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Thread: Why???

  1. #1
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    Default Why???

    has no FG led government ever been re-elected?

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    Well Labour let us down last time...
    Ireland interests are best secured within a more dynamic EU. Vote YES to Lisbon.

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    No simple answers to that question.....

    Generally speaking though FG will always be involved in a Coalition, and coalitions will always be more difficult to re-elect than single party FF governments, or FF+ PDs/Independents

    But here we go anyway:

    The Inter Party governments of the 40's and 50's were always going to be difficult to re-elect, considering the splintered nature of the anti-FF half of the Dail. It was pot luck really.
    However, its worth noting that FG support increased substantially in 1951, even though they lost power. Ther same thing happened in 1997.

    Cosgrave's government failed to be re-elected due to the serious political miscalculation of the timing of the election. Oh, and the small matter of FF buying the election, which the voters spent the next 15 years paying for.

    Fitzgeralds first government (June '81-Feb. '82) failed to be re-elected due to the vagries of the electoral system.
    The FG vote increased, (which showed public approval for Bruton's budget, contrary to the urban legends) but we lost seats.
    The FG vote again increased in November '82.

    The exit from power in 1987 was a done deal. Relations with Labour had all but ceased, and th PDs were doing enormous damage.

    The Rainbow lost power for a couple of reasons:
    1) Labour ************************************ up, and were repaid in kind for their treachery in 1993.
    2) There was a concrete alternative on offer (take note all you traitorous anti-Rabbitte zealots)
    3) The outgoing Government had a good, but not great, campaign. Fine Gael seemed to lose on the PR battle on the Crime issue- which seems perverse now, as violent crime had fallen by nearly a fifth during Nora Owen's time at Justice.
    4) Labour also made a balls of the timing of the election. They wanted to go early (in June, as was the case) whereas (anecdotally at least) the FG leadership wanted to wait until closer to the expiration of the term in October/November. FG were proved right.

    1997 is the agreed to be the election that the Rainbow should have won.
    John Bruton had very high opinion ratings, whereas his opponent was perceived as being a weak leader with a poor grasp of the issues. You will remember that Bruton thrashed Ahern in the televised debate that week (as Noonan would do 5 years later), which was incidentally the highest TAM ratings for an RTE political/current affairs ever.
    There was unprecedented economic growth and job creation; falling crime; and a Government facing the electorate as a united force.
    But it wasn't to be.

    Interestingly: FG support increased substantially in 1997, as it had in 1951, and in February 82.
    Suggesting that the public wanted FG in government, but wither because of the electoral system, or public dislike for Labour, it just didn't happen
    "The IRA Army Council have a history of telling the truth. If they say they didn't do it, then I believe them" - Bertie Ahern, speaking after the murder of Det. Garda Jerry McCabe

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    Politics.ie Member rockofcashel's Avatar
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    Or maybe the public considered them all to be stone cold useless
    1,197 people agree with me.. how many agree with you ?

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    Quote Originally Posted by rockofcashel
    Or maybe the public considered them all to be stone cold useless
    Maybe your selective eyes didn't read my reference to John Bruton's high approval ratings, and the successes of FG when exiting government in 51, 57, 81 and 1997.

    nd yet, all I hear is Blah Blah Blah.......
    "The IRA Army Council have a history of telling the truth. If they say they didn't do it, then I believe them" - Bertie Ahern, speaking after the murder of Det. Garda Jerry McCabe

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    Look basically, Fianna Fáil are the quintessential Government party, but ever so often the people get bored with them and vote your crowd in. Then they go back to normal. It's not rocket science.
    "John Bull has got his hand down your pants and his fist around your bollox and you can't see it."

  7. #7

    Default Re: Why???

    Quote Originally Posted by Gladstone
    has no FG led government ever been re-elected?
    Because no FG goverment has ever done anything to make the Irish people want to re-elect them, and plenty of reasons not to re-elect them.

    It's simple really.

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    Default Re: Why???

    Quote Originally Posted by padraig
    Quote Originally Posted by Gladstone
    has no FG led government ever been re-elected?
    Because no FG goverment has ever done anything to make the Irish people want to re-elect them, and plenty of reasons not to re-elect them.

    It's simple really.
    Sigh........such brilliant analysis.

    See my first post.
    "The IRA Army Council have a history of telling the truth. If they say they didn't do it, then I believe them" - Bertie Ahern, speaking after the murder of Det. Garda Jerry McCabe

  9. #9

    Default Re: Why???

    Quote Originally Posted by BarryW
    Quote Originally Posted by padraig
    Quote Originally Posted by Gladstone
    has no FG led government ever been re-elected?
    Because no FG goverment has ever done anything to make the Irish people want to re-elect them, and plenty of reasons not to re-elect them.

    It's simple really.
    Sigh........such brilliant analysis.

    See my first post.
    BarryW, why write Half a page, when three short lines says the same thing

  10. #10
    Politics.ie Member rockofcashel's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by BarryW
    Quote Originally Posted by rockofcashel
    Or maybe the public considered them all to be stone cold useless
    Maybe your selective eyes didn't read my reference to John Bruton's high approval ratings, and the successes of FG when exiting government in 51, 57, 81 and 1997.

    nd yet, all I hear is Blah Blah Blah.......
    ]

    First of all Barry, it was just a flippant comment I made cause I couldn't be arsed thinking about it on a friday evening, especially as I was getting ready to head off to Tommy Tiernan. I also said it because I knew it would ellicit exactly the reponse from you that it did.

    Childish? Yes. Mea Culpa. But I was in a giddy mood, Tommy and all that you know.

    Of course I read your post, and its very reasoned analysis regarding Brutal. However, for all your praise of John the Great you still didn't answer the substantive issue, that being how come they couldn't get re-elected.

    Unfortunately, I have to defer to the time honoured answer. Because of electoral pacts between FG and Labour, Labour voters who tend to have little problem with FG, just tend to cut out the middleman and go straight to FG, while those in Labour who have a problem with FG, tend to abondon Labour altogether.

    Thats why Labour seems to let you down each time there is a pact, and probably the reason why they will let you down again.

    Its simple mathematics really. We have 43 consituencies in the next election.

    To win a majority in this, FG will probably have to win 2 seats in 15 or 16 of the 4 seaters, along with 2 seats in many of the five seaters.

    While the five seaters are possible, if improbable in many, DSC, DL ect, they would need to up their first preference vote to around 33 - 34% first preference in the 4 seaters. Even on the very good performamces they had in the LE last year, they still only managed 29% of the first preference vote.

    So to up their game, they need an extra 5%. History tends to show, that any such gain would be made at the expense of Labour, and once again the Labour leg of the coalition will let you down.

    FG will most likely up their seats to the high 40's, maybe even on a good day, the low 50's. However, with Labour once again in the low 20's, and possibly only the high teens, I think that the FG/Lab coalition will be about 10-12 seats short. Even the Greens won't be able to make that up, and if you look at the last IMS poll, a FG/Lab/Grn/Ind coalition is even less favoured than a FF/SF one.

    probably increasing their seats by 50% or more, will be heralded by FG as a resounding success no doubt, but Labour will be fried, and most likely will vow never to enter a pact with FG again.

    FG, with no chance of imroving or entering Govt in such a scenario will eventually wilt. Labour will always have the FF route to power that FG don't. However in time, Sinn Fein sans the IRA will overtake the Labour Party, but maybe become the leading player in a centerist/FF, leftish/SF led reconstruction of Irish politics.
    1,197 people agree with me.. how many agree with you ?

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