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Thread: Future for Longford

  1. #1
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    Default Future for Longford

    Will Longford be split from Roscommon in the next constituency revisions? If so, will it be joined up with Westmeath again? If not, will the strong political divide between Roscommon and Longford continue and act to keep two seats in Longford for Peter Kelly and Mae Sexton/Louis Belton?

  2. #2
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    Default Future for Longford

    Longford probably will rejoin with Westmeath.This will probably be a five seater.Seats should end up 2FF 2FG 1labour
    Ceann C

  3. #3

    Default Future for Longford

    Indeed it looks as if Longford will be adjoined with Iarmhi of the Lakes, with maybe the north western part of Meath added in to make it up tonbe a 5-seater. Mr. Collins prognostications look tonbe good to me. Penrose will top the poll; that's the only definite. The big question will be wheter it will be 2 FF and 2 FG after that, or 3 FF and 1 Fg...or maybe 2 FF 1 FG and 1 PD, if Mae Sexton can hold on. I expect that Penrose's strength will prevent a SF breakthrough here - although they should be good for about 4,500 first preferences. Greens will be coming in around the 600-700 mark. My tips: 1. Penrose LAB (First Count), 2. O'Rourke FF (4th Count), 3. Brady FF (8th Count), 4. McGrath FG (10th Count), 5. Between Sexton PD and Belton FG. Cassidy FF to be eliminated on 7th Count and Kelly FF on 9th Count.

  4. #4

    Default Future for Longford

    Than again, the changes involved if Longford is split from Roscommon will be so great that maybe they may just opt for no change at all and postpone major changes until after the 2006 Census. In that case Long-Ros would remain a 4-seater, an enlarged Westmeath become a 4-seater (with addition of north-west Meath) and Meath remain a 5-seater. Would be ideal for FF; they'd certainly gain in Westmeath, and probably hold their 3 in Meath and be still pushing forn 3 seats in Long-Rosc.

  5. #5
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    Default Future for Longford

    FF would not win 3 seats in such a constituency as Longford will not come out in favour of them.They will not get Cassidy, Peter Kelly and O'Rourke elected.mcGrath should be safe for FG,belton will not run it will probably be Senator James Bannon who will benefit strongly from living on the Longford-Westmeath border.Penrose is a cert and Mae Sexton will do well in Longford but Westmeath?She could deny Fg a second seat but I still feel she will suffer ,not because of who she is,but who her party is.
    Ceann C

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    Default Future for Longford

    FF would not win 3 seats in such a constituency as Longford will not come out in favour of them.They will not get Cassidy, Peter Kelly and O'Rourke elected.mcGrath should be safe for FG,belton will not run it will probably be Senator James Bannon who will benefit strongly from living on the Longford-Westmeath border.Penrose is a cert and Mae Sexton will do well in Longford but Westmeath?She could deny Fg a second seat but I still feel she will suffer ,not because of who she is,but who her party is.
    If part of north-west Meath is added on, as seems likely, then you have the Johny Brady factor to add in to the FF equation. It could turn into a very messy battle as to which 2 FFers win out; given the geography of the consttiuency it would likely be one out of O'Rourke and Cassidy and one from Brady and Kelly. If Bannon and Sexton do well, then Kelly could lose his seat and his transfers elect two from the others. Would Longford votes be more likely to go to Cassidy or O'Rourke however?

  7. #7
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    Default Future for Longford

    Of the two probablu O'Rourke.In the old constituency she always did well in Longford.She had some contact in North Longford which helped her apparantly.Kelly could loose out to Mae Sexton that is true but I still think FF would win 2 with FG and labour sharing the other 2 seats.That would be 2 Government and 2 opposition seats.
    Ceann C

  8. #8
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    Default Future for Longford

    I have to agree with you on this one Collinsite. But I would say that Willie Penrose is probably a definate, especially now that labour have control of Mullingar town council. Donie cassidy wil find it hard to get reelected, especially as his area has been depleted in the recent boundry adjustments. Furthermore, I cannot see the O'Rourke dynasty, and the people of Athlone not regaining a seat in that part of the county. there will be less transfers sent from there to other parts of westmeath and indeed longford.

    As for longford, I cannot see mae sexton regaining her seat. She defied all the odds to be elected last time out and need Lious Beltons transfers, which she recieved at an unpredented rate. In Longford/westmeath, transfers will go along party lines as it is a more compatable constituency. There is a definate Fianna Fail seat in Longford, and if Kelly runs he will retainthis, although there is talk in some quarters that he is only keeping this seat warm and rumours abound the Philip Reynolds may run if given the nomination. The last seat will probably be Fine gaels, with Paul McGrath and the longford Fine Gael candidate slugging it out. I say the longford candidate as there is no heir apparent to Lious belton just yet. Believe me the nomination process will only be the start of it.

  9. #9
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    Default Future for Longford

    If Fine Gael put forward James Bannon i think he would get elected either at the expense of an FFer or party colleague Paul McGrath.In any case i think any prospective Longford/Westmeath constituency is too small to be a 4seater.One with three large urban areas (Athlone,Mullingar and Longford)surely should be a 5 seater?
    Ceann C

  10. #10
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    Default Future for Longford

    If Fine Gael put forward James Bannon i think he would get elected either at the expense of an FFer or party colleague Paul McGrath.In any case i think any prospective Longford/Westmeath constituency is too small to be a 4seater.One with three large urban areas (Athlone,Mullingar and Longford)surely should be a 5 seater?
    Ceann C

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