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Thread: UKIP get 26% Could Ganley / McDowell decimate FG?

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    Politics.ie Member Big Brother's Avatar
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    Default UKIP get 26% Could DDI decimate FG?

    Early success for UKIP as new

    The circumstances are different.
    So are the electoral systems.

    But UKIPs startling performance in local elections today - around 26% of vote - raises major issues for Fine Gael

    Fine Gael have embraced Labour's social agenda on abortion same sex marriage closing Vatican embassy ending communion money...and so on.... as the "price" for Labour backing cuts.

    Now whether FG voters themselves support cuts that occurred is debatable. Arguably FGers would like to see far more quangos closed, semi states privatised and pay & pensions cut than see welfare for the needy cut

    But FG's more "Neo-liberal" wing (who favour cutting the weakest as Neolibs usually do) seem to have forged an alliance with Labour's "secular-liberal" wing (who favour aborting the weakest) to forge an agenda that targets children - born and unborn - and pregnant women (who lose maternity allowance) and families in general (property tax).

    The abortion legislation is not in itself a vote changer - people rarely vote on abortion alone. But it could constitute the "tipping point" which turns FG's more Christian democratic voters against it.

    Those Christian democratic voters would be more protective of the poor (they would come from the Declan Costello "Just society" wing of the party) than the urban NeoLibs who are more "Devil take the hindmost"). They would also be more protective of the unborn.

    And while they are broadly pro European the mood in Ireland towards Europe is shifting thanks to the bail out and more lately the perception that Europe is forcing us to adopt liberal abortion laws.

    The immigration issue isn't as strong in IReland (thank God we don't have the tolerance for racism they have in Britain and France) but as thousands continue to come in and thousands of Irish continue to leave you never know when it could just take off.

    UKIPs rise was sparked by Cameron embracing same sex marriage.

    Although a different issue abortion has the same potency for many FG voters.

    Ganley and McDowell have been relatively silent for some time.

    But with the start of local and Euro election campaigns now less than a year away the abortion issue won't go away.

    And the property tax - another bugbear of FG voters of all shades of opinion - is going to start biting.

    So will next December's budget.

    So my question is: Could a Euro sceptic party of the right emerge to take a significant chunk of FG voters - and perhaps some FF voters - away from them in next year's locals and Euros?

    And if it does, could it form the basis for something in the 2016 general election?

    Where Britain goes, Ireland usually follows.....
    Last edited by Big Brother; 4th May 2013 at 05:53 PM. Reason: More likely that DDI will pose.challenge to FG

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    Quote Originally Posted by Big Brother View Post
    Early success for UKIP as new

    The circumstances are different.
    So are the electoral systems.

    But UKIPs startling performance in local elections today - around 26% of vote - raises major issues for Fine Gael

    Fine Gael have embraced Labour's social agenda on abortion same sex marriage closing Vatican embassy ending communion money...and so on.... as the "price" for Labour backing cuts.

    Now whether FG voters themselves support cuts that occurred is debatable. Arguably FGers would like to see far more quangos closed, semi states privatised and pay & pensions cut than see welfare for the needy cut

    But FG's more "Neo-liberal" wing (who favour cutting the weakest as Neolibs usually do) seem to have forged an alliance with Labour's "secular-liberal" wing (who favour aborting the weakest) to forge an agenda that targets children - born and unborn - and pregnant women (who lose maternity allowance) and families in general (property tax).

    The abortion legislation is not in itself a vote changer - people rarely vote on abortion alone. But it could constitute the "tipping point" which turns FG's more Christian democratic voters against it.

    Those Christian democratic voters would be more protective of the poor (they would come from the Declan Costello "Just society" wing of the party) than the urban NeoLibs who are more "Devil take the hindmost"). They would also be more protective of the unborn.

    And while they are broadly pro European the mood in Ireland towards Europe is shifting thanks to the bail out and more lately the perception that Europe is forcing us to adopt liberal abortion laws.

    The immigration issue isn't as strong in IReland (thank God we don't have the tolerance for racism they have in Britain and France) but as thousands continue to come in and thousands of Irish continue to leave you never know when it could just take off.

    UKIPs rise was sparked by Cameron embracing same sex marriage.

    Although a different issue abortion has the same potency for many FG voters.

    Ganley and McDowell have been relatively silent for some time.

    But with the start of local and Euro election campaigns now less than a year away the abortion issue won't go away.

    And the property tax - another bugbear of FG voters of all shades of opinion - is going to start biting.

    So will next December's budget.

    So my question is: Could a Euro sceptic party of the right emerge to take a significant chunk of FG voters - and perhaps some FF voters - away from them in next year's locals and Euros?

    And if it does, could it form the basis for something in the 2016 general election?

    Where Britain goes, Ireland usually follows.....
    You do realise that Ukip are socially and economically libertarian on most issues Mark Thompson: Interview with Nigel Farage of UKIP on drugs policy

    what sort of moron would support communion payments and the bloated unsustainable welfare state in general?
    Let catholics subsisidise their own ceremonies, and if they choose to have large families pay for them themselves.
    Last edited by pragmaticapproach; 3rd May 2013 at 05:09 PM.

