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Thread: M Martin believes Irish economy will boom in two years time [2008 thread]

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    Default M Martin believes Irish economy will boom in two years time [2008 thread]

    Does anyone think he is correct or just blowing wind?

    My thoughts are that the economy won't be "booming" for quite a bit longer, minimum of 5 years, more likely ten before we have a noticable strong up-turn. We were too dependent on a single source, the building sector, to recover quickly.
    Last edited by He3; 12th February 2011 at 02:18 PM. Reason: Added thread start year for clarity
    The enemy of my enemy is the enemy of my enemy. EU Army coming to be, the feckin' conspiracy nuts on Lisbon were right on this one.

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    Default Re: M Martin believes Irish economy will boom in two years time

    What exactly does Michael Martin believe this boom will be in exactly? Export of bouyant optimism?
    The future saviour of the Irish Economy: Charles Darwin

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    Default Re: M Martin believes Irish economy will boom in two years time

    Quote Originally Posted by HanleyS
    What exactly does Michael Martin believe this boom will be in exactly? Export of bouyant optimism?
    High-octane plms and premium-grade bullshit. Nobody does it better.
    Fianna Fail - The Loss of Sovereignty Party.

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    Default Re: M Martin believes Irish economy will boom in two years time

    Quote Originally Posted by myksav
    Does anyone think he is correct or just blowing wind?
    Nobody knows, but Martin is an optimist, and if more people believe him, he'll probably be right. If more believe you lot, then you'll be right

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    Default Re: M Martin believes Irish economy will boom in two years time

    Quote Originally Posted by Pauli
    Quote Originally Posted by HanleyS
    What exactly does Michael Martin believe this boom will be in exactly? Export of bouyant optimism?
    High-octane plms and premium-grade ********. Nobody does it better.
    Off the topic but how the heck do you get those accents on plamas? Which should be plms.
    The enemy of my enemy is the enemy of my enemy. EU Army coming to be, the feckin' conspiracy nuts on Lisbon were right on this one.

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    Default Re: M Martin believes Irish economy will boom in two years time

    An economy is made up of much more than sentiment. I agree that sentiment has played a large part in economic growth in Anglo-US style economies in the last decade but at the expense of consumers taking on ever more debt in order to pay for their optomistic assesments. This has largely been accomplished through pumping up money supply while underreporting inflation. (China has helped dramatically by flooding the world with cheap good but their inflation rates are way above our own. A new source of cheap labour produced goods has to found quickly for the Anlgo-US model to keep working.)

    As far as I'm concerned, if MM's happy, "don't worry" prediction comes true, it will be on the back of an expensive cost based economy and on further personal debt accumulation. One of the things that is keeping Ireland running somewhat smoothly, imo, is the shear amount of money people made during the last decade. The vast majority of this new found money is not from growth promoted industry but from people sitting on their backsides while their house/asset balloned through no effort of their own. There are many cases of people sitting on money through the sale of homes and land who are just spending a percentage while showing little capital growth adjusted for inflation or, worse, showing losses from riskier investments like equities.

    Good times may be around the corner for the wealthy and for the middle classes according to MM, but the middle classes better watch their own backsides because next time its their turn to feel the downturn.

    Young, savvy wage earners who haven't got themselves into the debt spiral are making the correct decision to emmigrate.
    A society of sheep must in time beget a government of wolves. (B. de Jouvenel)

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    Default Re: M Martin believes Irish economy will boom in two years time

    Quote Originally Posted by michael1965
    Quote Originally Posted by myksav
    Does anyone think he is correct or just blowing wind?
    Nobody knows, but Martin is an optimist, and if more people believe him, he'll probably be right. If more believe you lot, then you'll be right
    Oh good, I'm part of a "lot".
    I always thought is was 'silly' to have so much of our economy tied up in one sector. It left us too open to recession.

    The question is what would create a boom in our economy, another monolithic business type? And how quickly can or should it take?
    Should it be a quick fix?
    Or a more gradual build-up?
    The enemy of my enemy is the enemy of my enemy. EU Army coming to be, the feckin' conspiracy nuts on Lisbon were right on this one.

