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Thread: Whither USA when Non-Whites become the Majority?

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    Politics.ie Member owedtojoy's Avatar
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    Default Whither USA when Non-Whites become the Majority?

    The demographics of the USA has changed rapidly in the last 30 years. From an 80% White majority in 1980, that has dropped to less than 66% White majority in 2018 - from 4 out of 5 to 2 out of 3.

    [For discussion purposes, 'White' means a person of 100% European descent, except for Spain or Portugal. 'Non-White' means African, Hispanic, or Asian lineage]

    From the chart below [H/T, National Geographic], in abour 25 years those ratios will be 1 to 1, after which non-Whites become the majority. What difference will that make?


    Already, America's children reflect the new reality to come:


    America's white population is also aging rapidly, more rapidly than any of the minorities.

    The demographic change is already written, unless crackpot policies of mass deportations of minorities come to pass. Time to panic? It is already clear that White fear was the single biggest force that attracted Republican primary voters and then new general election voters to Donald Trump in 2016, and he capitalised with race-baiting and fear-mongering. e.g. Mexican rapists and Defensive walls.

    But it need not be so. The two largest American states by population, California and Texas, are already "majority-minority" states, one Blue and one Red. Under George W Bush and Karl Rove, Republicans saw an opportunity to attract conservative Catholic Latinos into the party. In fact, at one point in American history, Hispanics (Spanish speakers) were considered "White". Many Texan Latinos are Republican-voting.

    But racial posturing, such as Trump indulged in, drives people into race silos, and very few Latinos (from Latin American) or Hispanics, especially young ones, would consider the Republicans as a "natural" party for them. OTOH, Whites may also be driven into their racial silo, with a mutual hostility resulting. There is a risk of Democrats vs Republicans becoming the "Browns" (or "Off-Whites") versus the "Pure Whites" parties. The risk of violent division, on the scale of 20th or 19th century race riots, is obvious.

    Other possibilities are the emergence of a Latino-Black-Asians party that could bargain with both Republicans or Democrats as a key swing-vote constituency. Asians are also a demographic of increasing importance, based almost totally in the cities, and therefore most likely to be Democrat.

    Another demographic is the "mixed" category, with marriages across the old racial lines becoming more common. This is a good explanation for the generation gap on "politically correct speech". Young people are much more likely to encounter racial diversity and be ok with it than their elders.



    While many such as Ezra Klein write of the dangers of the violence of some Trump supporters and more radical right and alt-right element, a majority of Americans think diversity is a good thing for the country. In fact, Americans are far more positive about diversity than any European country.

    Noah Smith: "The real news here is that the American experiment - the idea that you can build a society that is both diverse and free - is actually working."

    White threat in a browning America
    How demographic change is fracturing our politics.


    Neighborhoods Back Up Americans' Diversity Talk
    Most people don't seem to have a problem living in racially mixed areas.


    As Churchill said, "You can count on the American people to do the right thing, after they've tried everything else."
    "A wise man proportions his belief to the evidence" - David Hume

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    Politics.ie Member The Eagle of the Ninth's Avatar
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    For a start, it will end the old transatlantic alliance which was always based on a fantasy of elitism, rather than genuine ties.

    Mega-wealthy WASPS in the c19 and c20 meddled a lot with the UK, but the descendants of poorer Italians, for example, never thought they were in charge of the destiny of Italy once they had moved to Long Island.

    The US will become in effect bilingual. Spanish will turn out to be a very persistent and successful language. US English, other than that spoken by a highly educated and rarified group, has already been wandering away for some time. Is anyone surprised?

    The US has already gone through so many changes. The one constant is the nation of lawyers.
    Plotting the witchcraft with my cats.

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    Politics.ie Member PBP voter's Avatar
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    During the 1960 campaign Kennedy proposed an overhaul of American immigration and naturalization laws to ban discrimination based on national origin. He saw this proposal as an extension of his planned civil rights agenda as president.[281] These reforms later became law through the Immigration and Nationality Act of 1965, which dramatically shifted the source of immigration from Northern and Western European countries towards immigration from Latin America and Asia. The policy change also shifted the emphasis in the selection of immigrants in favor of family reunification. The late-president's brother, Senator Edward Kennedy helped steer the legislation through the Senate.[282]
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_F...dy#Immigration

    A really bad decision.
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    Politics.ie Member HarshBuzz's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by PBP voter View Post
    Not if you look at long-term economic outperformance.

    If you come from the perspective of hankering back to the 1950s, when blacks knew their place and Mexicans stayed south of the Rio Grande, then maybe not so much. But who cares about such troglodytes?
    “'retail deposit flight, I don't see that as a great danger. Ireland is an island” - Brian Lenihan - to hundreds of international investors

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    Politics.ie Member ne0ica's Avatar
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    Sad. Really sad. The West is special I don't why the left are so intent on destroying it and turning it into a 3rd world ************************hole.
    'The wall will go up and Mexico will start behaving.'

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    Politics.ie Member PBP voter's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by HarshBuzz View Post
    Not if you look at long-term economic outperformance.

    If you come from the perspective of hankering back to the 1950s, when blacks knew their place and Mexicans stayed south of the Rio Grande, then maybe not so much. But who cares about such troglodytes?


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    Politics.ie Member stopdoingstuff's Avatar
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    It's far too early to know how it will work out and there are simply too many factors in play to say much. What is clearly the case though is that America has been very lucky that their recent immigrants have been Latin Americans. If they had been from the Middle East then California would be a different place now. But even then there are so many unknowns. It might seem mad but for all we know this could lay the foundation for all sorts of changes, up to and including changes in the border or perhaps the political relationship between the USA and Mexico. The future is wide open.
    Faoi mhóid bheith saor

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    Politics.ie Member HarshBuzz's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by PBP voter View Post


    Cheap Labour.
    For the uneducated, yes. It's a driver of growth.

    Every first world country needs a pool of cheap labour. You may have noticed the recent influx here.
    “'retail deposit flight, I don't see that as a great danger. Ireland is an island” - Brian Lenihan - to hundreds of international investors

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    Politics.ie Member twokidsmanybruises's Avatar
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    Good stuff. And good to see a well-constructed OP, links and diagrams and everything. I feared such things were a thing of the past.
    "A little lie goes a long way when you can't say quite for sure what's the truth" - Mark Oliver Everett

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    But racial posturing, such as Trump indulged in, drives people into race silos, and very few Latinos (from Latin American) or Hispanics, especially young ones, would consider the Republicans as a "natural" party for them.
    That is your opinion, but not fact. Trump opposes illegal immigration. And immigration from the America hating Islamic trouble spots as listed by the Obama administration. That is not racist, nor is it "racial posturing".

    Also, don't forget about Florida where republican loving latinos gave huge support to Trump. Not all latinos are the same you know.
    Other possibilities are the emergence of a Latino-Black-Asians party..
    Unlikely, as black and latino gangs are at each others throats in many neighbourhoods.

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