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Thread: So, what now for Scottish Nationalism?

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    Default So, what now for Scottish Nationalism?

    OK, it's been a few weeks now since the referendum - Scotland remains in the UK for now, but is this the end of the campaign for Scottish Independence?

    Some Unionists might want to think of Scottish Nationalism as having been "dealt" with, seeing that the Union side won by a "decisive" margin in the referendum and made Alex Salmond, arguably the most charismatic leader in 21st century Britain, leave the political arena. In their mind, the Nationalists have lost decisively, and should now just shut up and accept their place in the Kingdom
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/poli...overnight.html

    However, that belief not only naive, but it is totally mistaken.

    45% of the Scottish people decided on the 18th of September - "you know what, feck the rest of ye, we'd rather be governed by our own government, not the one England wants to give us" (or something to that effect). 45% is a lot more than the low 30's predicted a year out before the vote, and more importantly in the Westminster FPTP system, Glasgow and some other Labour strongholds voted "YES", which in itself leaves Labour vulnerable if the Pro-Independence parties decided to run "unity" candidates in the next GE in 2015.

    Also, some might forgot that the promise of what is effectively Devolution Max in exchange for staying in the Union did help clinch the NO vote - you may quibble that, but you can't deny polls showing over two-third support for Devo max. The powers struggle: poll reveals support for devo max | Herald Scotland

    However, by linking Scottish Devolution to the West Lothian question, David Cameron has become embroiled in a political squabble with Labour over "English Votes for English laws" - which Labour rejects. However, this squabbling is not going down well in Scotland, which leaves the door open for the SNP, under it's new leader, Nicola Sturgeon, to champion the cause of Scottish Devolution.

    And by god, the SNP will sure have the men(and women) to do so. The SNP's membership has surged dramatically, from around 25,000 before the referendum to over 76,000 in less than three weeks, as the grassroots army moblised by the pan-nationalist YES Scotland campaign search for a political home (other smaller pro-independence parties, such as the Scottish Greens, have seen similarly dramatic rises in membership). In comparison, both the Scottish Labour and Scottish Tory parties have less than 30,000 members between them, and the SNP is now the largest party in Britian after the UK-wide Tory and Labour parties.

    What do I think?
    1) If the SNP/other pro-Independence parties don't take some seats from Labour in 2015, I'll eat my laptop.
    2) If - and this is looking very likely - the Tories/Labour screw up the implementation of Devo Max, then that will benefit the Nationalists in the long run, as come the next referendum, it'll be difficult to have last-minute promises about more powers for Scotland within the UK taken seriously.
    3) If Westminster does give Scotland Devo Max, then it could give the oppertunity for the SNP to prove that Scotland is capable of standing on it's own two feet, which could aid another Independence bid in the future.

    Either way, Scottish Nationalism isn't going to be killed "stone dead" quite as easily as some Unionists may like.

    NOTE - By "Unionist", I refer to all those who favours Scotland remaining in the UK. I'm not referring only to the "Unionist" community in the North.

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    Politics.ie Member ger12's Avatar
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    Train has left the station now, and it ain't stopping.
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    I can see another referendum in the next 10 years if the Westminster establishment fail to keep their promises on Devo Max.

    If the Tories or Labour implement Devo Max then It will probably be another 20 years before there is another referendum on Devo Max.

    As regards the 2015 election I can see many Labour voters sticking with Labour in order to keep the Tories even if many of these voters support Scottish Independence.

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    They can stick their flower of Scotland up their arse come the next Six Nations is what.
    Boycott the "Irish" Sun rag.

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    Quote Originally Posted by devoutcapitalist View Post
    As regards the 2015 election I can see many Labour voters sticking with Labour in order to keep the Tories even if many of these voters support Scottish Independence.
    However, that's if they work under the assumption that a Pro-Independence candidate doesn't have a hope - and that's certainly not the case in Glasgow now.

    Also, if Labour are forced to make noises about restricting the power of Scottish MPs in order to appease the English media and downplay calls for devo max, that will hand a gift to the Nationalists to exploit.

    Finally, seeing that the SNP now have 5 times as many members as Scottish Labour, I'd be shocked if they don't manage to take at least a couple of seats from labour with that talent pool.

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    Politics.ie Member RasherHash's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by devoutcapitalist View Post
    I can see another referendum in the next 10 years if the Westminster establishment fail to keep their promises on Devo Max.

    If the Tories or Labour implement Devo Max then It will probably be another 20 years before there is another referendum on Devo Max.

    As regards the 2015 election I can see many Labour voters sticking with Labour in order to keep the Tories even if many of these voters support Scottish Independence.
    Devo Max will probably be indistinguishable from independence.
    "In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act". Orwell.

