O'Brien, Barry, I'll go with Kelly, Kelleher, Lynch, O'Brien.
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    Politics.ie Member FutureTaoiseach's Avatar
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    If it went the same way as the locals, this is what the Tribune says would happen:
    Quote Originally Posted by Sunday Tribune
    Cork North-Central (4)
    Fianna Fáil, with just under one quota in the constituency, would definitely lose one of its two TDs, Billy Kelleher or Noel O'Flynn. Labour with well over a quota would certainly hold its seat but would Fine Gael's 28% be enough to take a second seat? Given independents and 'others' secured 18% of the vote, the Socialist Party's Mick Barry could not be ruled out.

    Outcome: FG 1 (n/c), FF 1 (-1), Labour 1 (n/c) Socialist Party 1 (+1)

    Cork South-Central (5)

    The collapse in Fianna Fáil's vote to just over 21% in this constituency means that one of the party's two deputies would almost certainly lose their seat. Fine Gael senator Jerry Buttimer would be the best placed to take the seat, bringing FG's total in the constituency to three. The Labour seat looks rock-solid.

    Outcome: FG 3 (+1), FF 1 (-1), Labour 1 (n/c)

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    Politics.ie Member jpc's Avatar
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    Gerry Kelly could be the man to watch.
    I stand to be corrected, but didn't he clock up 5k or so the last time out?
    Gilroy is a runner also.
    Its only a chat, we ain't the world council.

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    The FF seat that will be lost in NC will go to FG because the balance in the constituency has been changed by the boundary review with thousands of rural votes brought in and thereby preventing what otherwise would have been a SF/SP battle for the 4th seat. Noel O'Flynn is even contemplating both FF seats could be lost here.

    With regards to SC I think FF could hold both but any further slippage will cost a seat. FF did particularly badly in the city. If FF were to lose one then a 3rd FG seat is the only possible outcome, although that would appear unlikely at the present. If FF stick with their 2 TD's and a City/County split then they should retain the 2.

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    Quote Originally Posted by FutureTaoiseach View Post
    If it went the same way as the locals, this is what the Tribune says would happen:
    I would agree with the Tribune on CNC. The SP are far more transfer friendly than SF and would take a FF seat. I disagree on CSC, where personalities will be key. I cannot see FG taking three and I think it would be "as you were".
    Last edited by Keith-M; 13th July 2009 at 11:46 AM.
    Thank you for the six thousand likes.

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    Quote Originally Posted by FutureTaoiseach View Post
    If it went the same way as the locals, this is what the Tribune says would happen:
    The problem with the Tribune analysis is that it doesn't take local factors into account. People will often vote for a candidate in their area rather than on party lines. An example of this last time out was the elimination of the Sinn Fein candidate in Cork SC. There was a very high transfer to John Dennehy of FF, simply because they both got their votes out of similar areas of Togher.

    Because of that, I'd say North Central will go 2 urban, 2 rural and South Central will go either 3 urban, 2 rural or 4 urban, 1 rural (suburbs like Rochestown and Grange tend to spread their votes between urban and rural candidates, which makes it harder to work out).

    Also, I can't work out why the Tribune reckons that Mick Barry is likely to beat the Sinn Fein candidate. He was 1,700 votes behind last time and Sinn Fein took a lot more votes in North Central in the locals.

    Quote Originally Posted by jpc View Post
    Gerry Kelly could be the man to watch.
    I stand to be corrected, but didn't he clock up 5k or so the last time out?
    Gilroy is a runner also.
    Kelly's main problem is where he can pick up transfers (to a lesser extent, being based in Knockraha, which is a small rural community at the edge of the constituency is also a drawback). With lots of small left-wing parties behing him, he could get hauled in. Last time, he was 1,400 ahead of the SF candidate on the first count, but that had been closed to 500 by the time eliminations were out of the way. If there's a stronger left vote this time, he could be even worse affected. However, if FG could split their vote more effectively, it would go some way to eliminating this weakness.
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    Politics.ie Member jpc's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by locke View Post

    Kelly's main problem is where he can pick up transfers (to a lesser extent, being based in Knockraha, which is a small rural community at the edge of the constituency is also a drawback). With lots of small left-wing parties behing him, he could get hauled in. Last time, he was 1,400 ahead of the SF candidate on the first count, but that had been closed to 500 by the time eliminations were out of the way. If there's a stronger left vote this time, he could be even worse affected. However, if FG could split their vote more effectively, it would go some way to eliminating this weakness.
    Very active in the Glanmire area along with Gilroy.
    Both are very well respected in an area with approx 20k constituients in a 5 km radius.
    Its only a chat, we ain't the world council.

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