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Thread: The Kosovan Domino.

  1. #1
    Gadjodilo
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    Default The Kosovan Domino.

    Just when you thought the Balkans was settling down to become a nice stable corner of Mittel-Europa, think again. It's bored with being boring and is starting to get interesting again. And as always with the Balkans, what happens there can have huge effects for the rest of Europe

    It will start in Kosovo - the 90% Albanian province which is due to declare independence any day now and will be recognised by the EU and the US. This will royally piss off the Serbs and their big brothers in Russia.

    It will have major ramifications for Bosnia. Decision making in Bosnia is totally paralysed because agreement is needed between all the ethnic groups and the Serbs drag their heels. Recent proposals by Slovak diplomat Miroslav Lajcak to break the logjam has led to the worst political turmoil in Bosnia since the end of the 1992-95 war. And the Bosnian Serbs are saying they want out.

    It's hard to argue with their logic. If it's okay for the Kosovar Albanians to secede, why can't the Republika Bosna Srpska?

    However, this is where those bloody-minded Russians clamber up on stage. They are talking about taking this logic one step further. If the Kosovars jump ship from the Good Ship (ahem!) Serbia, the Russians are threatening to recognise their little statelets that they've carved out here and there:
    - Trans-Dniestr Republic from Moldova
    - Abkhazia from Georgia
    - South Ossetia (also from Georgia)

    ...... not to mention Nagorno Karabakh which the Armenians seized from Azerbaijan in the early 90s.

    Watch this space.

  2. #2
    Politics.ie Member seabhcan's Avatar
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    The Russians were the first to recognise a certain breakaway "statelet" not a million miles from here in 1918. I don't see anything wrong with them recognising Abkhazia or Ossetia.

    The US and UK were largely behind the breakup of Yugoslavia. They want Kosovo 'independent' and occupied as a foothold in the region. The US has 10 times more troups in peaceful Kosovo, per head of local population, than they have in Iraq.

    There's no oil in Kosovo. What else do they want?

  3. #3
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    Good post. One of the most fascinating geopolitical issues. If the Kossovan Albanians can secede, where does it stop?

    The Californian Mexicans? The Bradford Pakistanis?

    The Limerick Poles?

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    Serbs should be let take Republica Srbska as a trade off over Kosovo - they would accept that..

    Croats should be Herzgovina - especially after last night!!

  5. #5
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    Bosnia is not viable. The problem is what to do with the Bosnians when the ethnic Serbs and Albanians secede.
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    Politics.ie Member seabhcan's Avatar
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    There are 100k Serbs in Kosovo too. What happens to them?

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    Macedonia could also become interesting with a 25% "ethnic Albanian" population. It seems to me that a "greater Albania" is on the horizon.

  8. #8
    Gadjodilo
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    Quote Originally Posted by seabhcan
    The Russians were the first to recognise a certain breakaway "statelet" not a million miles from here in 1918. I don't see anything wrong with them recognising Abkhazia or Ossetia.

    The US and UK were largely behind the breakup of Yugoslavia. They want Kosovo 'independent' and occupied as a foothold in the region. The US has 10 times more troups in peaceful Kosovo, per head of local population, than they have in Iraq.

    There's no oil in Kosovo. What else do they want?
    1. The Russians don't give a flying f**k about the Abkhazians or the Ossetians. It's all about undermining Georgia which DARED to break free of Russian domination.
    2. If the Russians are so concerned about the rights of minorities, why did they commit quasi-genocide in suppressing the independence fight of the Chechens.
    3. Yeah, same old cliché. Blame the Brits and the Yanks. It fact, it was Slobodan Milosevic who broke up Yugoslavia. He knew the way the wind was blowing and went overnight from being a communist to being a Serb nationalist. He stirred up the Serb minority in Kosovo in 1987 and used their "plight" to crack down on Albanians. That was what started the movements in Croatia and Slovenia for independence.

  9. #9
    Gadjodilo
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gussie
    Good post. One of the most fascinating geopolitical issues. If the Kossovan Albanians can secede, where does it stop?

    The Californian Mexicans? The Bradford Pakistanis?

    The Limerick Poles?
    They're 90% of the population, FFS! If that's not a mandate, what is?

  10. #10
    Gadjodilo
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    Quote Originally Posted by seabhcan
    There are 100k Serbs in Kosovo too. What happens to them?
    They could stay. They'd be treated better than the Serbs treated the Albanians.

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