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    Quote Originally Posted by RasherHash View Post
    Devo Max will probably be indistinguishable from independence.
    Which could weaken efforts by a future NO campaign to resort to scaremongering.

    "If you vote for Independence, we won't be getting transfers from England, and we'd be bankrupt....oh wait, a devo max Scotland doesn't get any transfers anyways"

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    Quote Originally Posted by ger12 View Post
    Train has left the station now, and it ain't stopping.
    The Quebec train left a good while earlier. Any idea when that one is due?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mattarigna View Post
    OK, it's been a few weeks now since the referendum - Scotland remains in the UK for now, but is this the end of the campaign for Scottish Independence?

    Some Unionists might want to think of Scottish Nationalism as having been "dealt" with, seeing that the Union side won by a "decisive" margin in the referendum and made Alex Salmond, arguably the most charismatic leader in 21st century Britain, leave the political arena. In their mind, the Nationalists have lost decisively, and should now just shut up and accept their place in the Kingdom
    It would be bonkers to rewrite the constitution overnight - Telegraph

    However, that belief not only naive, but it is totally mistaken.

    45% of the Scottish people decided on the 18th of September - "you know what, feck the rest of ye, we'd rather be governed by our own government, not the one England wants to give us" (or something to that effect). 45% is a lot more than the low 30's predicted a year out before the vote, and more importantly in the Westminster FPTP system, Glasgow and some other Labour strongholds voted "YES", which in itself leaves Labour vulnerable if the Pro-Independence parties decided to run "unity" candidates in the next GE in 2015.

    Also, some might forgot that the promise of what is effectively Devolution Max in exchange for staying in the Union did help clinch the NO vote - you may quibble that, but you can't deny polls showing over two-third support for Devo max. The powers struggle: poll reveals support for devo max | Herald Scotland

    However, by linking Scottish Devolution to the West Lothian question, David Cameron has become embroiled in a political squabble with Labour over "English Votes for English laws" - which Labour rejects. However, this squabbling is not going down well in Scotland, which leaves the door open for the SNP, under it's new leader, Nicola Sturgeon, to champion the cause of Scottish Devolution.

    And by god, the SNP will sure have the men(and women) to do so. The SNP's membership has surged dramatically, from around 25,000 before the referendum to over 76,000 in less than three weeks, as the grassroots army moblised by the pan-nationalist YES Scotland campaign search for a political home (other smaller pro-independence parties, such as the Scottish Greens, have seen similarly dramatic rises in membership). In comparison, both the Scottish Labour and Scottish Tory parties have less than 30,000 members between them, and the SNP is now the largest party in Britian after the UK-wide Tory and Labour parties.

    What do I think?
    1) If the SNP/other pro-Independence parties don't take some seats from Labour in 2015, I'll eat my laptop.
    2) If - and this is looking very likely - the Tories/Labour screw up the implementation of Devo Max, then that will benefit the Nationalists in the long run, as come the next referendum, it'll be difficult to have last-minute promises about more powers for Scotland within the UK taken seriously.
    3) If Westminster does give Scotland Devo Max, then it could give the oppertunity for the SNP to prove that Scotland is capable of standing on it's own two feet, which could aid another Independence bid in the future.

    Either way, Scottish Nationalism isn't going to be killed "stone dead" quite as easily as some Unionists may like.

    NOTE - By "Unionist", I refer to all those who favours Scotland remaining in the UK. I'm not referring only to the "Unionist" community in the North.
    Good post. If you don't already do so, it might be quite informative to read the online discussion on the Glasgow Herald's site.
    A cursory read will quickly disabuse you of the notion (if that was your disposition) that this is over. Only just beginning, folks....lots of NO voters already stating that if Westminster attempts to row back on its "promises" then they'll be the first to hit the streets next opportunity. And even in the small hours of that Friday morning, Tories were going on the airwaves (when the clarity of the NO vote was revealing itself) regretting the panicky promises they made and trying to create a scenario where upon they could row back on it.
    Seen a senior Tory last week stating that it would take until 2017 before Scotland would get the powers they made, and then there's all the landscape blurring of the "West Lothian Question" and English votes only for English issues, etc.
    And you wonder why we call them Perfidious Albion..?

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    Basically, at some future point Scotland will believe itself to have been fk'd over by England, or the UK, and the first place they will look is independence. Otherwise Scotland will be treated with kid gloves and the English will become more unhappy with the situation.

    I think the least the UK must do is give England its own parliament, devo max all around, and reserved matters dealt with at Westminster - in the long run even this won't be enough though because there will still be a democratic deficit solely down to England's massive population compared to the rest.

    The SNP will probably make small gains at a Westminster election and do extremely well in a Scottish election. What they'll need at some point is opinion polls showing clear support for independence otherwise I don't see them pushing for a referendum.
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