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Thread: Unemployment rate down - non-national population up 60,000

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    Default Unemployment rate down - non-national population up 60,000

    Contrary to all the hype here and in the media, Ireland's unemployment rate is falling, both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter. In the third quarter of 2007, the seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate fell to 4.4%, compared with 4.5% in the second quarter of 2007 and also 4.5% in the third quarter of 2006. The figures are given in today's CSO publication of the Quarterly National Household Survey, which is the official measure of employment and unemployment in Ireland.

    http://www.cso.ie/releasespublications/ ... t/qnhs.pdf

    The figures show that in the year to the third quarter of 2007, the seasonally-adjusted number in employment increased by 67,100, of which 4,900 were in construction and 62,200 were in non-construction. That's the net increase, after all those losing jobs are included. This is an increase of 3.3% in the year and compares with an increase of 1.4% in employment in the EU as a whole for the same period, for which figures were also published today. In the year to the third quarter of 2006, the seasonally-adjusted number in employment increased by 82,800, of which 25,100 were in construction and 57,700 were in non-construction. So, even though there has been a sharp downturn in construction, total employment is still increasing at a very rapid rate, aided by an actual acceleration in employment growth outside of construction compared with the previous year.

    CSO figures in today's Quarterly National Household Survey also show that the non-national population aged 15+ in Ireland increased by 61,300 in the year to the third quarter of 2007. Virtually all of these 61,300 were from eastern Europe. So all those stories here and in the media about eastern Europeans now leaving Ireland in droves are also without foundation. The total population (Irish + non-national) aged 15+ increased by 84,900 in the year to the third quarter of 2007. Today's CSO publication only gives population estimates for those aged 15+. But, I calculate from these that the total population must have increased by about 100,000 in the year to the third quarter of 2007 and in that quarter the total population was about 4,360,000.

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    but i thought we were having a recession....
    The political establishment lacks both vision and courage.

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    Quote Originally Posted by irishpeoplearewhingers
    but i thought we were having a recession....
    You'd think, but the boom goes on, contrary to what some foolish people think.
    Private profit for public gain!

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ard-Taoiseach
    Quote Originally Posted by irishpeoplearewhingers
    but i thought we were having a recession....
    You'd think, but the boom goes on, contrary to what some foolish people think.
    Long may it last Ard T and FL. My concern is that the future is bleak but that is just my view and I'll prepare for it as best I can, which brings me to another concern. When the economy is talked up by the powers that be in order to hold on to the final straws and people believe them, the good time Charlie train chuggs on leaving people deeper, and deeper in debt with no planning for the hard times. Then, when the hard times do actually hit, they are compounded because people cant keep up even essential payments like mortgages. That occurance then further compounds the hard times and then we all get hit bad. We are the most indebted country in the world because people believe what you two guys have been flouting the whole time and they dont see the ends to the boom. Perhaps you are right and that end is not coming anytime soon, but by the time it comes, and it will come, people will be further and further indebted. Then all boats will sink.

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    So the workforce increased by 3.3%, which must be similar to the growth figure for the period.

    All of which implies that we're not working smarter, just increasing the Labour force. Not ideal really.
    Economic Left/Right: -2.88 (down 3.63 since the financial crash)
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    Quote Originally Posted by locke
    So the workforce increased by 3.3%, which must be similar to the growth figure for the period.

    All of which implies that we're not working smarter, just increasing the Labour force. Not ideal really.
    You're wrong there. The work-force increased 3.8% in the first quarter, the economy grew 8.1%. In the second quarter, the work-force expanded by 3.9%, while the economy grew 5.4%.

    We're working way smarter and harder this year.
    Private profit for public gain!

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    Quote Originally Posted by Watcher
    Quote Originally Posted by Ard-Taoiseach
    Quote Originally Posted by irishpeoplearewhingers
    but i thought we were having a recession....
    You'd think, but the boom goes on, contrary to what some foolish people think.
    Long may it last Ard T and FL. My concern is that the future is bleak but that is just my view and I'll prepare for it as best I can, which brings me to another concern. When the economy is talked up by the powers that be in order to hold on to the final straws and people believe them, the good time Charlie train chuggs on leaving people deeper, and deeper in debt with no planning for the hard times. Then, when the hard times do actually hit, they are compounded because people cant keep up even essential payments like mortgages. That occurance then further compounds the hard times and then we all get hit bad. We are the most indebted country in the world because people believe what you two guys have been flouting the whole time and they dont see the ends to the boom. Perhaps you are right and that end is not coming anytime soon, but by the time it comes, and it will come, people will be further and further indebted. Then all boats will sink.
    That's quite enough of that old guff pal, next you'll be telling us we will have a domestic stock market colapse and a property slump.
    Oh sorry, we're there.

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    I went looking for YTD growth figures and found the following

    http://www.cso.ie/statistics/keyecindireland.htm

    Why are the GNP and GDP figures so out of date?

    I thought for a minute they were giving us negative growth for the previous three months.
    Economic Left/Right: -2.88 (down 3.63 since the financial crash)
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    Non-Irish nationals are tentatively estimated to have accounted for 48,400 or 71.6% of the annual increase in the numbers in employment. The majority of these Non-Irish nationals came from the 12 new EU Accession states (+40,100


    Or so we are to believe!

    Compare these figures with the PPS figures issued to NAS members in the same time period:

    http://www.welfare.ie/topics/ppsn/ppsstat.html#euas07

    http://www.welfare.ie/topics/ppsn/ppsstat.html#euten06

    Does anyone really believe that out of the huge numbers of immigrants from the NAS who arrived here and went to the trouble to get a PPS number that a mere 40,000 were actually able to secure employment?

    These figures are just not credible!

    The CSO is in urgent need of Reform with a new management structure and a modus operandi in place as their credibility as a reliable source of statistical information continues to decline.

    Time to stop the rot - after all we pay their wages! :x

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    Maybe you'd run the CSO - the Catalpa Statistics Office? All the PPS numbers show is the gross number of PPS numbers issued. It doesn't take into account people who've since left the state as has been explained to you many, many times. Even people who've had PPS numbers issued to them in July might have left by now - temporary and seasonal migration is a major feature of migration patterns around the EU at present.
    'It would actually give me the greatest of pleasure watching non-compliant taxpayers going to jail. That's the kind of person I am.' Bertie Ahern, 1993.

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