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Thread: 53% support unrestricted abortion in the first 12 weeks - Irish Daily Mail poll 29/12/17

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    Politics.ie Member Emily Davison's Avatar
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    Default 53% support unrestricted abortion in the first 12 weeks - Irish Daily Mail poll 29/12/17

    Here is a link to the abortion poll done by the Irish Daily Mail on the 29th December 2017

    https://www.pressreader.com/ireland/...81479276790344

    As I can not copy paste any of the article here is a summary:

    1. 53.2 % said they would support the right to abortion in the first 12 weeks of pregnancy – unrestricted abortion
    2. 26.8 % are against
    3. 12.7% are don't knows
    4. 7.4 % who wouldn't say what they would do

    - Leaving out 3 & 4 means a 2 to 1 majority would carry the vote to repeal
    - It's the first poll since the Dail committee recommendations
    - Fears of it being too liberal seem to be unfounded
    - Simon Coveney has expressed disquiet about the 12 week limit, but, he is reading the committee report
    - All age groups would vote to repeal except those over 65
    - 85% in favour in the 18 – 24 year age bracket
    - No gender difference
    - FF voters 50% in favour, 20% don't know, 30% firmly opposed
    - FG voters 68% in favour, excluding the don't knows, so it's 68% in favour and 32% against
    - Composition of turnout is important – pro-choice young men not being interested given as an example
    - 1,144 people polled by telephone between December 14th and 22nd.

    Anybody surprised at the figures. Seems a very comfortable majority in favour of removing the 8th. How can those against repeal increase the figures. If they send out the likes of Ronan Mullins they only hinder their cause. Anybody disagree? Who exactly is going to be to the forefront of the referendum campaign.

    (and sorry for the new thread, I thought the poll warranted it as the figures are so surprising)
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    Quote Originally Posted by Emily Davison View Post
    Here is a link to the abortion poll done by the Irish Daily Mail on the 29th December 2017

    https://www.pressreader.com/ireland/...81479276790344

    As I can not copy paste any of the article here is a summary:

    1. 53.2 % said they would support the right to abortion in the first 12 weeks of pregnancy – unrestricted abortion
    2. 26.8 % are against
    3. 12.7% are don't knows
    4. 7.4 % who wouldn't say what they would do

    - Leaving out 3 & 4 means a 2 to 1 majority would carry the vote to repeal
    - It's the first poll since the Dail committee recommendations
    - Fears of it being too liberal seem to be unfounded
    - Simon Coveney has expressed disquiet about the 12 week limit, but, he is reading the committee report
    - All age groups would vote to repeal except those over 65
    - 85% in favour in the 18 – 24 year age bracket
    - No gender difference
    - FF voters 50% in favour, 20% don't know, 30% firmly opposed
    - FG voters 68% in favour, excluding the don't knows, so it's 68% in favour and 32% against
    - Composition of turnout is important – pro-choice young men not being interested given as an example
    - 1,144 people polled by telephone between December 14th and 22nd.

    Anybody surprised at the figures. Seems a very comfortable majority in favour of removing the 8th. How can those against repeal increase the figures. If they send out the likes of Ronan Mullins they only hinder their cause. Anybody disagree? Who exactly is going to be to the forefront of the referendum campaign.

    (and sorry for the new thread, I thought the poll warranted it as the figures are so surprising)
    Link not working, don't pay any heed to OP, they have being proved to being wrong

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    Politics.ie Member Finbar10's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Emily Davison View Post
    Here is a link to the abortion poll done by the Irish Daily Mail on the 29th December 2017

    https://www.pressreader.com/ireland/...81479276790344

    As I can not copy paste any of the article here is a summary:

    1. 53.2 % said they would support the right to abortion in the first 12 weeks of pregnancy – unrestricted abortion
    2. 26.8 % are against
    3. 12.7% are don't knows
    4. 7.4 % who wouldn't say what they would do

    - Leaving out 3 & 4 means a 2 to 1 majority would carry the vote to repeal
    - It's the first poll since the Dail committee recommendations
    - Fears of it being too liberal seem to be unfounded
    - Simon Coveney has expressed disquiet about the 12 week limit, but, he is reading the committee report
    - All age groups would vote to repeal except those over 65
    - 85% in favour in the 18 – 24 year age bracket
    - No gender difference
    - FF voters 50% in favour, 20% don't know, 30% firmly opposed
    - FG voters 68% in favour, excluding the don't knows, so it's 68% in favour and 32% against
    - Composition of turnout is important – pro-choice young men not being interested given as an example
    - 1,144 people polled by telephone between December 14th and 22nd.

