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Thread: FG must aim to win at least 75 seats at the next GE.

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    Default FG must aim to win at least 75 seats at the next GE.

    This might not be the impossible task that some might consider it to be.

    I believe the party would need to win about 39% of the vote to achieve this.

    In Nov 1982 FG Won 70 seats with with the same percentage vote as this - but this was against a FF with a rock solid 44%.

    39% would allow FG to win more seats this time because FF will be far weaker at the next GE. With a lot of FF seats up for grabs, FG will be the main beneficeries in constituencies where Labour are not well organised.

    At the moment FG are on 33% according to the latest Red C poll.They have been as high as 35% recently and appear to be on an upward trend at the moment.

    So 39%, while difficult, is by no means impossible.


    The question is - how might this come about?

    Well lets consider the scenario that's likely to unfold over the next few months.

    FF are facing substantial losses at the upcoming elections. This will contribute to their downward momentum.

    The public will have even less faith in their ability to get us out of this very difficult situation.

    The next budget will be the final straw; when the govt are forced to reveal the true extent of the measures needed to keep us afloat the patience of the electorate will finally snap.I believe an election is inevitable at that stage, and it's one that FF can't win.


    So what must FG do.It's not enough for FF to lose the election:FG must ensure they actually win it.

    Well the next 6 months offers a golden opportunity.

    All the publicity surrounding the June elections will heighten political awareness among the general public.

    FG must capitalise on this: they must work very hard over the succeeding months to sell their policies to the public.

    There must be no long summer break for FG while the Dail is on holidays.

    They party has been developing a lot of good policy initiatives over the last while, such as the new health policy.

    They must continue to do this, and most importantly, they must be constantly on the airwaves to sell those policies.

    They must become associated in the public mind as the government in waiting.

    Momentum is crucial here: once you get it, it tends to become self-fulfilling.

    They must sell a positive message of hope to the people.


    75 seats would leave FG in a very strong position, and would strengthen their hand when forming a government.

    Let there be no doubt that a very strong government indeed will be needed.


    The message must be sold that voting for independents or ex FF men is no good when we need a very strong government.There are some good genuine independents running in the locals, but in the GE the public must be fully convinced of the necessity to vote for a strong government.


    As far as the constituences are concerned there must be no selfishness.
    They must go for the maximum number of seats, and aim for ones that might have been considered out of the question up to now.Quota sitters are no good; the candidates must be brave, and willing to take the risk.

    The prize is there to be won.

    FG must go for it.
    Last edited by Marlowe; 1st May 2009 at 06:50 PM.

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    Would agree. Good vote management could get us a few extras.

    I can see a few where it is hard not to see FG gain a seat, Dub Central and Dun Laoghaire spring to mind. 75 is possible. If they aim for more they will get more.

    If they get 39% of the vote it will be a phenominal result.

    But we can do it.

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    I'd agree with all of that.

    Just three minor quibbles.

    1) The Health Policy is excellent, except for the proposal to use multiple for-profit Health Insurers. There won't be any for-profit health insurers in two years time. Fine Gael should know this, and if they don't they aren't paying enough attention to global fionancial markets (which is what their main complaint about FF). We need the VHI to be restructured so that it is more transparent and accountable, and then force the for-profits to play on a level playing field - no more subsidies from VHI members.

    2) The Fine Gael proposal to outlaw dino diesel in 2015 needs to be withdrawn, and whoever thought it up needs to be publicly denounced. The person is clueless in the extreme.

    3) The rest of the Fine Gael proposal needs to be reworded so that it supports private enterprise. The way it is currently worded implies that they are going to turn DCENR into a Semi-State that will crowd private enterprise out of the game.


    Fine Gael need to start targetting individual FF TDs and start zeroing in on their respective voter bases right now. Fianna Fáil need to be crushed, and the votes need to be ringfenced so that Labour can't get a bounce from them. Fine Gael need to be able to form a Government without Labour if we are going to get through this crisis.

    We do not need, and our children cannot afford, a reprise of the 1980s.

    Once was enough!
    "Always do right. This will gratify some people and astonish the rest." Mark Twain

    “When a government is dependent upon bankers for money, they and not the leaders of the government control the situation, since the hand that gives is above the hand that takes. Money has no motherland; financiers are without patriotism and without decency; their sole object is gain.” Napoléon Bonaparte

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    Quote Originally Posted by SPN View Post
    I'd agree with all of that.

    Just three minor quibbles.

    1) The Health Policy is excellent, except for the proposal to use multiple for-profit Health Insurers. There won't be any for-profit health insurers in two years time. Fine Gael should know this, and if they don't they aren't paying enough attention to global fionancial markets (which is what their main complaint about FF). We need the VHI to be restructured so that it is more transparent and accountable, and then force the for-profits to play on a level playing field - no more subsidies from VHI members.

