There appear to be two prevailing views on the Irish economy:
1) we're over the worse/turned a corner/seen green shoots;
2) we've reached the limits of "austerity".
Where are we?
Employment rising marginally (unemployment stabilizing)
A 7.6% deficit after 5 years of "austere" budgets
A debt to GDP ratio heading towards 120%
A public sector responding to a unilateral breaking of the croke park 2010-14 agreement.
Much of the McCarthy report has not been implemented
What are the dangers?
The graduates/skilled labour who emigrate don't come back
A war impacts on global trade
A protracted public sector strike
Cuts to headline social welfare rates affect sme's, poverty levels and social strife
Personal insolvency leads to default on mortgages and the "people have a right to live in their own homes" argument prevails and an "unnaturally low" repossession rate keeps property prices artificially high fooling some into thinking that the busy has bottomed out