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Thread: Speculating on an IMF bailout for Ireland

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    Default Speculating on an IMF bailout for Ireland

    For the terms for Hungary's €25 billion IMF bailout,see FACTBOX-Hungary details conditions of IMF package - Forbes.com These terms are softer than the IMF's historical slash and burn terms for emerging markets, but the one of a freeze on public sector pay could be hard,with recent consumer price inflation of around 8%.

    <Mod> This thread has been merged with "Should Ireland ask the IMF for cash before its too late?" </Mod>
    Last edited by stringjack; 28th January 2009 at 05:01 PM. Reason: Merged thread.

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    Duth Ealla
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    Hey careful now. Down with that sort of thing.

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    Default Should Ireland ask the IMF for cash before its too late?

    Should Ireland ask the IMF for cash now before its too late?

    Clearly other countries like the UK are going to have to go to the begging bowl before long, and when they do there might be nothing left for us (Ireland).

    So should we forget our pride and get in first before its too late?
    Last edited by bluefish; 28th January 2009 at 04:56 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Duth Ealla View Post
    Hey careful now. Down with that sort of thing.
    Yeah now it's all his fault if we do need the IMF!

    But yeah that does seem very mild. We don't have 13th month pay or pensions do we?
    We're doing almost all of those things already, which means I assume that if we go to the IMF I assume further measures would be ordered.

    I don't know much about the Hungarian economy but are the quarterly criteria achievable? Can they go from a 280 billion forint deficit in March(and that's a goal too) to a 255 billion forint surplus in September for example?
    Could it be that this plan is a stepping stone to tougher measures, with (relatively) light measures to start with but very demanding criteria? Or does the plan, while not directly ordering tough measures, force the government to bring in tougher measures anyway because of the criteria?

    Again I say for all I know Hungary can meet those criteria without further measures, I really don't know.

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    Politics.ie Member seabhcan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by bluefish View Post
    Should Ireland ask the IMF for cash now before its too late?

    Clearly other countries like the UK are going to have to go to the begging bowl before long, and when they do there might be nothing left for the us.

    So should we forget our pride and get in first before its too late?
    We are currently able to borrow on commercial terms.

    The IMF is like a loan shark who brakes your legs first, on the assumption you won't be able to pay him back.

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    They would be charging more than we could get on the bond market and demanding a huge pound of flesh from the public service.

    Think 20% redundancies and 30%+ wage cuts in the public sector for starters. There is a reason people only go to the IMF last!

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    Quote Originally Posted by ballot stuffer View Post
    Think 20% redundancies and 30%+ wage cuts in the public sector for starters. There is a reason people only go to the IMF last!
    Interesting hypothetical here: what if public sector unions refused to accept IMF recommendations and went on strike until they were withdrawn?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dios View Post
    Interesting hypothetical here: what if public sector unions refused to accept IMF recommendations and went on strike until they were withdrawn?
    We don't get the money in the first place. These are an example of the conditions attached to getting IMF loans. If the government doesn't get cash they can strike all they want because they won't be paid because there is no cash in the coffers.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dios View Post
    Interesting hypothetical here: what if public sector unions refused to accept IMF recommendations and went on strike until they were withdrawn?
    No option would be ruled out, ie if a compromise was not found use of the military would not be ruled out. Because the gun of not recieveing the cash is pointed at the government's head.
    (economy is more important than democracy in their eyes. Because they believe free market leads to free people)

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    Quote Originally Posted by Seos View Post
    No option would be ruled out, ie if a compromise was not found use of the military would not be ruled out.
    So we'd see the army hauling away union leaders in vans, the right to strike and gather in public places suspended, that sort of thing?

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