    Anybody surprised at the figures. Seems a very comfortable majority in favour of removing the 8th. How can those against repeal increase the figures. If they send out the likes of Ronan Mullins they only hinder their cause. Anybody disagree? Who exactly is going to be to the forefront of the referendum campaign.

    (and sorry for the new thread, I thought the poll warranted it as the figures are so surprising)
    There's a better link here: https://www.irelandthinks.ie/single-.../poll-abortion with more detailed results. The survey was done by "Ireland Thinks" which as their site says is "is the Irish polling arm of xy Campaigns Ltd". Can't say I'm familiar with them.

    It generally does seem out of kilter with previous (even fairly recent) surveys by RedC and IPSOS/MRBI. Maybe there has been a big shift in opinion. However, they do use random telephone polling. As was seen in UK election polling of this type, unless one is very careful, it can be hard to screen out certain demographic biases (even though one tries to do that). Other companies use this also but it can be hard to get right. I would have more confidence if such a result had been produced by RedC or similar established company. Then we'd have previous past results with similar methodology to compare them with (and a relative shift would be evident). This may be a shift or it may be an artifact of their methodology or telephone sampling techniques.
    Last edited by Finbar10; 3rd January 2018 at 12:45 PM.
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    Politics.ie Member ruserious's Avatar
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    While personally against abortion, in most cases, I have come to believe it is a personal choice for one to make. So I will probably vote to repeal but would advise against abortion in most cases in the unlikely event of my advice being sought on the issue.
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    Politics.ie Member Sync's Avatar
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    I’d view that as an outlier until shown otherwise. 41% of over 65s being in favour of it sounds...odd.
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    Politics.ie Member Emily Davison's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Round tower View Post
    Link not working, don't pay any heed to OP, they have being proved to being wrong
    I cannot do anything about the link, it's beyond my technical capabilities but it works for me. Try googling the following:

    Irish daily mail abortion poll

    I have summarised most of it in the OP because of the difficulties with the linking.

    In addition the polls is mentioned in the Irish Examiner, but oddly the IE does not mention their source:

    Katherine Zappone: Straight

    An opinion poll, last week, suggests 53% of people would support a straight repeal vote in a referendum and legislation allowing unrestricted abortion in the first 12 weeks of pregnancy.
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    Politics.ie Member gerhard dengler's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Finbar10 View Post
    The survey was done by "Ireland Thinks" which as their site says is "is the Irish polling arm of xy Campaigns Ltd". .
    You've just delivered the head shot.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Sync View Post
    I’d view that as an outlier until shown otherwise. 41% of over 65s being in favour of it sounds...odd.
    I think it fits. The 8th failed. Even people who are against abortion realise this and see the need for change.

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    Politics.ie Member Emily Davison's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Finbar10 View Post
    There's a better link here: https://www.irelandthinks.ie/single-.../poll-abortion with more detailed results. The survey was done by "Ireland Thinks" which as their site says is "is the Irish polling arm of xy Campaigns Ltd". Can't say I'm familiar with them.

    It generally does seem out of kilter with previous (even fairly recent) surveys by RedC and IPSOS/MRBI. Maybe there has been a big shift in opinion. However, they do use random telephone polling. As was seen in UK election polling of this type, unless one is very careful, it can be hard to screen out certain demographic biases (even though one tries to do that). Other companies use this also but it can be hard to get right. I would have more confidence if such a result had been produced by RedC or similar established company. Then we'd have previous past results with similar methodology to compare them with (and a relative shift would be evident). This may be a shift or it may be an artifact of their methodology or telephone sampling techniques.

    Thanks for that link, it is much the same as the article. I've no idea about the difference between the polling companies. It does indeed seem a big shift. But if you think about it, in the last month alone many of the TD's have come out strongly pro choice. That is a big change as well. Perhaps they are reflecting the public mood. And the public mood will have been influenced by how well the Citizen's assembly was conducted followed on by the excellent handeling of the Oireachtas Committee under the chairmanship of Catherine Noone. People have been listening and engaging, one assumes.
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    Politics.ie Member Half Nelson's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ruserious View Post
    While personally against abortion, in most cases, I have come to believe it is a personal choice for one to make. So I will probably vote to repeal but would advise against abortion in most cases in the unlikely event of my advice being sought on the issue.
    It's a choice we'll all be asked to make... and to live and die with the consequences of our action.

    How fitting that such a poll would be announced on the day after we recall the mass slaughter of innocent children.

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