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Thread: Dublin West: Call the GE results

  1. #41
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    Varadkar has to bring in a second FGer if being Taoiseach with a 60%+ approval rating means anything. At whose expense - logically you would think Burton, but the far left's national decline could see Coppinger join Gino Kenny in the rejects slot. There will be few if any FG transfers around to help Burton, but then she got elected last time without them. FF not exactly secure either - only 16% last time, and a very conservative pro-life TD in a suburban constituency.

    In reality, 3 seats out of the 4 here could go any way between FG, FF, Lab, Coppinger and SF. Can't call it.

  2. #42
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    Quote Originally Posted by midlander12 View Post
    Varadkar has to bring in a second FGer if being Taoiseach with a 60%+ approval rating means anything.
    He doesn't have a 60% approval rating.

    At whose expense - logically you would think Burton, but the far left's national decline could see Coppinger join Gino Kenny in the rejects slot.
    You'd have to think there's a seat between Coppinger and SF, only question is who gets it.

    There will be few if any FG transfers around to help Burton, but then she got elected last time without them.
    True, but there were FG voters in Dublin West last time who knew that Varadkar was dafe so voted for Joan instead, and others who gave Noone No.1 and Burton No.2. Anyway if FG don't win a second seat, the elimination of Currie will elect Burton. One of those two, if eliminated, will elect the other.

    FF not exactly secure either - only 16% last time, and a very conservative pro-life TD in a suburban constituency.
    Abortion is rarely a big issue in elections. Anyway FF got 16% last time with an Independent FFer also getting 7%. That's a FF seat.

    In reality, 3 seats out of the 4 here could go any way between FG, FF, Lab, Coppinger and SF. Can't call it.
    No. 1 FG, 1 FF, one hard left, and one of Burton and Currie.
    "So how are things at the Campaign for the Freedom of Information, by the way?" "Sorry, I can't talk about that"

  3. #43
    Politics.ie Member Dame_Enda's Avatar
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    But isnt Burton retiring at the next election?
    "A great city is not to be confounded with a populous one." - Aristotle

  4. #44
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dame_Enda View Post
    But isnt Burton retiring at the next election?
    Someone on here started a thread to that effect, but produced zero supporting evidence. I'd say Burton is running, as if she wasn't Labour would be trying to get her replacement into the field as early as possible to get known.
    "So how are things at the Campaign for the Freedom of Information, by the way?" "Sorry, I can't talk about that"

  5. #45
    Politics.ie Member Catalpast's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by hiding behind a poster View Post
    He doesn't have a 60% approval rating.



    You'd have to think there's a seat between Coppinger and SF, only question is who gets it.



    True, but there were FG voters in Dublin West last time who knew that Varadkar was dafe so voted for Joan instead, and others who gave Noone No.1 and Burton No.2. Anyway if FG don't win a second seat, the elimination of Currie will elect Burton. One of those two, if eliminated, will elect the other.



    Abortion is rarely a big issue in elections. Anyway FF got 16% last time with an Independent FFer also getting 7%. That's a FF seat.



    No. 1 FG, 1 FF, one hard left, and one of Burton and Currie.
    Abortion is rarely a big issue in elections


    It was a manufactured issue anyway

    - by the Media & ultra Liberal groups

    - same as the Gay marriage Thing.

    Leo will top the poll but not bring home a Currie

    Jack the Lad will come in handsomely in 2nd place

    Now for the Cat Fight between messers the Grand Dame Bruton, Red Ruth & PD

    One of them will be the Loser for the last seat....


    If you can convince a People to engage in the mass elimination of their own offspring - you can probably get them to do anything...http://irelandinhistory.blogspot.ie/

  6. #46
    Politics.ie Member statsman's Avatar
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    The current state of our predictions, using a simpler model for the range:

    FG
    Max: 66
    Min: 51

    FF
    Max: 52
    Min 41

    SF
    Max 25
    Min 22

    Lab
    Max: 8
    Min:3

    PBP
    Max: 3
    Min: 1

    Sol
    Max: 2
    Min: 1

    SD
    Max: 4
    Min: 3

    Green
    Max: 2
    Min: 0

    Indos/others
    Max: 21
    Min: 16
    Put a thief among honest men and they will eventually relieve him of his watch. Flann O'Brien

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