Follow @PoliticsIE
 
 
 
Page 1 of 4 1234 LastLast
Results 1 to 10 of 35

Thread: GDP growth of 6% in 2007 now very likely.

  1. #1
    Politics.ie Member
    Join Date
    May 2007
    Posts
    198
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)

    Default GDP growth of 6% in 2007 now very likely.

    The third quarter GDP/GNP figures (link below) were published by the CSO this morning. They confirm that GDP growth in 2007 will be around 6% in 2007. For the first three quarters of 2007 GDP was up by 6.0% compared with the first three quarters of 2006. For the first three quarters of 2007 GNP was up by 5.9% compared with the first three quarters of 2006. In the fourth quarter of 2006 GDP actually fell, so the upshot is that, even if there is no further growth in GDP in the fourth quarter of 2007, GDP growth for 2007 as a whole will be just over 6%. If there is even modest growth of about 1% in GDP in the fourth quarter of 2007, then GDP growth for 2007 as a whole will be about 6.25%. GNP growth is a bit more volatile and unpredictable than GDP growth because it partly depends on the timing of multi-national companies payments abroad. But, in the first three quarters of 2007, GNP growth and GDP growth are virtually identical, 6.0% for GDP, 5.9% for GNP. The final year figures for 2007 are very likely to be of similar magnitude.

    It is nice to end the year's posting on P.ie on a note of triumph. I've consistently predicted that GDP growth for 2007 would be 5.8%. A couple of weeks ago, on one of Ard-Taoiseach's threads (can't remember which), I revised my forecast up to the range 6.0% to 6.5%. Its now clear I was spot on. Contrast this with forecasters like ESRI, Davy, even Brian Cowen. In the past couple of months ESRI and Davy revised their 2007 GDP forecasts down to 4.4% and 4.0% respectively, while Brian Cowen revised his 2007 GDP forecast down to 4.75%. At the time I posted that they were wrong to revise their forecasts down and predicted that GDP growth in 2006 would be around 6.0%, exactly as predicted at the start of the year. They'll all have to scramble to revise their 2007 forecasts back up again in the next few weeks. Of particular note is that GNP in the third quarter of 2007 was 6.0% up on the third quarter of 2006. How often have we been told by the doommonger posters on P.ie that 2007 would be a year of two halves, that year-on-year growth in the second half of 2007 would collapse to 1% (which they describe as 'skirting with recession')? Not in their wildest nightmares did they envisage year-on-year GNP growth in the second half of 2007 being 6%.

    ESRI are worthy of particular attention. Its a standard ESRI ploy over the years that, when CSO figures are published that show ESRI's forecast for the current year to be hopelessly wrong, they try to distract attention from that fact by publishing their forecast for the following year on the same day. Thus, for the past few months ESRI have been forecasting 4.4% GDP growth in 2007. The CSO figures out today show that their 2007 forecast will be wrong by about 2%. But, hey, never mind, publish the 2008 forecast to coincide with the CSO figures and hope that nobody will notice that the 2007 forecast is hopelessly wrong.

    http://www.cso.ie/releasespublications/ ... nt/qna.pdf

  2. #2
    Politics.ie Member
    Join Date
    Aug 2007
    Location
    Dublin, Ireland
    Posts
    746
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)

    Default

    Excellent stuff, freedomlover, I might add that this ties in nicely with my own 6% forecast too!

    Very encouraging to see things like exports and industry lead growth again, with consumption providing additional buoyancy.
    Private profit for public gain!

  3. #3
    Politics.ie Member
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Posts
    969
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)

    Default

    I am reallly excited about 2006 after seeing these figures.

  4. #4
    Politics.ie Member
    Join Date
    May 2007
    Location
    south east
    Posts
    2,067
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)

    Default

    Some forecasters are putting 08 figures at around the 3.5 mark, are they right in doing so or what???
    There is something pigheaded about Wexford this season, something pigheaded and perverse and oddly beautiful. In certain lights they are starting to look heroic.

  5. #5
    Politics.ie Member
    Join Date
    Sep 2005
    Location
    D4
    Posts
    145
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Dillinger
    I am reallly excited about 2006 after seeing these figures.
    Oh dear. I think you may be in for a bit of a disappointment.
    The standard of excellence is an infinite suggestiveness, naturalism is the one thing to be condemned.

  6. #6
    Politics.ie Newbie Blue Tide's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Posts
    15
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)

    Default

    From the business section of RTE.ie:
    "According to new figures from the Central Statistics Office, the economy was buoyed up by strong spending by consumers and the Government sector. However, investment in the economy was down by 7.5%."

