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Thread: Is the Future Blue?

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    Default Is the Future Blue?

    As ye might have guessed, I am no fan of Fine Gael. However, I have been looking at the respective states of FG and FF and I must say FG look to be in much better shape. YFG are quite well organised in comparison to OFF, and why Enda Kenny is hardly Taoiseach material, FG have much more to offer in the way of future leadership figures. The likes of Naughton and Enright as opposed to ? well, no one basically. The standard of FF elected reps is just terrible. So while I still have no time for their politics, given their superior calibre of candidates and the increasingly euro-yuppy profile of the Irish voter, are FG about to reverse the dominance that FF have enjoyed? In short, is the future blue?
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    If SF continue to grow, it will be FF votes and seats that they take. If FF can no longer relie on the soft nationalist vote that has historically always kept them in power, people may start to relaise that they don't actually stand for anything; this may also lead to a loss of votes to Labour.

    The only party that really drains FG votes is the PDs. If the Pds could be badly damoged in the next couple of elections, they could be bust. Without the PDs, FG would have the potential to gain a lot more seats.

    With FF failing, FG would be filling a unique position on the spectrem, and could potentially emerge as the strongest party in Irish politics.
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    I think DOD is being to see how things may well pan out.

    There exists an opportunity for FG to dominate the centre ground and right of Irish politics. It is contingent on a number of things happening some of which are within FG controls and some not. One is that the PDs are sidelined sufficiently in electoral terms such that they close up shop, or retreat to non-electoral status.

    Given their current 8 seats, I would consider it likely that Parlon, Sexton, both O'Malleys are very vulnerable, with McDowell, Liz O'Donnell, Grealish and Harney in that order next up. If the PDs had only the last 3, I think they would be finished as a party. Grealish and O'Donnell would seek new homes and Harney would be the David Owen Irish politics. I say that because they have failed to get people elected in local elections to support the TDs, and Senators, the pyrimad won't stand.

    FF are not the party organisationally that they once were but they are not impotent either.

    For those who question if FF and SF would go into government after the next GE, it should be noted that if FF go under 70 then SF may not have the numbers necessary to shore then up, not to mind the inclination as we have been told by SF supporters here and elsewhere.

    If FF fall under 65 and FG get over 55 and FG are in government, what way will FF lean in order to recover support, left to fend off SF and Labour, or right to hoover up PD support and recover losses to FG? I suspect to the left as it is more straightforward. However, in doing so FF will concede forever any claim to financial responsiblity.
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    Good thread so far. I wouldn't put too much stock in the state of YFG and OFF, a party can always get people in to run who have real world experience which is generally better than having been a hack since one entered college.

    I still think FF won't lose support any time soon because the alternative is a rainbow which would be a far too unstable to go the 5 years and that is very important
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    you said you were a teetotaller DOD.

    Your a lying b'stard

    As for Blue and KK, sorry lads, while DOD's analysis may the stuff of wet dreams to the majority of hard core FG'ers, it doesn't represent anything like the reality.

    FF may seem to have many useless Parliamentarians, but when did that ever stop them. They only need 10 or 12 to keep the whole thing going in the Dail, and the rest of them tend to the parishes.

    As for where they might go if FG were in Government (still highly unlikely if FG posters are completely honest), they'll go every way. Thats always been FF's strongest point. They have the ability to be everything to everybody.

    Now, while that will erode in time, I don't think it will erode fast enough for FG to benefit.

    If you want me to be completely honest, the differences between the two parties boils down to one thing. Ruthlessness. They can be, FG can't.

    If a FG/Lab government were stumbling from pillar to post like the FF/PD one has, they'd be cutting you lot to ribbons inside and outside the Dail. FG simply aren't doing that.

    To be honest, I think while the next election has already started for FG, the FF dog is still lying sleeping. The Labour dog is practically comatose. Wait till Bertie and the Boys really flex their muscles. I don't think Enda will know what hit him.
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    ha ha ha
    i know politics can change, and old boundaries and allegiances are breaking down, but is someone seriously suggesting Fine Gael are going to go on to be the biggest and most dominant party in irish politics.



    eh, reality check, please! Labour have a better chance of being the 2nd party in the state in the next 20 years, or alternatively Sinn Fein have a better chance of being the 3rd biggest party. in the next 10 - depending on labour getting its act and strategy together or not.