    2) The Fine Gael proposal to outlaw dino diesel in 2015 needs to be withdrawn, and whoever thought it up needs to be publicly denounced. The person is clueless in the extreme.

    3) The rest of the Fine Gael proposal needs to be reworded so that it supports private enterprise. The way it is currently worded implies that they are going to turn DCENR into a Semi-State that will crowd private enterprise out of the game.


    Fine Gael need to start targetting individual FF TDs and start zeroing in on their respective voter bases right now. Fianna Fáil need to be crushed, and the votes need to be ringfenced so that Labour can't get a bounce from them. Fine Gael need to be able to form a Government without Labour if we are going to get through this crisis.

    We do not need, and our children cannot afford, a reprise of the 1980s.

    Once was enough!
    I'd like to say thanks for a positive and constructive contribution,SPN.

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    I'd be more open to a FG govt that didn't include Labour, and 75 seats might do the trick. But I don't want my vote to be Labour's ticket to govt.

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    Quote Originally Posted by FutureTaoiseach View Post
    I'd be more open to a FG govt that didn't include Labour, and 75 seats might do the trick. But I don't want my vote to be Labour's ticket to govt.
    The real problem with that is on current poll numbers, what sort of Government can be formed without Labour?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Icemancometh View Post
    The real problem with that is on current poll numbers, what sort of Government can be formed without Labour?
    That is the challenge FG need to face up to.

    Two years ago the poll numbers were radically different - even one year ago they were different.

    Either FG go baldheaded for 75-78 seats, or they allow Labour into the void left by the collapse of FF. They only get one shot at this.

    Replacing Enda with Máiréad McGuinness would be a huge help too.
    "Always do right. This will gratify some people and astonish the rest." Mark Twain

    “When a government is dependent upon bankers for money, they and not the leaders of the government control the situation, since the hand that gives is above the hand that takes. Money has no motherland; financiers are without patriotism and without decency; their sole object is gain.” Napoléon Bonaparte

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    Here's how:
    1. Keep enda.
    2. Keep enda away from tv except set pieces unless bruton is also there.
    3. Have selection conventions and interviews immediately after locals.
    4. Aggressively target the seats in all43 constituencies.
    5. Teach people to vote abff in the locals and euros and byelections.
    6. Keep repeating the following phrase as a mantra 'only a vote for fg guarantees you can get ff out'
    7. Make very clear that fg is not just the best choice but only choice for the 1.7 existing or former private sector workers.
    8. Bring the government down by any lawful means necessary eg deal with lowry, greens, grealish or any backbencher.
    9.keep spokespersons very tight.
    10. ..have better luck.
    If the banks are out for a bail,
    and Lenny's efforts end up as a fail,
    when the Somer does come,
    to the Country they'll run,
    And leave a Fine mess for the Gael.

    Endinf the one Party (FF) state:
    http://www.politics.ie/fianna-fail/5...ate-ended.html

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    Quote Originally Posted by Question R24U View Post
    Here's how:
    4. Aggressively target the seats in all43 constituencies.

    8. Bring the government down by any lawful means necessary eg deal with lowry, greens, grealish or any backbencher.
    Forget about "all 43 Constituencies" and target each FF TD, parish by parish. Family by family. This calls for ground work at parish level - the very thing that Fianna Fáil have always been so expert at.


    There is no rush in bringing down the Government. The more time FF spend in Government the deeper the hole they will dig for themselves, and the bigger the potential upside for FG to exploit for the long term. Every day that FG spends out of Government while we are on the downward trajectory is a day less of hardship they will bring on themselves.

    FG want to be coming into Government in about 12 months time - when we have reached rock bottom, and the only way is up. That is 12 months of destroying the FF TDs on the ground, and 12 months of constantly reminding people about the pattern of FF Governments destroying the economy.


    Then we'll have a future worth looking forward to (until January 2015 that is - unless you have shares in a Rickshaw distributorship)
    "Always do right. This will gratify some people and astonish the rest." Mark Twain

    “When a government is dependent upon bankers for money, they and not the leaders of the government control the situation, since the hand that gives is above the hand that takes. Money has no motherland; financiers are without patriotism and without decency; their sole object is gain.” Napoléon Bonaparte

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    one term at a time, sweet jesus.

    Any fine gaeler who agrees with the stupid line that fg should not be in a rush to get ff out should be expelled. The mission, should they choose to accept it, is to get ff out and provide good government urgently. Anything else is ff-lite instead of ff-sh1te. Not good enough.
    If the banks are out for a bail,
    and Lenny's efforts end up as a fail,
    when the Somer does come,
    to the Country they'll run,
    And leave a Fine mess for the Gael.

    Endinf the one Party (FF) state:
    http://www.politics.ie/fianna-fail/5...ate-ended.html

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