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Thread: So much for housing slump

  1. #1

    Default So much for housing slump

    Talking with a relative who runs a fairly large new homes site for a developer.

    FTB back into the market and on a neighbouring site open last weekend they booked 61 out of 65 available.

    His own site sold out last Sept / Oct on the planned starts to January and now Phase 2 has sold 60% with little advertising and no launch event.

    Few Investors seem to be in the market as almost all are being sold to owner occupiers.

    They revising future plans and applying for planning amendments from apartments to houses as clearly apartments are struggling to sell and will remain so for a while.

    Investors are gone which cools the house inflation and allows the FTBs back into the market which is good news.

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    LOL.

    Jaysus ye are getting desperate to prop up the old housing market. What exactly is it that makes so many people in Ireland so deranged about property?

    Accept that the market is dead, that it was a bubble, and that if ye would put a fraction of the energy and time that ye put into houses into actual real wealth-creating industries instead we'd be the richest country on Earth.

    No country ever got rich by building houses and selling them to one another. It doesn't bloody work. Get over it and do something useful with your life instead FFS. Something that might actually benefit the citizens of Ireland and create sustainable wealth for future generations.

    Bloody mucksavage peasantry.
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    Default Re: So much for housing slump

    Quote Originally Posted by odie1kanobe
    Talking with a relative who runs a fairly large new homes site for a developer.

    FTB back into the market and on a neighbouring site open last weekend they booked 61 out of 65 available.

    His own site sold out last Sept / Oct on the planned starts to January and now Phase 2 has sold 60% with little advertising and no launch event.

    Few Investors seem to be in the market as almost all are being sold to owner occupiers.

    They revising future plans and applying for planning amendments from apartments to houses as clearly apartments are struggling to sell and will remain so for a while.

    Investors are gone which cools the house inflation and allows the FTBs back into the market which is good news.
    I take it that you were not watching the 6.1 News then?

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    Default Re: So much for housing slump

    Quote Originally Posted by odie1kanobe
    Talking with a relative who runs a fairly large new homes site for a developer.

    FTB back into the market and on a neighbouring site open last weekend they booked 61 out of 65 available.

    His own site sold out last Sept / Oct on the planned starts to January and now Phase 2 has sold 60% with little advertising and no launch event.

    Few Investors seem to be in the market as almost all are being sold to owner occupiers.

    They revising future plans and applying for planning amendments from apartments to houses as clearly apartments are struggling to sell and will remain so for a while.

    Investors are gone which cools the house inflation and allows the FTBs back into the market which is good news.
    Where are these developments?

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    So much for the housing slump indeed. Housing crash more like.
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    Though welcome indeed, I'm fairly certain one development does not a property market make. I'm sure numerous posters here can point out several developments where sales of such quantity or speed is not the case.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Sidewinder
    LOL.

    Jaysus ye are getting desperate to prop up the old housing market. What exactly is it that makes so many people in Ireland so deranged about property?

    Accept that the market is dead, that it was a bubble, and that if ye would put a fraction of the energy and time that ye put into houses into actual real wealth-creating industries instead we'd be the richest country on Earth.

    No country ever got rich by building houses and selling them to one another. It doesn't bloody work. Get over it and do something useful with your life instead FFS. Something that might actually benefit the citizens of Ireland and create sustainable wealth for future generations.

    Bloody mucksavage peasantry.
    Agreed!

    Tell me odie how much did the developer have to reduce his prices by in order to get people to buy?

    There's still large amounts of empties and mothballed sites out there at the moment conservatively estimated at at least a few years supply. Moreover a few fire sales here and there will not put life back into the property market.

    Property is dying a slow death through the media because there is no will out there to report the truth about the great property pyramid. Denial I think it is called.

    The property boom/sham will in my opinion go down in Irish history as one great act of national suicide. The fact that people are still clinging to the beliefs that the current slide is short term and or that house prices roughly averaged at 10X times the average industrial wage is somehow justified reinforces my belief that this country is both in need of and deserving of a collective kick in the backside.

    That kick is coming though and no amount of waffle, wishfull thinking or spinning by the property Vested interests both large and small can do anything to stop it.

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    Probably Dalriada in Firhouse where the developer dropped prices by approx 20% and as a result the development was mobbed at the weekend.

    I own a couple of apartments which I have rented out at 1300 per month.
    Atthe peak, I probably could have sold these for 440,000. At the moment they're selling for around 370,000. I would suggest I'm insulated at 350,000 because that figure represents a yield of 4.5% which would be enough to stimulate investor activity. It's a long term play so I'm not as concerned as you might expect.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Milton Fine
    Probably Dalriada in Firhouse where the developer dropped prices by approx 20% and as a result the development was mobbed at the weekend.

    I own a couple of apartments which I have rented out at 1300 per month.
    Atthe peak, I probably could have sold these for 440,000. At the moment they're selling for around 370,000. I would suggest I'm insulated at 350,000 because that figure represents a yield of 4.5% which would be enough to stimulate investor activity. It's a long term play so I'm not as concerned as you might expect.
    You get 10% in state controlled India and better elsewhere so Ireland is not a good place to develop or invest in property. Hasn't been for the last few years. Your are making a return of 15,600 on 370,000 minus costs. That is assuming full rental and you don't have long periods of vacancy or the tenant from hell. Very marginal in my opinion. You are even devaluing your asset to get the 4.5% figure? You are in there and I suppose stuck so long term is the only option.

    On buy to let too many people are still thinking of making profit on increases in value rather than rental, that is not a good model and has been dubious for some time. House prices are not going up in the next few years.

    The problem with property is when it turns sour you are often stuck with large financial commitments and assets that can be very difficult to sell. If I had shares worth $500,000 I could access that money very quickly, a house of the same value, may take a year or more to sell and all the time it sits it costs money and ties up time.

    Like everything else the trick is to buy in the trough which will probably be 2 years out or with property keep an eye on likely changes in legislation that rezones or restricts development. If you can guess, or influence, likely changes you can make serious returns.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Fish
    Quote Originally Posted by Sidewinder
    LOL.

    Jaysus ye are getting desperate to prop up the old housing market. What exactly is it that makes so many people in Ireland so deranged about property?

    Accept that the market is dead, that it was a bubble, and that if ye would put a fraction of the energy and time that ye put into houses into actual real wealth-creating industries instead we'd be the richest country on Earth.

    No country ever got rich by building houses and selling them to one another. It doesn't bloody work. Get over it and do something useful with your life instead FFS. Something that might actually benefit the citizens of Ireland and create sustainable wealth for future generations.

    Bloody mucksavage peasantry.
    Agreed!

    Tell me odie how much did the developer have to reduce his prices by in order to get people to buy?

    There's still large amounts of empties and mothballed sites out there at the moment conservatively estimated at at least a few years supply. Moreover a few fire sales here and there will not put life back into the property market.

    Property is dying a slow death through the media because there is no will out there to report the truth about the great property pyramid. Denial I think it is called.

    The property boom/sham will in my opinion go down in Irish history as one great act of national suicide. The fact that people are still clinging to the beliefs that the current slide is short term and or that house prices roughly averaged at 10X times the average industrial wage is somehow justified reinforces my belief that this country is both in need of and deserving of a collective kick in the backside.

    That kick is coming though and no amount of waffle, wishfull thinking or spinning by the property Vested interests both large and small can do anything to stop it.
    I agree with some but not all of that.

    The market is falling has fallen and will continue to fall (just thought I'd get that out there at the beginning lest I be accused of talking up the market or being a mucksavage !)

    However - conservative estimates do not indicate "at least a few years supply". They estimate between 12 mths and 18 mths over supply and that builds in an expected wipe out of the immigrant buyer (which I think is accurate).

    The fundamental requirement for housing has not disappeared. Like most bubbles we over supplied and over priced. The market will now correct in 2 ways - on the supply side starts will more than likely crash completely this year. On the price side, most new estates have already cut by (on average) 10% and there is probably another 10% to come. The estates which have seen the big interest in sales (as mentioned by an earlier poster) are those where the developer made the cut in one jump - 20-25%

    People are cautious but not stupid. If they are in the market for a home and in a lot of cases they have now been in the market for their home for 6-12 months, they are seeing their affordability increase (salary increases, small tax cuts, mortgage interest relief increases, stamp duty cuts) and they are seeing the prices fall by 10-25%.

    In the same way that people posit that a short term property investor would have to be mad to buy in the current market equally if you are buying a home and one comes up that you like in the circumstances outlined above - you would be equally mad not to. (IMHO of course !)

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