    while i agree if teh PDs do implode (quite likely after the next election)FG will increase support, its not really certain all would go to FG, i think many would go to FF as that is where they came from and not withstanding idiotic motions from waterford at the ard fheis - charlie JH is not around anymore to have PDs crusade on. 8)

    and lovely liz could even end up in labour or greens considering she is one of the most vocal opponents to govt in the last years (a sad reflection on the official opposition) im sure i read she used to canvass for ruairi quinn years before her fall to the dark side to the regressive un-democrats, but unlike most of her collegaues she is a genuine liberal.
    - but she'd probably be the only one and i wouldnt hold my breath for implosion as that was predicted the last time as well.

    but even if PDs implode and most join FG that is nto enough to raise FG
    above FF levels unless we see some serious seismic shifts. teh reality is that FF is the second most succesful party in europe after the swedish labour party, is enda kenny really the person that is going to overturn the last 70 years of election history? i dont think so, he has not really electrified anything, electrocuting is more like it!

    the other issue is the long term reviews they did after the last Gen elections, al reports stated that fine gael may in the short term recover support but in the long term they were in for a long period of terminal decline that would see them fall below not only 20% but if i recall from teh newspapers leaks about them even reachign below 15%. naturally laboru handing them a crutch for this electino made them relevant again and even somewhat viable - though i dont honestly see a FG/LAb Govt as a real possibility the next election. still i think it still just puts off the ineveitable.

    you cannot have 3 conservative parties as teh main players the country - and you certainly cant have 2 opposition parties that are both conservatice catch all parties that base themselves on not being the other party - and FF has corenred the if youre irish, catholic and gaa YOURE ONE OF US, FG has been wrongly or rightly been tarnished the fat farmerr west brit party(by FF & SF) he fact that theyre allies of the british conservatives, does no favours in that regard - this state has 80 years of democracy - th whole no policies just personalities thing has to run out of steam (it might have some road to travel in eastern europe with just 15 years of democracy) , so personalities are not the issue since the 80 with CJH and Dr GF especially when irish cnservative poltiics today is so full of mediocrities. plus coming into the fourth generation of voters after the civl war the whoe tribal thign is starting to break down.

    with so many educated and well traveled voters we shall see a further break down fo tribalism and an incrasing search for policies to give solutions for the lack of services in ireland in comparison to european countries - i think people will start to realise the reason is social democracy has been in power in coutnries every other time, and with FG going further to the right, at the same time that PDs & FF seems incerasinlgly like the same party and when lab or sf will be crucial to forming governments, it seems ridiculous to suggest FG will overtake FF, barrign half the cabinet being charged for corruption while still in office.
    FG would need to look at changing direction again or else going in with FF, and that would of coruse open the whole game up to just why cant they agree how to spell Fine/Fianna and join up (that is the only difference aprt from colour of shirts, right?)

    so, i guess time will tell, btu meantime, we shall all watch with interest (and probably disappointment as civil war politics tries to reasert its backward grip on this country again at the next election).
    ho hum
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    Well whilst Id like to think FG will outstrip FF completely and become the new FF as it were in terms of dominance, FF will be around for a long time yet. But what I think will happen, is a certain steady increase in SF support over the next couple of decades. As DOD has said support will flow from FF to SF, and assuming the PDs are still very small, FG will be the only party to legitimately counter SF. in effect, instead of the old FF-FG rivalry, it will be a SF-FG rivalry, with Labour and FF still being fairly strong but politics centering around SF and FG. So to add to the original post: The future is most certainly Blue and Green!
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    As DOD has said support will flow from FF to SF, and assuming the PDs are still very small, FG will be the only party to legitimately counter SF. in effect, instead of the old FF-FG rivalry, it will be a SF-FG rivalry, with Labour and FF still being fairly strong but politics centering around SF and FG
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    Quote Originally Posted by campbeca
    I still think FF won't lose support any time soon because the alternative is a rainbow which would be a far too unstable to go the 5 years and that is very important

    So how do you explain FFs disastrous local and Euro campaigns in 2004, if you think they "wont lose support"? And opinion polls since have kept them more or less flatlining between 32/34%. Thats a big loss of support in anyone's book. And while you think the rainbow may be unstable, again the most recent opinion poll shows the rainbow is trusted over the present government in dealing with health, crime, education and the economy.
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    Quote Originally Posted by CJH
    As DOD has said support will flow from FF to SF, and assuming the PDs are still very small, FG will be the only party to legitimately counter SF. in effect, instead of the old FF-FG rivalry, it will be a SF-FG rivalry, with Labour and FF still being fairly strong but politics centering around SF and FG
    Are you on drugs?
    What point did you have a problem with? I think its fair to say that FG are pretty much polar opposites to SF where FF would be seen as SF-lite in many ways. Certainly traditionally, and definitely in party support and members. dont you agree?
    Ireland interests are best secured within a more dynamic EU. Vote YES to Lisbon.

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