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Thread: Economists forecast 15 more years of strong growth

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    Default Economists forecast 15 more years of strong growth

    Article for Todays Irish Times:

    Economists forecast 15 more years of strong growth
    Marc Coleman, Economics Editor

    The Republic's economy will continue to grow strongly over the coming 15 years as the population reaches 5.3 million by 2020, research published yesterday has found.

    In its latest forecast on demographic trends and the economy, entitled 2020 Vision, Ireland's Demographic Dividend, economists from NCB stockbrokers forecast that population and productivity growth will underpin economic growth of 5 per cent over the next 14 years, supporting strong demand across a range of spending categories.
    More here:

    The article goes on to say that by 2020 Ireland will have a population of 5.3, 20% of which will be migrants.

    Some very big challanges lie ahead for Ireland, but our potential is huge. This economic boom is no flash in the pan. We are no course to become Switzerland, if we play our cards right.

    PS: I hope nobody PMs me asking me for a log-in for ireland.com. I don't have one, so I don't. Honest...
    "Consistency is the last refuge of the unimaginative."
    Oscar Wilde

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    More here

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    Can anyone explain to me why they expect "The economy will sustain productivity growth - growth in the potential output per worker - of close to 3 per cent. " per annum?
    I hate my username!

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    Quote Originally Posted by PinkoLeftie
    Can anyone explain to me why they expect "The economy will sustain productivity growth - growth in the potential output per worker - of close to 3 per cent. " per annum?
    I guess that would be in their full report. Which I am struggling to find online. I can't even find their homepage.
    "Consistency is the last refuge of the unimaginative."
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    Access the actual report here:

    Irish Economy: Two reports offer contrasts in caution and cheer

    I don't have time to go into the NCB Stockbroker's report in detail. The economists assume that population growth is a guarantor of nirvana or a nightmare, ignoring many threats that may significantly impact economic growth.
    Believe those who search for truth. Doubt those who claim to have found it -André Gide (1869-1951) Nobel Laureate 1947

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    I haven't read it but I read somewhere that it is based on the assumption that all other things remain equal which is unlikely over such a long period of time.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Biffo
    I haven't read it but I read somewhere that it is based on the assumption that all other things remain equal which is unlikely over such a long period of time.
    I heard George Lee saying that on Morning Ireland today.
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    NCB say that they don't believe multinationals to be important to the economy.

    Mr O'Brien rejected suggestions that the economy was losing out as a manufacturing base.

    Multinationals account for 80% of output and their impact on the economy "has been overestimated", he said.
    Is that not a strange position to take, since multinational manufacturing firms account for a lot of our exports?
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    Quote Originally Posted by PinkoLeftie
    Can anyone explain to me why they expect "The economy will sustain productivity growth - growth in the potential output per worker - of close to 3 per cent. " per annum?
    Productivity is a measure of output divided by hours worked in the economy. The output figure is taken from the gross domestic product data.

    George Lee did make the point that as the percentage of the workforce doing unskilled jobs grows, as high technology mfg jobs fall, output and productivity is likely to fall.

    "It ain’t what you do, it’s the way that you do I.T." - Why US multinationals win the productivity race
    Believe those who search for truth. Doubt those who claim to have found it -André Gide (1869-1951) Nobel Laureate 1947

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    Quote Originally Posted by MichaelHennigan
    George Lee did make the point that as the percentage of the workforce doing unskilled jobs grows, as high technology mfg jobs fall, output and productivity is likely to fall.
    So he did, thanks for that.
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