    Consumer spending and government spending are not sustainable sources of economic growth and only serve to plaster ove cracks, giving a false impression of the actual economic situation. If it was export led growth or growth as a result of increased investment, these figures would be a source of comfort. Consumer spending will be hit by the increased unemployment of the construction sector next year and I'm sure they'll be less in the government's coffers to spend as well.
    Economic Left/Right: 0.38
    Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -3.13

  7. #7
    Politics.ie Member
    Join Date
    Aug 2007
    Location
    Dublin, Ireland
    Posts
    746
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Armchair Activist
    Some forecasters are putting 08 figures at around the 3.5 mark, are they right in doing so or what???
    I'd put growth next year at about 4.5%, the ESRI have forecast 2.3% today and if you add 2% to their predictions, you get what the growth figure will be.
    Private profit for public gain!

  8. #8
    Politics.ie Member rockofcashel's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2005
    Location
    Ireland
    Posts
    7,956
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)

    Default Re: GDP growth of 6% in 2007 now very likely.

    Quote Originally Posted by freedomlover
    The third quarter GDP/GNP figures (link below) were published by the CSO this morning. They confirm that GDP growth in 2007 will be around 6% in 2007. For the first three quarters of 2007 GDP was up by 6.0% compared with the first three quarters of 2006. For the first three quarters of 2007 GNP was up by 5.9% compared with the first three quarters of 2006. In the fourth quarter of 2006 GDP actually fell, so the upshot is that, even if there is no further growth in GDP in the fourth quarter of 2007, GDP growth for 2007 as a whole will be just over 6%. If there is even modest growth of about 1% in GDP in the fourth quarter of 2007, then GDP growth for 2007 as a whole will be about 6.25%. GNP growth is a bit more volatile and unpredictable than GDP growth because it partly depends on the timing of multi-national companies payments abroad. But, in the first three quarters of 2007, GNP growth and GDP growth are virtually identical, 6.0% for GDP, 5.9% for GNP. The final year figures for 2007 are very likely to be of similar magnitude.

    It is nice to end the year's posting on P.ie on a note of triumph. I've consistently predicted that GDP growth for 2007 would be 5.8%. A couple of weeks ago, on one of Ard-Taoiseach's threads (can't remember which), I revised my forecast up to the range 6.0% to 6.5%. Its now clear I was spot on. Contrast this with forecasters like ESRI, Davy, even Brian Cowen. In the past couple of months ESRI and Davy revised their 2007 GDP forecasts down to 4.4% and 4.0% respectively, while Brian Cowen revised his 2007 GDP forecast down to 4.75%. At the time I posted that they were wrong to revise their forecasts down and predicted that GDP growth in 2006 would be around 6.0%, exactly as predicted at the start of the year. They'll all have to scramble to revise their 2007 forecasts back up again in the next few weeks. Of particular note is that GNP in the third quarter of 2007 was 6.0% up on the third quarter of 2006. How often have we been told by the doommonger posters on P.ie that 2007 would be a year of two halves, that year-on-year growth in the second half of 2007 would collapse to 1% (which they describe as 'skirting with recession')? Not in their wildest nightmares did they envisage year-on-year GNP growth in the second half of 2007 being 6%.

    ESRI are worthy of particular attention. Its a standard ESRI ploy over the years that, when CSO figures are published that show ESRI's forecast for the current year to be hopelessly wrong, they try to distract attention from that fact by publishing their forecast for the following year on the same day. Thus, for the past few months ESRI have been forecasting 4.4% GDP growth in 2007. The CSO figures out today show that their 2007 forecast will be wrong by about 2%. But, hey, never mind, publish the 2008 forecast to coincide with the CSO figures and hope that nobody will notice that the 2007 forecast is hopelessly wrong.

    http://www.cso.ie/releasespublications/ ... nt/qna.pdf
    which is more appropriate :



    or

    1,197 people agree with me.. how many agree with you ?

  9. #9
    Politics.ie Member rockofcashel's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2005
    Location
    Ireland
    Posts
    7,956
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Blue Tide
    From the business section of RTE.ie:
    "According to new figures from the Central Statistics Office, the economy was buoyed up by strong spending by consumers and the Government sector. However, investment in the economy was down by 7.5%."
    Yup.. SSIA money and election spending..

    wheres the boost coming from next year
    1,197 people agree with me.. how many agree with you ?

  10. #10
    Politics.ie Member
    Join Date
    May 2007
    Location
    south east
    Posts
    2,067
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)

    Default

    [quote=Ard-Taoiseach][quote="Armchair Activist":kjhlj6if]Some forecasters are putting 08 figures at around the 3.5 mark, are they right in doing so or what???[/quote]

    I'd put growth next year at about 4.5%, the ESRI have forecast 2.3% today and if you add 2% to their predictions, you get what the growth figure will be.[/quote:kjhlj6if]

    Was just reading their grim report alright

    [url="http://www.build.ie/construction_news.asp?newsid=69962"]http://www.build.ie/construction_news.asp?newsid=69962[/url]
    There is something pigheaded about Wexford this season, something pigheaded and perverse and oddly beautiful. In certain lights they are starting to look heroic.

Page 1 of 4 1234 LastLast

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •