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Thread: Longford-Westmeath: Call Next GE

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    Politics.ie Member sic transit's Avatar
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    Default Longford-Westmeath: Call Next GE

    Four-seater and one of a number of cross-county constituencies with the current incumbents, except Penrose, running again.

    Robert Troy FF
    Kevin Moran IA
    Peter Burke FG
    Willie Penrose Lab


    Troy was top of the poll and should return. Joe Flaherty has been selected for the Longford end and seems keen to "get" the FF seat back. FG will also run Gabrielle McFadden, who polled on the lower side and Cllr Michael Carrigy. Penrose and Alan Mangan will run for Labour. SF have gone with Mullingar based Sorcha Clarke. Former FG Cllr Frank Kilbride will run as an independent.One would expect two of the four seats to go to FF and FG. Moran should be returned I reckon. After that, with Penrose's departure it could turn out to be quite a scrap between SF, FF and possibly FG for that last seat, although there do seem to be reports of SF squabbles in the constituency.

    1 FF 1 FG 1 IA and one of FF/FG/SF and one of those counts that could go on for days!
    "There is nothing noble in being superior to your fellow man; true nobility is being superior to your former self." Ernest Hemingway

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    Are there still divisions in Sinn Fein in the constituency after Paul Hogan left? He had built up the party since the mid 2000's.

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    Politics.ie Member sic transit's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by devoutcapitalist View Post
    Are there still divisions in Sinn Fein in the constituency after Paul Hogan left? He had built up the party since the mid 2000's.
    Don't have the local knowledge on this, just reports I have read. All I know is the candidate for the next GE was unopposed.
    "There is nothing noble in being superior to your fellow man; true nobility is being superior to your former self." Ernest Hemingway

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    The idea is to integrate all 40 constituencies into an overall prediction on the main thread here:

    Constituency by constituency threads for the next GE: utilising the P.ie hive mind
    Put a thief among honest men and they will eventually relieve him of his watch. Flann O'Brien

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    Quote Originally Posted by sic transit View Post
    Four-seater and one of a number of cross-county constituencies with the current incumbents, except Penrose, running again.

    Robert Troy FF
    Kevin Moran IA
    Peter Burke FG
    Willie Penrose Lab


    Troy was top of the poll and should return. Joe Flaherty has been selected for the Longford end and seems keen to "get" the FF seat back. FG will also run Gabrielle McFadden, who polled on the lower side and Cllr Michael Carrigy. Penrose and Alan Mangan will run for Labour. SF have gone with Mullingar based Sorcha Clarke. Former FG Cllr Frank Kilbride will run as an independent.One would expect two of the four seats to go to FF and FG. Moran should be returned I reckon. After that, with Penrose's departure it could turn out to be quite a scrap between SF, FF and possibly FG for that last seat, although there do seem to be reports of SF squabbles in the constituency.

    1 FF 1 FG 1 IA and one of FF/FG/SF and one of those counts that could go on for days!
    Regional rivalries are as important here as party ones - there will have to be a Longford seat after last time, and FG and FF voters will transfer to each other to ensure this happens. Westmeath is divided into the Mullingar and Athlone spheres of interest. The Lab seat is gone (although Mangan will poll 4-5000 votes and his transfers may be critical) and the SF candidate is largely unknown in Longford and unlikely to poll well in Athlone because of lingering bitterness over the treatment of former candidate Paul Hogan.

    Troy (FF) is certain of reelection and one of the Longforders will also be elected, probably the FFer who has a slightly higer profile. There will certainly be 1 FG seat (more than likely Bourke again) but FG have always struggled with the second seat here, winning it only in 2011 in recent times. I would assume Boxer Moran has done enough in govt to override any backlash against indos - McFadden will certainly not trouble him unduly if she is running and he will largely have Athlone to himself.

    Hogan was an assumed shoo-in for a seat this time and gradually got closer and closer over the last few elections, but for reasons best known to themselves SF let him exit the party amid accusations and counter-accusations. Clarke will certainly poll well around Mullingar but I doubt this will be enough to get her the fourth seat.

    So really the only query is the Longford seat, which on balance I think will go to FF. FF 2, FG 1, IA 1.

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    Troy, Burke and Moran should be fine.
    As Midlander said definite Longford seat - although I think Longford second pref will stay in the county except for the die hards. Probably FF ahead of FG, so likely to benefit and take that last seat.

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    Quote Originally Posted by midlander12 View Post
    Troy (FF) is certain of reelection and one of the Longforders will also be elected, probably the FFer who has a slightly higer profile.

    ...

    So really the only query is the Longford seat, which on balance I think will go to FF. FF 2, FG 1, IA 1.
    I would have said that Carrigy has the higher profile having been a councillor since 2009, but the fundamentals should favour FF over FG (with two absolutely awful candidates last time, Gerety-Quinn came very close to outpolling Bannon despite having been imposed on a rebellious local FF organisation and with Troy taking 1,500 FF first preferences out of the county).

    On the plus side for FG, voters may switch to them if they look like being in government - although this is a very Dublin-focussed government from a rural POV.

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    What is James Bannon doing these days?
    The housing shortage is the rock on which Fine Gael will truly perish.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Golden Phoenix View Post
    What is James Bannon doing these days?
    Still attending the odd funeral, but the political career seems to be over.

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    Anyone care to call the 4th seat?
    Put a thief among honest men and they will eventually relieve him of his watch. Flann O'Brien

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