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Thread: Australia Avoids Recession

  1. #1
    Politics.ie Member dmc444's Avatar
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    Default Australia Avoids Recession

    Australia has bucked the trend and this week has reveal that it has narrowly avoided recession.

    The economy grew 0.4% in the first quater of 2009.

    The government also introduced a number of multi-billion dollar stimulus packages, including increased infrastructure spending and cash handouts to most Australians since the end of last year to lift consumer spending.

    Unemployment is still rising and Business investment is still expected to fall by around 20% as well as falling exports but Oz is still the only advanced economy not in a recession.

    BBC NEWS | Business | Australia able to avoid recession
    'A defeatist attitude now would surely lead to defeat, it primarly a question of whether we have confidence in ourselves and the dilligence and determination of our people,We can't opt out of the future.' Sean Lemass (1965)

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    And they're not part of the EU even.

    Fancy that.
    Obama - the first half White US President

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    Politics.ie Newbie 142857's Avatar
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    Recession dodged for the wrong reasons - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)

    Australia has avoided a technical recession - but for all the wrong reasons.

    It's great news for the Federal Government and it is fair to say that Australia's economy is in better shape than most economies in the Western world.

    But the truth is that despite the positive number the March quarter GDP numbers point to an economy in sickness, not in health.

    Bear in mind, this is a highly technical measure. The main contribution to economic "growth" in the quarter was a collapse in imports, though a small growth in net exports helped too.

    Thank the farmers for the boost to exports. Exports of cereal grains in particular were up sharply, but prices fell.

    Why did imports fall? Largely because business investment has collapsed and companies aren't importing the capital equipment and production goods that they were during the good times.

    That points towards rising unemployment as do all the forward indicators on jobs.

    Look at the terms of trade (what Australia gets for its exports versus what it pays for its imports). The terms of trade fell 7.8 per cent. It was the surge in the terms of trade during the minerals boom that helped to boost national income, company profits and swell the Government coffers.

    The trend is now very much in reverse.

    So, national spending slumps and we escape recession on the arbitrary definition of two consecutive quarters of negative growth.

    It just goes to show the silliness of getting hung up on the "technical" definition of recession favoured by some in the dismal science. The weird thing is that the economy has avoided shrinking because it's in a bad way.

    The positive economic growth figure was all but guaranteed after yesterday's numbers on imports and exports, but those numbers were in fact a worry.

    Chris Caton, one of the wise old men of economics here, says: "The so-called "technical" definition of a recession - two successive quarters of declining GDP - is nonsense; we know we're in a recession because of what has already happened to unemployment!"

    That's how most Australians will measure how the economy is travelling. When people lose their jobs, watch their children struggle to enter the workforce, or see their work hours and incomes dwindle.

    Footnote: It would have been a huge shock if the Reserve Bank had cut the official interest rate again, but the tone is dovish and the door is open.

    The statement explaining the decision maintains the central bank's optimism that the world economy is stabilising after the sharpest slump since the Great Depression but adds: "The prospect of inflation declining over the medium term suggests that scope remains for some further easing of monetary policy, if needed."

  4. #4
    lochlannach
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    Australian economy hitting the skids - that mining boom is now a nostalgic memory.

    So Much For China? Aussie Unemployment Misses By Most On Record, Surges To 12-Year Highs | Zero Hedge

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    Politics.ie Member Analyzer's Avatar
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    Unemployment is creeping upwards.

    China has enough skyscrapers, and too much real estate debt, for the medium term.
    Coveney's ambition is the be Ireland's next EU Commissar and Ireland will pay a price as he builds his CV to position himself sufficiently loyal to the nEU empire.

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    My niece is a qualified Social Worker specialising in the area of dealing with extremely vulnerable/troubled kids, and would normally have been snapped up by Social Services in Melbourne, but there's only agency work. There appears to be a freeze on public sector jobs out there as well.

    On a separate topic, because I have, what I would call, a primary email address, I get incorrectly addressed emails from time to time, and one of them is intended for some Queensland builder....I got the following from the Queensland Building Commission

    The Queensland building and construction industry generates around $60 billion each year and is one of the pillars of the Queensland economy.

    To help ensure it has a bright future, we are reviewing the Building Act 1975 and the building certification process to help cut costs, reduce delays and remove unnecessary regulations for industry.

    As part of the review we have been consulting widely with industry through a series of forums held across the State and by giving industry participants the chance to complete an online survey.

    More than 400 people have either come along to a forum, or completed the survey and I thank everyone who took the time to share their views.

    A report outlining the findings of the review is due in September and I will be in touch at that time to keep you up to date with the latest developments.

    We are also introducing changes for the Queensland Building and Construction Commission (QBCC) which include:

    • Extending the grounds for disciplinary action to include the failure of a contractor to pay a subcontractor in accordance with the contract

    • Cutting red tape by allowing licences to be renewed every three years instead of every year

    • Removing the need for certain licensees to provide their financial statements every time they renew their licence

    For more information about these changes you contact the QBCC on 139333 or visit Queensland Building and Construction Commission.
    Fianna Fail, Micheal Martin - New Captain, Same Titanic.

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    It was a good election for the Australian Labour Party to lose last year to Abbott's Liberals. I hear Labour are ahead in the polls now in Australia even though the Liberals are trying to tackle the spending excesses of the Rudd/Gillard period (2007-13).

    Yep the mining boom is over in Oz and maybe the long housing bubble will be over shortly as well.

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    Well in the long term Australia is still a desert, unpopulated, and remote. Unlike Northern Africa, Europe and western Russia, and Asia, there is a reason that for 9000 billion trillion years basically no one lived in Australia.

    It will be within a generation a sort of parochial semi-Asian country. Like an Isle of Man for China.

  9. #9
    Gimpanzee
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    Quote Originally Posted by frequency View Post
    Well in the long term Australia is still a desert, unpopulated, and remote. Unlike Northern Africa, Europe and western Russia, and Asia, there is a reason that for 9000 billion trillion years basically no one lived in Australia.

    It will be within a generation a sort of parochial semi-Asian country. Like an Isle of Man for China.
    Can't make out if this is stupidity or performance art.

  10. #10
    Politics.ie Member daveL's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by frequency View Post
    Well in the long term Australia is still a desert, unpopulated, and remote. Unlike Northern Africa, Europe and western Russia, and Asia, there is a reason that for 9000 billion trillion years basically no one lived in Australia.

    It will be within a generation a sort of parochial semi-Asian country. Like an Isle of Man for China.
    that's proper cuckoo

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