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    Politics.ie Member wombat's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Big Brother View Post
    Ganley and McDowell have been relatively silent for some time.
    Apart from having 2 of the biggest egos in the country, they have nothing in common. If they formed a party, as Behan once said, the first item for discussion would be a split. Ganley is socially conservative, McDowell is liberal.

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    Deco the EU Federalist, and McDowell?

    Hahahahaaaa

    There's 30% of the vote up for the grabs in Ireland,

    And if ye wanna grab it, you will have to be firmly anti-EU,

    VOTE RIBEYE

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    Politics.ie Member Bren Boru's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by wombat View Post
    Apart from having 2 of the biggest egos in the country, they have nothing in common. If they formed a party, as Behan once said, the first item for discussion would be a split. Ganley is socially conservative, McDowell is liberal.
    Very true. Plus ca change, plus c'est meme chose.

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    Dylan2010
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    Which McDowell are we talking about Roddy? he was good in Planet of the Apes, not sure I'd vote for him.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Big Brother View Post
    Early success for UKIP as new

    The circumstances are different.
    So are the electoral systems.

    But UKIPs startling performance in local elections today - around 26% of vote - raises major issues for Fine Gael

    Fine Gael have embraced Labour's social agenda on abortion same sex marriage closing Vatican embassy ending communion money...and so on.... as the "price" for Labour backing cuts.

    Now whether FG voters themselves support cuts that occurred is debatable. Arguably FGers would like to see far more quangos closed, semi states privatised and pay & pensions cut than see welfare for the needy cut

    But FG's more "Neo-liberal" wing (who favour cutting the weakest as Neolibs usually do) seem to have forged an alliance with Labour's "secular-liberal" wing (who favour aborting the weakest) to forge an agenda that targets children - born and unborn - and pregnant women (who lose maternity allowance) and families in general (property tax).

    The abortion legislation is not in itself a vote changer - people rarely vote on abortion alone. But it could constitute the "tipping point" which turns FG's more Christian democratic voters against it.

    Those Christian democratic voters would be more protective of the poor (they would come from the Declan Costello "Just society" wing of the party) than the urban NeoLibs who are more "Devil take the hindmost"). They would also be more protective of the unborn.

    And while they are broadly pro European the mood in Ireland towards Europe is shifting thanks to the bail out and more lately the perception that Europe is forcing us to adopt liberal abortion laws.

    The immigration issue isn't as strong in IReland (thank God we don't have the tolerance for racism they have in Britain and France) but as thousands continue to come in and thousands of Irish continue to leave you never know when it could just take off.

    UKIPs rise was sparked by Cameron embracing same sex marriage.

    Although a different issue abortion has the same potency for many FG voters.

    Ganley and McDowell have been relatively silent for some time.

    But with the start of local and Euro election campaigns now less than a year away the abortion issue won't go away.

    And the property tax - another bugbear of FG voters of all shades of opinion - is going to start biting.

    So will next December's budget.

    So my question is: Could a Euro sceptic party of the right emerge to take a significant chunk of FG voters - and perhaps some FF voters - away from them in next year's locals and Euros?

    And if it does, could it form the basis for something in the 2016 general election?

    Where Britain goes, Ireland usually follows.....
    Interesting ... but UKIP is a xenaphobic anti foreigner party bodrdering on being racist with immigration and euroscepticism being the original base but also attracting the disaffected from both the Tories and Labour ...

    Other than cutting taxes to be funded by pie in the sky .. it has no economic policy that cannot be solved by withdrawl from the EU ... leave the EU and deficit disappears overnight ... oh and they want to increase military expenditure by 50% to fund wars against any and all threats ... probably the French and Germans ....

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    Politics.ie Member Ulster-Lad's Avatar
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    Anti-Immigration & Euroskepticism has served them well.
    ‘The Great only appear great because we are on our knees: Let Us Rise!’ “ (James Larkin)

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    Politics.ie Member mr. jings's Avatar
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    Ganley, McDowell, communion money, gay marriage, abortion and UKIP? I think I need to lie down.
    Last edited by mr. jings; 3rd May 2013 at 05:41 PM.

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    Politics.ie Member Big Brother's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ribeye View Post
    Deco the EU Federalist, and McDowell?

    Hahahahaaaa

    There's 30% of the vote up for the grabs in Ireland,

    And if ye wanna grab it, you will have to be firmly anti-EU,

    VOTE RIBEYE
    Ha

    Normally I'd vote for you Ribeye.

    But I think anger has gone beyond worrying about purity of Ganley / McDowell's views.

    That 30% will now vote for anything vaguely resembling a right wing protest vote.

    Amazing thing is that Fine Gael are so stuck in the Latte Liberal bubble that they actually think the media represent the people.

    They've just told their voters to get stuffed.

    And they think an approving editorial from the Irish Times will rescue them

    Unbeliveable. Just unbelievable.

    The more the usual meeja pundits praise FG, the more screwed they are

    And as for Fianna Fail, Noel Whelan - whom I normally have much time for - will destroy them if he urges them to be "mature" (favourite word for condescending liberals) and back govt on this.

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