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Thread: If Election 2011 had been first-past-the post

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    Default If Election 2011 had been first-past-the post

    In "The Week In Politics"'s report on the Constitutional Convention's meeting on electoral reform, Adrian Kavanagh provided analysis on how the 2011 election result would have looked if held under FPTP, and the differences are quite staggering:

    Fine Gael 114 (36% of vote/69% of seats)
    Labour 32 (19/19)
    Independents & Others 11 (18/6)
    Sinn Féin 6 (10/4)
    Fianna Fáil 3 (17/2)

    So, Fine Gael would likely have secured 10-15 years of single-party government, Labour would have secured a left-right divide as leaders of the opposition, and the two republican parties would have been looking at a merger to remain numerically relevant.
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    Politics.ie Member paulp's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by FloatingVoterTralee View Post
    In "The Week In Politics"'s report on the Constitutional Convention's meeting on electoral reform, Adrian Kavanagh provided analysis on how the 2011 election result would have looked if held under FPTP, and the differences are quite staggering:

    Fine Gael 114 (36% of vote/69% of seats)
    Labour 32 (19/19)
    Independents & Others 11 (18/6)
    Sinn Féin 6 (10/4)
    Fianna Fáil 3 (17/2)

    So, Fine Gael would likely have secured 10-15 years of single-party government, Labour would have secured a left-right divide as leaders of the opposition, and the two republican parties would have been looking at a merger to remain numerically relevant.
    FG would have been dominant, but you sees bigger swings between elections, so I think it's a leap to say 10-15 years of government.

    That is the main argument for the system, that you are more likely to have a stronger single party government.
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    A lot of people would have voted in an entirely different manner; an utterly pointless comparison, in my opinion.
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    Politics.ie Member statsman's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by paulp View Post
    FG would have been dominant, but you sees bigger swings between elections, so I think it's a leap to say 10-15 years of government.

    That is the main argument for the system, that you are more likely to have a stronger single party government.

    We'd be living in a different country and the circumstances leading up to that GE might well have been entirely different.
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    Politics.ie Member Sync's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by statsman View Post
    We'd be living in a different country and the circumstances leading up to that GE might well have been entirely different.
    Yup. There would be far fewer parties for instance. FPP and PR create utterly different environments, there's no real use copying one countries format and putting it over another's. Looking at the 2011 results for instance you see around 7% shared out amongst assorted left groups. That wouldn't happen in an FPP country, they would just be subsumed into one larger Leftist party (Labour in this case)
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    Quote Originally Posted by FloatingVoterTralee View Post
    In "The Week In Politics"'s report on the Constitutional Convention's meeting on electoral reform, Adrian Kavanagh provided analysis on how the 2011 election result would have looked if held under FPTP, and the differences are quite staggering:

    Fine Gael 114 (36% of vote/69% of seats)
    Labour 32 (19/19)
    Independents & Others 11 (18/6)
    Sinn Féin 6 (10/4)
    Fianna Fáil 3 (17/2)

    So, Fine Gael would likely have secured 10-15 years of single-party government, Labour would have secured a left-right divide as leaders of the opposition, and the two republican parties would have been looking at a merger to remain numerically relevant.
    No that's totally untrue, given the collapse in FG in the polls due to their ineptitude in government, they would be lucky to return one third of that 114 TDS. FF who are back to being the most popular party in the country would be the main beneficiaries and would probably be close to forming single party government.

    That's the thing with FPTP, you get enormous swings against unpopular governments.
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    Politics.ie Member statsman's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sync View Post
    Yup. There would be far fewer parties for instance. FPP and PR create utterly different environments, there's no real use copying one countries format and putting it over another's. Looking at the 2011 results for instance you see around 7% shared out amongst assorted left groups. That wouldn't happen in an FPP country, they would just be subsumed into one larger Leftist party (Labour in this case)
    Which is why UKIP have one chance to take seats from the Tories; fail in the next GE and they'll be written off and their voters will all drift home. It's possible to imagine England as a two-party country in 10 years time, with Scotland and Wales getting a bit more diversity because of their nationalist parties.
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    Politics.ie Member Aristodemus's Avatar
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    Anyone advocating the British system of elections is seriously deluded

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    Quote Originally Posted by FloatingVoterTralee View Post
    In "The Week In Politics"'s report on the Constitutional Convention's meeting on electoral reform, Adrian Kavanagh provided analysis on how the 2011 election result would have looked if held under FPTP, and the differences are quite staggering:

    Fine Gael 114 (36% of vote/69% of seats)
    Labour 32 (19/19)
    Independents & Others 11 (18/6)
    Sinn Féin 6 (10/4)
    Fianna Fáil 3 (17/2)

    So, Fine Gael would likely have secured 10-15 years of single-party government, Labour would have secured a left-right divide as leaders of the opposition, and the two republican parties would have been looking at a merger to remain numerically relevant.
    Under FPTP, parties typically have bastions of strength which are virtually unassailable. In England, for instance, Lib Dem support is heavily concentrated in the SW of England and even though they have dropped support in opinion polls they will almost certainly retain those seats in the next election there

    As such, I'd suspect the above analysis is flawed - it isn't very credible to believe that FF would only get 3 seats in Connacht whatever about anywhere else.

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    Politics.ie Member statsman's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Passer-by View Post
    Under FPTP, parties typically have bastions of strength which are virtually unassailable. In England, for instance, Lib Dem support is heavily concentrated in the SW of England and even though they have dropped support in opinion polls they will almost certainly retain those seats in the next election there

    As such, I'd suspect the above analysis is flawed - it isn't very credible to believe that FF would only get 3 seats in Connacht whatever about anywhere else.
    At its simplest the question is 'how many constituencies did FF top the poll in?' Of course, in a FPTP system the constituency boundaries would not be the same as they are now.
    Put a thief among honest men and they will eventually relieve him of his watch. Flann O'Brien

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