Follow @PoliticsIE
 
 
 
Page 1 of 7 12345 ... LastLast
Results 1 to 10 of 65

Thread: Brian Lucey completely wrong about housing market: Irish Times

  1. #1
    Politics.ie Member
    Join Date
    May 2007
    Posts
    202
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)

    Default Brian Lucey completely wrong about housing market: Irish Times

    In yesterday’s Irish Times (June 30th) Harry McGee has a report on Prof. Brian Lucey’s December 2005 prediction of ongoing growth in the housing market and the potential for subprime lending by Irish mortgage lenders.

    In an analysis prepared for mortgage company Homeloan Management Limited in December 2005, Prof Lucey dismissed the notion of an unsustainable property bubble and forecast the Irish housing market would continue to grow at a “modest but still significant pace”. He also identified more scope for increased mortgage lending by financial institutions by means of subprime mortgages, 100 per cent mortgages and equity-release loans.

    TCD professor admits being wrong about housing bubble - The Irish Times - Tue, Jun 30, 2009

    Could he have been more wrong?

    McGee’s article contains some memorable quotes from Lucey – who admits he got it wrong (he could hardly deny it!):
    “In retrospect I was wrong. Hindsight is 20-20. That is life. Does that invalidate the analyses I am doing now? Not necessarily. We will know for sure [about Nama] in 10-15 years.”
    “This is not physics. It’s a social science. People are looking for more certainty that can be given.”
    “I think we need to be cautious and humble.”



    Lucey has become something of a media whore, riding the banking crisis for all it’s worth. He’s on radio, tv and in the press on an almost daily basis – indeed he’s featured on multiple radio & tv stations on the same day (it must be a tidy little earner to boost that modest academic salary from TCD).

    Lucey was also one of the 20 academics who penned an article for the Irish Times, which is often cited as proof that nationalisation of the banks must be the right solution – the clever academics have told us so!

    Reading/hearing/seeing the regular output of Prof. Lucey, you wouldn't be aware of any of the above "health warnings", he leaves no room for doubt as to his certainty that he is right and the Govt is wrong.

    He was, presumably, one of the main targets of Alan Ahearne’s barbed quip about there being two types of economist – “those who know they don’t know and those who don’t know they don’t know”.

    Let’s hope that Lucey remembers his own “health warnings” the next time he addresses the nation on the banking crisis or the economy.

    Effin’ academics. Time for a cull - An Bord Snip Nua please note.
    Last edited by mollox; 1st July 2009 at 10:36 AM.

  2. #2
    Politics.ie Member DS-09's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2009
    Location
    Greater Dublin
    Posts
    157
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)

    Default

    I see your still visiting your favourite discredited website

  3. #3
    Politics.ie Member
    Join Date
    Jan 2007
    Location
    Dublin
    Posts
    817
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by DS-09 View Post
    I see your still visiting your favourite discredited website
    Discredited by whom?

    Evidently you're still visiting it yourself.
    The future saviour of the Irish Economy: Charles Darwin

  4. #4
    Politics.ie Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2008
    Posts
    701
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by mollox View Post

    Lucey has become something of a media whore, riding the banking crisis for all it’s worth. He’s on radio, tv and in the press on an almost daily basis – indeed he’s featured on multiple radio & tv stations on the same day (it must be a tidy little earner to boost that modest academic salary from TCD).
    Yeah, the recent "debate" over NAMA between him and Alan Ahearne seemed as much about ego, and being seen to be right, rather than actually helping the country.

  5. #5
    Politics.ie Member
    Join Date
    Jul 2003
    Posts
    477
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)

    Default

    “In retrospect I was wrong. Hindsight is 20-20. That is life. Does that invalidate the analyses I am doing now? Not necessarily. We will know for sure [about Nama] in 10-15 years.”
    “This is not physics. It’s a social science. People are looking for more certainty that can be given.”
    “I think we need to be cautious and humble.”
    Re-read his recent pronouncements in the light of the above and have a giggle. Whatever you think about his analysis, he has been ridiculously dogmatic. Now apparently he's telling us we were supposed to know to take his definitive statements with a pinch of salt all along.
    Worth breaking my "no sig" rule for: http://cedarlounge.wordpress.com/

  6. #6
    Politics.ie Member
    Join Date
    May 2008
    Posts
    4,952
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)

    Default

    Nice to see somebody finally puncturing Lucey's bubble.

    The defferance shown by the media to the likes of Lucey and McWilliams is staggering.

    The basic cocktail seems to be that if you are opposed to Government policy and an academic you are omnipotent.
    A demagogue is someone who will preach doctrines he knows to be untrue to men he knows to be idiots.

  7. #7
    Politics.ie Newbie
    Join Date
    Sep 2006
    Posts
    38
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by mollox View Post
    Lucey has become something of a media whore, riding the banking crisis for all it’s worth. He’s on radio, tv and in the press on an almost daily basis – indeed he’s featured on multiple radio & tv stations on the same day (it must be a tidy little earner to boost that modest academic salary from TCD).

    Lucey was also one of the 20 academics who penned an article for the Irish Times, which is often cited as proof that nationalisation of the banks must be the right solution – the clever academics have told us so!

    Reading/hearing/seeing the regular output of Prof. Lucey, you wouldn't be aware of any of the above "health warnings", he leaves no room for doubt as to his certainty that he is right and the Govt is wrong.

    He was, presumably, one of the main targets of Alan Ahearne’s barbed quip about there being two types of economist – “those who know they don’t know and those who don’t know they don’t know”.

    Let’s hope that Lucey remembers his own “health warnings” the next time he addresses the nation on the banking crisis or the economy.

    Effin’ academics. Time for a cull - An Bord Snip Nua please note.
    While I don't always agree with him or his style, I'd just make a couple of points:
    - You don't get paid for doing media appearances. It may be about ego, it's certainly not about boosting his salary
    - I'm not sure if you read the irisheconomy.ie blog. On that he has been very open about how little anyone knows in this scenario. He always responds to questions and comment put to him on it and has said on many occasions that he will change his mind if/when the evidence changes.

    It would be worthwhile reading his and particularly Karl Whelan's many contributions on the NAMA/nationalisation debate (and also the lengthy discussions after each contribution), before just writing him - and the entire pro-nationalisation (or rather anti-NAMA) camp - off because he called the housing market wrong.

  8. #8
    Politics.ie Newbie
    Join Date
    May 2009
    Posts
    39
    Mentioned
    1 Post(s)

    Default

    I think they should all put a lid on it for a while and let the inevitable take its course. Economics is an inexact science in which forecasting seems to have very little connection with the ordinary understanding of the concept.

  9. #9
    Politics.ie Member
    Join Date
    Jan 2009
    Posts
    318
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Wendy View Post
    I think they should all put a lid on it for a while and let the inevitable take its course. Economics is an inexact science in which forecasting seems to have very little connection with the ordinary understanding of the concept.
    The problem isn't with economics, its with the people paying the economists.

  10. #10
    Politics.ie Member
    Join Date
    May 2007
    Location
    the equivalent of Ceaucescu's Romania
    Posts
    624
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)

    Default

    Whatever all the professors are saying do the opposite- it's like a golden rule

Page 1 of 7 12345 ... LastLast

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •