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Thread: Whither Saudi Arabia?

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    Politics.ie Member Hillmanhunter1's Avatar
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    Default Whither Saudi Arabia?

    The stability that Saudi Arabia desperately wants and needs to project has suffered many (some self-inflicted) wounds.

    Trump publicly emasculated the King a few days, saying (rightly) that the Saudis wouldn't last two weeks without US support:
    Trump says Saudi Arabia's King Salman 'would not last two weeks' without US support | The Independent

    The Crown Prince seems petulant, vindictive and unpredictable. He has made a lot of enemies among the royal family and the religious. The floatation of part of Aramco, upon which his whimsical dreams of diversification depend, seems to be further away than ever.

    The blockade of Qatar is increasingly ineffective, and evidences little more that a bullying approach (or had they hoped to steal Qatar's gas and wealth?).

    The war in Yemen is a disaster - mainly because the Saudi (and Emirati) armies are disorganized and ill-disciplined - everything an army should not be. To misquote Lord Haw-Haw, the Saudi Army couldn't beat the tinkers out of Galway. If it were not for their air supremacy the Saudis would have been humiliated by now.

    Meanwhile the Saudis fly a plane-load of goons to Turkey to kill dissident journalist Jamal Khashoggi:
    Saudi journalist 'killed inside consulate' – Turkish sources | World news | The Guardian

    All of this against a backdrop that suggests that Saudi Arabia is the wellspring of much of the virulence that affects some parts of Islam, specifically Salafist-jihadism, and the terrorism that expresses this. Let us not forget that the role of Saudi Arabia in relation to the 9/11 attacks has never been published:
    The 28 Pages - Wikipedia

    We have all grown up assuming that Saudi Arabia is a monolithic unitary state, but it is no such thing, it is just the sum total of the lands that Ibn Saud managed to conquer. The kingdoms of Hejaz and Nedj could easily resurface, though perhaps more likely as Marxist republics, and the Shia-dominated Eastern provinces (where much of the oil is to be found) have never been subdued.
    Last edited by Hillmanhunter1; 7th October 2018 at 02:15 PM.
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    Politics.ie Member firefly123's Avatar
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    The sooner we find alternatives to their oil the sooner they can go back to being a flatter more sand Afghanistan.
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    Politics.ie Member Hillmanhunter1's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by firefly123 View Post
    The sooner we find alternatives to their oil the sooner they can go back to being a flatter more sand Afghanistan.
    Agreed, and that day is not as far away as we might think. The car companies are rushing headlong towards electric cars (and half of every barrel of oil is used in transportation) while in the medium term natural gas will increasingly supplant oil in electricity generation until greener options are more viable (which is why Saudi has been casting a beady eye over Qatar).
    “Fish die belly upward, and rise to the surface. It's their way of falling.” ― André Gide

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    Quote Originally Posted by Hillmanhunter1 View Post
    Agreed, and that day is not as far away as we might think. The car companies are rushing headlong towards electric cars (and half of every barrel of oil is used in transportation) while in the medium term natural gas will increasingly supplant oil in electricity generation until greener options are more viable (which is why Saudi has been casting a beady eye over Qatar).
    I'm thinking that day is still far away. Renewable energy sources are great but they aren't going to replace fossil fuels use entirely. I suspect that they won't reduce it by much at all. Flattening the growth in use and maybe a small dip is about as much as we can hope, with the growth in energy use coming from alternative sources instead. Which would lead to slightly less influence that oil nations/companies can bring to bear but it'll still be a lot.

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    Quote Originally Posted by onetimeonly View Post
    I'm thinking that day is still far away. Renewable energy sources are great but they aren't going to replace fossil fuels use entirely. I suspect that they won't reduce it by much at all. Flattening the growth in use and maybe a small dip is about as much as we can hope, with the growth in energy use coming from alternative sources instead. Which would lead to slightly less influence that oil nations/companies can bring to bear but it'll still be a lot.
    Indeed. As more alternatives come onstream, overall global demand keeps going up.

    It's true what Trump says regarding Saudi ceasing without US support. Maybe it's all part of Trump's Make America Great Again plan. It has more than enough of its own energy. Cut Saudi loose, much of the rest of the world faces catastrophe due to at least an immediate tripling of oil prices. It would chime with Trump's persona to follow through with it and make his detractors grovel at his feet. The ultimate ego boost for the ultimate egomaniac.

  6. #6

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    BBC has gone so far as to use the word murder:

    Jamal Khashoggi: Turkey says journalist was murdered in Saudi consulate

    It doesn't really matter though as long as you have friends in high places then you can do no wrong. This principle is being shoved in our faces more and more as even Nauru has told MSF to pack up and leave (MSF were working with abused Australian asylum seekers).
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    Politics.ie Member mr_anderson's Avatar
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    If all this is true, imagine how desperate the Crown Prince must be to do something like this.
    It could be a pointer that the fall may not be too far away.

    Beware what comes after though.

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    Politics.ie Member Hillmanhunter1's Avatar
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    "Turkish investigators say that a team of 15 Saudi agents killed him inside the consulate, several officials told The New York Times and other news organizations. “He was killed and his body was dismembered,” Turan Kislakci, the head of Turkish Arab Media Association, said officials had told him."

    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/07/w...di-arabia.html

    In terms of abusing diplomatic privileges this has to be at least on a par with the murder of PC Yvonne Fletcher.
    “Fish die belly upward, and rise to the surface. It's their way of falling.” ― André Gide

  9. #9

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    Quote Originally Posted by Hillmanhunter1 View Post
    "Turkish investigators say that a team of 15 Saudi agents killed him inside the consulate, several officials told The New York Times and other news organizations. “He was killed and his body was dismembered,” Turan Kislakci, the head of Turkish Arab Media Association, said officials had told him."

    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/07/w...di-arabia.html

    In terms of abusing diplomatic privileges this has to be at least on a par with the murder of PC Yvonne Fletcher.
    Trump may be right about the UN being useless if this murder is not discussed at the Security Council.
    Four seconds to midnight

  10. #10

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    Quote Originally Posted by Hillmanhunter1 View Post
    "Turkish investigators say that a team of 15 Saudi agents killed him inside the consulate, several officials told The New York Times and other news organizations. “He was killed and his body was dismembered,” Turan Kislakci, the head of Turkish Arab Media Association, said officials had told him."

    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/07/w...di-arabia.html

    In terms of abusing diplomatic privileges this has to be at least on a par with the murder of PC Yvonne Fletcher.
    Jeee-hosephet! Macabre.
    But howdjathink their supposed to get the body out undetected? Dem Arabs got Style! Each carries his own little suitcase.
    I wonder did they bring it all through customs?
    It could have been registered as diplomatic baggage.
    Someone should make a movie about this place.

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