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Thread: Fianna Fail and the Next Election.

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    Default Fianna Fail and the Next Election.

    Following the recent discussion on Fine Gael's chances next time out, I thought it was tiem to open a thread on the possibility of FF gains in the next election.
    Turning to Dublin firstly, I think that with Dublin North becoming a 5-seater, FF will make a strong bid for 3 seats. Michael Kennedy and Dara O'Brien pulled off a huge surprise last time out when they two out of four, and a strong third candidate here could make it 3 out of 5. Would Jim Glennon be persuaded to make a comeback, I wonder?

    Elsewhere in the big smoke, if Mary Harney retires, I think that Luke Moriarty could make a bold bid for her seat. He polled an impressive 3,700 odd first preferences last time out.

    Brian Lenihan will be under pressure to bring in a second FF in Dublin West, especially if he becomes Tanaiste, while Seamus Brennan and Tom Kitt will be under similiar pressure to bring in Maria Corrigan. She went very close last time out and will be in the hunt again.

    I think that FF will hold their existing seats in Leinster, though with Louth becoming a 5-seater, Dermot Ahern will be under pressure to bring in a third FF seat here. In Munster, there will be some interesting contests to follow. Rumour has it that John Brasill has been canvassing North Kerry/WEst Limerick with Gerry Collins. Brasill has been mentioned as a second FF Candidate for some time now and his chance could come here. I think he will give McEllistrim a run for his money. In South Kerry, Tom Sheahan will be under pressure to hold on with the constituency reduced to two.

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    Default Re: Fianna Fail and the Next Election.

    There is only one certainty anymore about Irish elections - there is no certainty.
    The days when FF were guaranteed 45%, and FG 31/32% (and I mean guaranteed, nailed on certainty) are over.

    Both parties have experienced decline in the last 2 decades. FG's has been more arresting than FF's - the headline 2002 election being case in point, but remember, FF got 32% in the locals in 2004.
    It is conceviable that they only get 32% in 2011, or it is conceviable they get an overall majority.
    The same applies to FG- it could be 22, or 32%.

    Anyhow, I happen to think this uncertainty is a very good thing, even though it has harmed my own party.
    I think its good for the country that buffoons are no longer guaranteed election just because they run for the right party.

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    Default Re: Fianna Fail and the Next Election.

    Quote Originally Posted by Queen Scotia
    Turning to Dublin firstly, I think that with Dublin North becoming a 5-seater, FF will make a strong bid for 3 seats. Michael Kennedy and Dara O'Brien pulled off a huge surprise last time out when they two out of four, and a strong third candidate here could make it 3 out of 5. Would Jim Glennon be persuaded to make a comeback, I wonder?
    Dublin North is remaining a 4 seater, the constituency commission didn't add an extra seat.

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    Default Re: Fianna Fail and the Next Election.

    Quote Originally Posted by meriwether
    There is only one certainty anymore about Irish elections - there is no certainty.
    The days when FF were guaranteed 45%, and FG 31/32% (and I mean guaranteed, nailed on certainty) are over.

    Both parties have experienced decline in the last 2 decades. FG's has been more arresting than FF's - the headline 2002 election being case in point, but remember, FF got 32% in the locals in 2004.
    It is conceviable that they only get 32% in 2011, or it is conceviable they get an overall majority.
    The same applies to FG- it could be 22, or 32%.

    Anyhow, I happen to think this uncertainty is a very good thing, even though it has harmed my own party.
    I think its good for the country that buffoons are no longer guaranteed election just because they run for the right party.
    I agree entirely, in particular with your last sentence, in that this development allows for the odd able minded person to win out on the day.

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    Default Re: Fianna Fail and the Next Election.

    I would have thought Glennon would weaken the ticket at this stage.
    John in Cork ya boy ya

  6. #6

    Default Re: Fianna Fail and the Next Election.

    Quote Originally Posted by Clive
    Quote Originally Posted by Queen Scotia
    Turning to Dublin firstly, I think that with Dublin North becoming a 5-seater, FF will make a strong bid for 3 seats. Michael Kennedy and Dara O'Brien pulled off a huge surprise last time out when they two out of four, and a strong third candidate here could make it 3 out of 5. Would Jim Glennon be persuaded to make a comeback, I wonder?
    Dublin North is remaining a 4 seater, the constituency commission didn't add an extra seat.
    Not sure why its a surprise as there were always 2 FF seats there in a 4 seater.

    Some people seemed to have the idea that GP/Lab and SP would all get a seat with FF/FG getting one between them. Just got to wonder what they were smoking when they posted it.

  7. #7

    Default Re: Fianna Fail and the Next Election.

    Given that all forecasts made 5 days out from the last election were arse ways any one hazarding a guess here at this stage is certifiable.

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    Default Re: Fianna Fail and the Next Election.

    Quote Originally Posted by Queen Scotia
    Following the recent discussion on Fine Gael's chances next time out, I thought it was tiem to open a thread on the possibility of FF gains in the next election.
    Turning to Dublin firstly, I think that with Dublin North becoming a 5-seater, FF will make a strong bid for 3 seats. Michael Kennedy and Dara O'Brien pulled off a huge surprise last time out when they two out of four, and a strong third candidate here could make it 3 out of 5. Would Jim Glennon be persuaded to make a comeback, I wonder?
    By saying that 2 out of 4 was a huge surprise, then surely you agree that 3 out of 5 would be an even bigger surprise? Anyway, there's a second left-wing seat in a 5-seater Dublin North, much more so than a third FF seat. Between them Ryan and Daly polled 10,000 votes, and its hard to see that vote not winning a seat for someone other than FF. As for Glennon, he retired because he felt he was having to wait in the queue too long for promotion, and that his talents were being passed over in favour of time-servers of lesser ability. The notion that he could be persuaded back in order to go for an almost unwinnable third seat is fairly fanciful.

    Elsewhere in the big smoke, if Mary Harney retires, I think that Luke Moriarty could make a bold bid for her seat. He polled an impressive 3,700 odd first preferences last time out.
    Unlikely. Harney's vote is personal, and will go all over the place when she retires. And Moriarty is frrom the very opposite end of the constituency to Harney, so he'd be likely to benefit less than the others. And at the end of the day he'd have to finish well ahead of both Fitzgerald AND Spain of SF in order to win a seat. Unlikely.

    Brian Lenihan will be under pressure to bring in a second FF in Dublin West, especially if he becomes Tanaiste,
    A lot depends on what Joe Higgins does. A problem with 3-seaters that become 4-seaters is that the main parties rarely have ready-made second candidates lined up, and Dublin West is no different. As such, the one who came nearest to winning the previous time tends to come through when the seats are increased, as they have a better base built up than anyone else.

    while Seamus Brennan and Tom Kitt will be under similiar pressure to bring in Maria Corrigan. She went very close last time out and will be in the hunt again.
    Its highly unlikely that Brennan will run again - so FF will be quite happy to hold two, and won't be realistically pushing for a third.

    I think that FF will hold their existing seats in Leinster, though with Louth becoming a 5-seater, Dermot Ahern will be under pressure to bring in a third FF seat here.
    Again, the votes aren't really there. If Kirk retires, they've find a good candidate to replace him, while their only other prospect for growth is in Drogheda - but Frank Maher has been well and truly eclipsed by O'Dowd there. If you look at the party figures in Louth, the most likely winners of an extra seat are FG, followed by the Greens, and only then by FF. A particular problem for FF in such constituencies, where the Greens, FG and Labour are all well represented, is that transfers between those parties leave FF needing to do it all with first-preferences - and those votes just aren't there for them.

    In Munster, there will be some interesting contests to follow. Rumour has it that John Brasill has been canvassing North Kerry/WEst Limerick with Gerry Collins. Brasill has been mentioned as a second FF Candidate for some time now and his chance could come here. I think he will give McEllistrim a run for his money.
    Possibly, but that's not a gain. Its just replacing McEllistrim with Brassil.

    In South Kerry, Tom Sheahan will be under pressure to hold on with the constituency reduced to two.
    Again, look at the votes. FG and Labour have 15,000 votes between them, against 22,000 for the combined FF/IND FF ticket. Without O'Donoghue's stature on the ticket, the FF vote must drop - but even if it doesn't, the combined 39% of the vote for FG/Labour would deliver a seat to one or the other. If its not Sheahan, it might even be Seamus Moynihan for Labour (if the rumours are true). But either way, there's too many votes there for them NOT to get a seat between them.
    "So how are things at the Campaign for the Freedom of Information, by the way?" "Sorry, I can't talk about that"

  9. #9

    Default Re: Fianna Fail and the Next Election.

    Quote Originally Posted by meriwether
    There is only one certainty anymore about Irish elections - there is no certainty.
    The days when FF were guaranteed 45%, and FG 31/32% (and I mean guaranteed, nailed on certainty) are over.

    Both parties have experienced decline in the last 2 decades. FG's has been more arresting than FF's - the headline 2002 election being case in point, but remember, FF got 32% in the locals in 2004.
    It is conceviable that they only get 32% in 2011, or it is conceviable they get an overall majority.
    The same applies to FG- it could be 22, or 32%.

    Anyhow, I happen to think this uncertainty is a very good thing, even though it has harmed my own party.
    I think its good for the country that buffoons are no longer guaranteed election just because they run for the right party.
    FF's base is around 35-37%. The 2004 election saw many dyed in the blood FFers vote non-FF to punish FF and because they saw the election as irrelevent(they were locals afterall). They wouldn't dream of doing something so wreckless in a general.

    As for pickups in 2012,
    Dublin West, Dublim Mid West, Dublin NC, Dublin NE, Clare, Cork SC, CSW, Galway East, Galway West with Grealish if he joins, Laois Offaly, Louth, Roscommon, Tipp North and Wexford are all within easy reach with a small swing and the right candidate and strategy.
    Liquidate labour, liquidate stocks, liquidate the farmers, liquidate real estate.

  10. #10

    Default Re: Fianna Fail and the Next Election.

    [quote=hiding behind a poster]
    Quote Originally Posted by "Queen Scotia":2ee14im2
    Following the recent discussion on Fine Gael's chances next time out, I thought it was tiem to open a thread on the possibility of FF gains in the next election.
    Turning to Dublin firstly, I think that with Dublin North becoming a 5-seater, FF will make a strong bid for 3 seats. Michael Kennedy and Dara O'Brien pulled off a huge surprise last time out when they two out of four, and a strong third candidate here could make it 3 out of 5. Would Jim Glennon be persuaded to make a comeback, I wonder?
    By saying that 2 out of 4 was a huge surprise, then surely you agree that 3 out of 5 would be an even bigger surprise? Anyway, there's a second left-wing seat in a 5-seater Dublin North, much more so than a third FF seat. Between them Ryan and Daly polled 10,000 votes, and its hard to see that vote not winning a seat for someone other than FF. As for Glennon, he retired because he felt he was having to wait in the queue too long for promotion, and that his talents were being passed over in favour of time-servers of lesser ability. The notion that he could be persuaded back in order to go for an almost unwinnable third seat is fairly fanciful.[/quote:2ee14im2]DN is an remains a 4 seater, so no gains for FF unfortnatly.

    [quote:2ee14im2]Elsewhere in the big smoke, if Mary Harney retires, I think that Luke Moriarty could make a bold bid for her seat. He polled an impressive 3,700 odd first preferences last time out.
    Unlikely. Harney's vote is personal, and will go all over the place when she retires. And Moriarty is frrom the very opposite end of the constituency to Harney, so he'd be likely to benefit less than the others. And at the end of the day he'd have to finish well ahead of both Fitzgerald AND Spain of SF in order to win a seat. Unlikely.[/quote:2ee14im2]
    You're assuming that Moriarty will be the candidate again. Besides most of Harney's vote will go to FF when she retires

    [quote:2ee14im2]Brian Lenihan will be under pressure to bring in a second FF in Dublin West, especially if he becomes Tanaiste,
    A lot depends on what Joe Higgins does. A problem with 3-seaters that become 4-seaters is that the main parties rarely have ready-made second candidates lined up, and Dublin West is no different. As such, the one who came nearest to winning the previous time tends to come through when the seats are increased, as they have a better base built up than anyone else.[/quote:2ee14im2]
    If DW was a 4 seater in the last election FF would have won two seats. As it was a three seater the decision was made to allow BL to run up a massive vote hoovering up all FF votes in the constituency. Now that it's a 4 seater the FF vote will be split evenly and we'll win two seats. FF came within 3% of two quotas in a four seater(37.45%) in DW last time. It will be an easy pick up with the right candidate.
    [quote:2ee14im2]while Seamus Brennan and Tom Kitt will be under similiar pressure to bring in Maria Corrigan. She went very close last time out and will be in the hunt again.
    Its highly unlikely that Brennan will run again - so FF will be quite happy to hold two, and won't be realistically pushing for a third. [/quote:2ee14im2]
    The PDs will through everything at that constituncy with FOM, who unlike Liz O'Donnell is a worker and a good vote winner. The area added to the constituency was part of a strong area for her and if the PDs are still around she might take the mad hatter's seat. But without Brennen there won't be a third FF seat.
    [quote:2ee14im2]I think that FF will hold their existing seats in Leinster, though with Louth becoming a 5-seater, Dermot Ahern will be under pressure to bring in a third FF seat here.
    Again, the votes aren't really there. If Kirk retires, they've find a good candidate to replace him, while their only other prospect for growth is in Drogheda - but Frank Maher has been well and truly eclipsed by O'Dowd there. If you look at the party figures in Louth, the most likely winners of an extra seat are FG, followed by the Greens, and only then by FF. A particular problem for FF in such constituencies, where the Greens, FG and Labour are all well represented, is that transfers between those parties leave FF needing to do it all with first-preferences - and those votes just aren't there for them.[/quote:2ee14im2]
    The Greens will transfer to FF like the PDs did, mark my words.
    [quote:2ee14im2]In Munster, there will be some interesting contests to follow. Rumour has it that John Brasill has been canvassing North Kerry/WEst Limerick with Gerry Collins. Brasill has been mentioned as a second FF Candidate for some time now and his chance could come here. I think he will give McEllistrim a run for his money.
    Possibly, but that's not a gain. Its just replacing McEllistrim with Brassil. [/quote:2ee14im2]

    [quote:2ee14im2]In South Kerry, Tom Sheahan will be under pressure to hold on with the constituency reduced to two.
    Again, look at the votes. FG and Labour have 15,000 votes between them, against 22,000 for the combined FF/IND FF ticket. Without O'Donoghue's stature on the ticket, the FF vote must drop - but even if it doesn't, the combined 39% of the vote for FG/Labour would deliver a seat to one or the other. If its not Sheahan, it might even be Seamus Moynihan for Labour (if the rumours are true). But either way, there's too many votes there for them NOT to get a seat between them. [/quote:2ee14im2]
    A de facto gain for FF. 1 FF TD elected as CC, another elected by votes. if LP can get ahead of any INDs they will win a seat on left over FF transfers, SF and IND transfers too.
    Liquidate labour, liquidate stocks, liquidate the farmers, liquidate real estate.

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