Follow @PoliticsIE
 
 
 
Page 1 of 9 12345 ... LastLast
Results 1 to 10 of 82

Thread: Economic Crash: When will Panic with a capital P set in?

  1. #1

    Default Economic Crash: When will Panic with a capital P set in?

    Economic Crash: When will Panic with a capital P set in?

    We are living in very interesting times indeed and most certainly are in unchartered waters (especially for the new "celtic tiger" generation).

    Today we had growth rate predictions for '08 slashed to a level not seen since 1986. It looks now that this is not simply a rerun of the 2001-2003 slowdown; we are heading for proper humdinger of a recession.

    With the prices of essentials rising dramatically (esp. oil & food), property crashing, and tens of thousands of construction jobs gone, when will the ordinary joe en masse start to panic ? - panic that their job is at risk, panic that they cannot afford their mortgage repayments, panic that the value of the mortgage they are lumbered with is substantially more than they will ever get if they sold up, panic that they wont have the disposable income they need to enjoy the social life that they currently lead.

    There certainly will be a psychological inflection point - but when. My guess is September/October of this year, with the worst economic winter since 1983 to come- but at least we have each other though!

  2. #2
    Politics.ie Royalty toxic avenger's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2007
    Location
    London
    Posts
    19,031
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)

    Default Re: Economic Crash: When will Panic with a capital P set in?

    I foresee a boom in the slum bedsit rental industry, with banks sending in the bailiffs to oust thousands of people to whom they sold ridiculous mortgages. 100% mortgages on houses that couldn't possibly keep their value, and the banks just walk away, no comeback, no retribution. The morality of dogs.

  3. #3
    Politics.ie Member
    Join Date
    Oct 2004
    Location
    Derry
    Posts
    442
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)

    Default Re: Economic Crash: When will Panic with a capital P set in?

    September, yeah that's about right. Once people get back from their holliers and see the scale of their debt and the shakiness of their job and the size of their negative equity. Everyone will deny anything is wrong until they've had one last holiday.

    A lot of people are still in Denial, with some only starting to move into Fear. Panic is a good way off yet.

    I must admit I've been stunned and not a little disturbed and creeped out by the extreme length of the Denial phase. It usually takes bout 9 months....but here it has held sway for 2 full years now I don't know whether that means the other phases will be equally drawn-out; or whether all that pent-up Denial will burst all of a sudden and we'll move very rapidly to the bottom of the sentiment cycle.
    Je suis un loo-lah

  4. #4

    Default Re: Economic Crash: When will Panic with a capital P set in?

    Wonder will they chase the Eastern Europeans who'll do a legger very soon back to the fatherland. I stand to be corrected but I recall that in 2007 30% of mortages were given to non-nationals.

  5. #5
    Politics.ie Member Squire Allworthy's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2007
    Location
    Usually on the move.
    Posts
    1,404
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)

    Default Re: Economic Crash: When will Panic with a capital P set in?

    We have a bit of recession and after the long period of growth that will seem unfamiliar, but it will be like most recessions, some lose their jobs but most don't. As for general panic, that will only happen if Banks start to fold.

    We are just going to be a little poorer next year and judging by the way money has been squandered perhaps no bad thing?

  6. #6
    Politics.ie Member Squire Allworthy's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2007
    Location
    Usually on the move.
    Posts
    1,404
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)

    Default Re: Economic Crash: When will Panic with a capital P set in?

    Quote Originally Posted by Sidewinder
    September, yeah that's about right. Once people get back from their holliers and see the scale of their debt and the shakiness of their job and the size of their negative equity. Everyone will deny anything is wrong until they've had one last holiday.
    But most people do not have negative equity and in a recession the vast majority of people retain their jobs.

  7. #7
    Politics.ie Newbie
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Posts
    13
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)

    Default Re: Economic Crash: When will Panic with a capital P set in?

    Quote Originally Posted by Sidewinder
    September, yeah that's about right. Once people get back from their holliers and see the scale of their debt and the shakiness of their job and the size of their negative equity. Everyone will deny anything is wrong until they've had one last holiday.

    A lot of people are still in Denial, with some only starting to move into Fear. Panic is a good way off yet.

    I must admit I've been stunned and not a little disturbed and creeped out by the extreme length of the Denial phase. It usually takes bout 9 months....but here it has held sway for 2 full years now I don't know whether that means the other phases will be equally drawn-out; or whether all that pent-up Denial will burst all of a sudden and we'll move very rapidly to the bottom of the sentiment cycle.
    Sounds like you're in a panic already.

  8. #8
    Politics.ie Member
    Join Date
    Oct 2004
    Location
    Derry
    Posts
    442
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)

    Default Re: Economic Crash: When will Panic with a capital P set in?

    Quote Originally Posted by Squire Allworthy
    But most people do not have negative equity and in a recession the vast majority of people retain their jobs.
    But in our case, 23%-odd of our economy relies on construction and that will be falling to maybe 10% if we're "lucky". 25% is FDI, mostly US-based and the US economy has just disappeared down the toilet. And about 34% of the rest is public sector, and there will certainly be cuts there because the money simply isn't there anymore. And since joining the Euro we have no control over exchange rates (40% of our trade with US & UK), or interest rates (which will only be going up), nor can we run massive deficits to spend our way out of it because of the Stability Pact criteria. And there's a global credit crunch after the Great Credit Binge. And we've no savings and the most indebted populace on Earth. And we're the most expensive country in the Eurozone to live and do business in.

    We have little or no indiginous industry, we're simply too small to have a relatively-closed economy based on internal consumption, and the only Irish industry likely to be making money in the next 2 years is agriculture FFS.

    This is no normal recession.

    Where's the silver lining, eh? Which sectors of our economy, exactly, have anywhere near the spare capacity, growth potential, under-utilised skilled labour, and stable export markets to be able to ramp up this year and next to take up the slack?
    Je suis un loo-lah

  9. #9
    Politics.ie Member Squire Allworthy's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2007
    Location
    Usually on the move.
    Posts
    1,404
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)

    Default Re: Economic Crash: When will Panic with a capital P set in?

    Sidewinder

    You are as always a ray of sunshine.

    There are many jobs in construction that are overlooked, repairs maintenance and often when new build declines repairs etc increase. Though there will be a reduction. Civil Service well just how much can you reduce that? Health care or Education do you see room for reduction? We may buy less cars but do we make them, and we may drive less but do we have any oil? Less holidays abroad, less foreign homes bought etc We will have a couple of years of this and when we hit a floor off we go again.

    I think you are over stating and I say this as someone who believes we in the west have long ago lost our competitive advantage and are in for some sharp declines in relative importance and wealth.

  10. #10
    Politics.ie Member
    Join Date
    Jun 2006
    Location
    the gulag
    Posts
    278
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)

    Default Re: Economic Crash: When will Panic with a capital P set in?

    Theres a huge issue with indebtedness here and i am not just talking mortgages for the last 8 years the banks etc have been allowing people to max their credit cards take a term loan max them again consolidate debt etc all those options are now gone, the panic is starting to set in as the usual january credit card defaulters have now become the feb and march defaulters as well, the growth business for the next two years is the repo business.

Page 1 of 9 12345 ... LastLast

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •