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View Poll Results: What will be the result (your prediction, not intention) of the referendum on the 8th will be

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  • The result will be 'yes'.

    117 57.64%
  • The result will be 'no'.

    86 42.36%
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Thread: Predict The Referendum Result

  1. #1
    Politics.ie Member
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    Default Predict The Referendum Result

    This thread is a simple one, just predict how the referendum will go. You can add in information on how you expect certain constituencies to vote and turnout if you wish.

    I predict it will be yes 53% and no 47% with a turnout between 58 and 63%.

    The constituencies I expect to vote yes: all 11 Dublin constituencies,Kildare North,Wicklow,Louth,Cork south-central and Limerick City.

    The constituencies I expect to vote no: Donegal,Sligo-Leitrim,Cavan-Monaghan,Longford-Westmeath,Mayo,Galway-East,Roscommon-Galway,Kerry,Clare,Limerick County,Tipperary,Laois,Offaly,Cork North-West and Cork South-West.

    The constituencies that I am unsure of Wexford,Carlow-Kilkenny,Kildare South,Cork East,Cork north-central,Meath east,Meath west,Galway west and Waterford.

  2. #2
    Politics.ie Member flavirostris's Avatar
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    I'll go for the same as the Brexit result. 52% No and 48% Yes.
    "Criticising the EU in Ireland in the 2010's is like criticising the Catholic Church in the 1950s. You run the risk of being lynched by brainwashed fanatics." - Volatire

  3. #3
    Politics.ie Member President Bartlet's Avatar
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    I'll go 53% No 47% Yes

  4. #4
    Politics.ie Member Dame_Enda's Avatar
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    I think a yes vote but the polls have been a bit unstable so I think it could be close. I think younger men will be a key swing vote. It won't be like the Marriage Referendum in the size of the lead. I expect all the Dublin constituencies to vote yes, along with the Cork city, Galway city and Limerick city constituencies. I think though that while the margins will be different, the ones where the marriage referendum were close are a good guide to where the result will be close or even "no". I think Waterford will be close and could go narrowly against. Donegal will be "no", as well Roscommon-South Leitrim. I think Wexford will be a yes thanks partly to growing numbers of Dubliners in the north of the county. Cavan–Monaghan, Mayo, Galway East and Longford-Westmeath will be No. Carlow-Kilkenny will be close, as will Clare, Cork NW, Cork SW, Laois Offaly, Kerry NW Limerick.

    On balance then a "yes" vote in the 50-somethings.
    Last edited by Dame_Enda; 9th May 2018 at 08:06 PM. Reason: changed my mind on numbers
    Save the 27th.

  5. #5
    Politics.ie Member mac tíre's Avatar
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    55% Yes. 45% No. Turnout 63%
    'The rich always betray the poor’. - Henry Joy McCracken

  6. #6
    Politics.ie Member slysnara's Avatar
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    Not much point in predicting until after the televised debates.

    And the most recent polls only go as far as end of April.
    Save the 8th - Support a woman's right to be born.

  7. #7
    Politics.ie Member Sync's Avatar
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    Godammit Arsenal. I was going to go 53-47. Uh. 54-46. Yes. Maybe tighter if No focuses on the 3 month thing rather than the principle itself.
    Last edited by Sync; 9th May 2018 at 07:28 PM.
    I'm living in America, and in America, you're on your own. America's not a country. It's just a business. Now f***ing pay me.

  8. #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by arsenal View Post
    This thread is a simple one, just predict how the referendum will go. You can add in information on how you expect certain constituencies to vote and turnout if you wish.

    I predict it will be yes 53% and no 47% with a turnout between 58 and 63%.

    The constituencies I expect to vote yes: all 11 Dublin constituencies,Kildare North,Wicklow,Louth,Cork south-central and Limerick City.

    The constituencies I expect to vote no: Donegal,Sligo-Leitrim,Cavan-Monaghan,Longford-Westmeath,Mayo,Galway-East,Roscommon-Galway,Kerry,Clare,Limerick County,Tipperary,Laois,Offaly,Cork North-West and Cork South-West.

    The constituencies that I am unsure of Wexford,Carlow-Kilkenny,Kildare South,Cork East,Cork north-central,Meath east,Meath west,Galway west and Waterford.
    I think that's a very reasonable analysis. I'd disagree slightly - I think the margin will be closer to 55% Repeal-45% Retain on a slightly higher turnout figure - maybe 60%-65%. My own guess is Kildare South and Meath East will Repeal.

  9. #9
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    Yes 55%, No 45%. Turnout under 60% as many will stay at home because, while they support Repeal, they do not agree with abortion on demand.
    End biased moderation

  10. #10
    Politics.ie Member stopdoingstuff's Avatar
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    50.5-49.5, No side wins. Lesbian child haters immediately morph into demons and spew vaginal lava on the innocent.
    Faoi mhóid bheith saor

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