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Thread: Irish Election Stats - Probability figure for each candidate

  1. #1
    Politics.ie Member davehiggz's Avatar
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    Default Irish Election Stats - Probability figure for each candidate

    Hi folks,

    I've just launched Irish Election Stats, a site you may be interested in. It brings together various data sources into a single statistical model to forecast seats for the election.

    First time I've attempted something like this, but very pleased with the output so far. As new polls emerge, the forecasts will change.

    I'm a huge fan of Nate Silver and his work on US elections. I've done my best to adapt his approach to the Irish system. We'll know on the 27th whether it's worked or not.

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    Politics.ie Member flavirostris's Avatar
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    Wow . That is some awesome work
    "Criticising the EU in Ireland in the 2010's is like criticising the Catholic Church in the 1950s. You run the risk of being lynched by brainwashed fanatics." - Volatire

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    Well done, Dave.

    How do you manage to project second, third, fourth preferences? Nate Silver has a much easier task sine the US has a different electoral process.
    History will record with the greatest astonishment that those who had the most to lose did the least to prevent its happening.

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    Politics.ie Member ruserious's Avatar
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    Any chance you'd buy this site? Well done.
    Boycott the "Irish" Sun rag.

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    The two SF candidates in DBN each have 80% plus probability of being elected?
    Going from 0/6 to 2/5.
    Really?
    (There is a high chance I don't understand probability).

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    Good work.

    Just a warning, almost every table/graph except for the Dáil make-up graph are not showing up in IE11 or IE Metro on Windows 8.1. Most stats show that more people use IE than Firefox or Safari, so it'd be a good idea to make sure it works. I'll update IE here and see if it makes a difference.

    Edit: Still definitely not on IE. I thought it was an iframe issue except it works on Windows Mobile IE, so I'm guessing it's a Datawrapper thing.
    Last edited by sadcitizen; 12th February 2016 at 03:52 PM.

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    Politics.ie Member tigerben's Avatar
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    Excellent work , well done you .

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    Politics.ie Member General Urko's Avatar
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    Good work mate!
    The Swedish Anti Sex Worker Model Destroys Sex Workers And That's A Known Consequence By Its Supporters!

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    Does Regina Doherty get re-elected? If the answer is yes, then I hope your site gets shut down.


    I have no money, but I love my life.

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    Politics.ie Member Cathalio11's Avatar
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    Sinn Fein 99% and Labour 92% to win a seat in Carlow/Kilkenny. Now that is audacious.

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