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    Default Re: M Martin believes Irish economy will boom in two years time

    Quote Originally Posted by rockyracoon
    An economy is made up of much more than sentiment. I agree that sentiment has played a large part in economic growth in Anglo-US style economies in the last decade but at the expense of consumers taking on ever more debt in order to pay for their optomistic assesments. This has largely been accomplished through pumping up money supply while underreporting inflation. (China has helped dramatically by flooding the world with cheap good but their inflation rates are way above our own. A new source of cheap labour produced goods has to found quickly for the Anlgo-US model to keep working.)

    As far as I'm concerned, if MM's happy, "don't worry" prediction comes true, it will be on the back of an expensive cost based economy and on further personal debt accumulation. One of the things that is keeping Ireland running somewhat smoothly, imo, is the shear amount of money people made during the last decade. The vast majority of this new found money is not from growth promoted industry but from people sitting on their backsides while their house/asset balloned through no effort of their own. There are many cases of people sitting on money through the sale of homes and land who are just spending a percentage while showing little capital growth adjusted for inflation or, worse, showing losses from riskier investments like equities.

    Good times may be around the corner for the wealthy and for the middle classes according to MM, but the middle classes better watch their own backsides because next time its their turn to feel the downturn.

    Young, savvy wage earners who haven't got themselves into the debt spiral are making the correct decision to emmigrate.
    Of course, there is more to an economy than sentiment, but I'm talking about quiet optimism, not the "irrational exuberance" that drive the bubble. If people aren't optimistic, then they won't invest, or take any risks. What we need now, is a short sharp correction in house prices, not a ten year long, dismal steady decline, like what happened in Japan - or stagnation like happened in Germany (both presumably the anti-thesis of the Anglo-US economic model).

    If all goes well, young (or old) savvy wage earners, who haven't gotten into a debt spiral, will be in a very good position. Not that emigration isn't a good idea. I think everyone should spend a few years at least in another country.

    You have to ask yourself though, if the current cloud of doom and gloom, is every bit as irrational as the exuberance of the previous couple of years.

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    Default Re: M Martin believes Irish economy will boom in two years time

    Just more bullcrap out of Martin, who has been without exception, the worst Minister in the past ten years.. and that's some feat considering the opposition... every department that he's been in finished up worse for his time there, and he never once took responsibility for anything

    He's simply starting the FF local election campaign by trying to convince the public that they needn't worry, FF will have everything under control the year after the elections, so keep voting in FF councillors and they'll be best placed to look after you when all this blows over...

    Bullcrap

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    Default Re: M Martin believes Irish economy will boom in two years time

    The current round of doom and gloom, as it is called, is caused by real underlying problems in the structure of our economy, and not solely due to the exuberance of an asset bubble. The bubble is a symptom of the underlying malaise. The reaction is not out of proportion. People need to wake up to the reality of money supply and indebtedness. MM's announcements is just more of the same sentiment as that which helped inflame the home/asset bubble in the first place.

    Given govt pronouncements so far, they just seem content to let things sort themselves out. It seems that reliance on the Anglo-US model is now the embedded govt policy. They may throw some sticking plasters over the appearing cracks but they seem devoid of political will to change course. At the very least, they should adopt a German model based on EU finance and economic regimes or come up with an alternative. The adjustment will be financially wrenching for alot of people but would set us up better for the future. Imo, I don't see it happening.

    As for emmigration. The younger, savvy emmigrant isn't going to foreign climes to broaden their multi-cultural credentials. Those emmigrating to Australia and other locations are doing so on sound financial/economic reasoning. It doesn't take an Einstein to realise that owning a home in Ireland is prohibitively expensive. Some properties have been lying empty for nearly two years and the asking price has not come down. The potential wages for a great number of school leavers cannot match the costs of living in our society anymore given our high cost base. They want opportunities they can achieve without facing a lifelong debt burden they may never be able to shake off in Ireland.

    The phrase "it's time to wake up and smell the coffee" seems appropriate given our long term economic situation. However, some people want us to believe that paying 5+ for a small latte is still the sought after height of our economic achievements.
    A society of sheep must in time beget a government of wolves. (B. de Jouvenel)

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