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Thread: Government's Economic Forecasts to 2016 - Spring, 2013

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    Politics.ie Member H.R. Haldeman's Avatar
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    Default Government's Economic Forecasts to 2016 - Spring, 2013

    Something published from the DoF today called: "The Irish Stability Programme April 2013 Update, Incorporating the Department of Finance’s Spring Forecasts."

    PDF here: http://www.finance.gov.ie/documents/...13/spu2013.pdf

    Some headlines (partly as reported in RTE link below, and partly me copying from the PDF, with apologies for any transcribing errors):

    Deficit
    2013: 7.4%
    2014: 4.3%
    2015: 2.2%
    2016: 1.7%

    Budgets (Tax rises/Spending Cuts)
    2014: €3.1b
    2015: €2.0b
    2016: Neutral

    Economic Growth/GDP
    2012: 0.9%
    2013: 1.3% (down from forecast of 1.5% in Budget 2013)
    2014: 2.4%
    2015: 2.8%
    2016: 2.7%

    External Growth Assumptions
    See page 11. EU negative till 1.4% in 2014. World growth ex EU 4.0% in 2013. US and UK 1.9% and 0.9% for 2013.

    GNP
    2012: 3.4%
    2013: 0.8%
    2014: 1.8%
    2015: 2.0%
    2016: 2.0%

    Unemployment
    2012: 14.7%
    2013: 14.0%
    2014: 13.3%
    2015: 12.8%
    2016: 12.3%

    General Government Debt
    At end 2012: "Ireland’s general government debt stood at an estimated €192 billion or 118 per cent of GDP. The debt ratio is expected to peak this year at 123% of GDP." (Page 24 , with a note on the PN on page 20).
    Breakdown:
    - Government bonds: €87.9b
    - State Savings: €16.2b
    - Promissory Note: €25.3b
    - Programme Assistance: €56.7b
    - Other: €6.4b

    RTE Report: Government forecasts confirm further Budget cuts - RTÉ News

    ....

    Couple of comments:

    > The tumbling deficit number I find very hard to believe.
    > Ditto, the end to nasty budgets by the one after next seems optimistic.
    > Ireland is predicted to grow almost twice as fast as the rest of the EU in 2014. Almost matching the US, and killing the Brits (Page 11). Hmmmmm.
    > The very modest improvement in unemployment is scary as hell.
    > I can never remember the subtleties of GNP v. GDP, but the relative numbers look a bit odd to me.
    > Strikes me the personal debt/mortgage crisis is going to need funds not accounted for here.

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    Politics.ie Member carlovian's Avatar
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    Did they give the lotto numbers for 5 years time as well ?

    More chance of being right.
    Last edited by carlovian; 30th April 2013 at 10:17 PM.
    I believe that children are the future

    Unless we stop them now.

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    Politics.ie Member emulator's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by H.R. Haldeman View Post
    Something published from the DoF today called: "The Irish Stability Programme April 2013 Update, Incorporating the Department of Finance’s Spring Forecasts."

    PDF here: http://www.finance.gov.ie/documents/...13/spu2013.pdf

    Some headlines (partly as reported in RTE link below, and partly me copying from the PDF, with apologies for any transcribing errors):

    Deficit
    2013: 7.4%
    2014: 4.3%
    2015: 2.2%
    2016: 1.7%

    Budgets (Tax rises/Spending Cuts)
    2014: €3.1b
    2015: €2.0b
    2016: Neutral

    Economic Growth/GDP
    2012: 0.9%
    2013: 1.3% (down from forecast of 1.5% in Budget 2013)
    2014: 2.4% (down from forecast of 2.4% in Budget 2014)
    2015: 2.8% (down from forecast of 2.8% in Budget 2015)
    2016: 2.7% (down from forecast of 2.7% in Budget 2016)

    External Growth Assumptions
    See page 11. EU negative till 1.4% in 2014. World growth ex EU 4.0% in 2013. US and UK 1.9% and 0.9% for 2013.

    GNP
    2012: 3.4%
    2013: 0.8%
    2014: 1.8%
    2015: 2.0%
    2016: 2.0%

    Unemployment
    2012: 14.7%
    2013: 14.0%
    2014: 13.3%
    2015: 12.8%
    2016: 12.3%

    General Government Debt
    At end 2012: "Ireland’s general government debt stood at an estimated €192 billion or 118 per cent of GDP. The debt ratio is expected to peak this year at 123% of GDP." (Page 24 , with a note on the PN on page 20).
    Breakdown:
    - Government bonds: €87.9b
    - State Savings: €16.2b
    - Promissory Note: €25.3b
    - Programme Assistance: €56.7b
    - Other: €6.4b

    RTE Report: Government forecasts confirm further Budget cuts - RTÉ News

    ....

    Couple of comments:

    > The tumbling deficit number I find very hard to believe.
    > Ditto, the end to nasty budgets by the one after next seems optimistic.
    > Ireland is predicted to grow almost twice as fast as the rest of the EU in 2014. Almost matching the US, and killing the Brits (Page 11). Hmmmmm.
    > The very modest improvement in unemployment is scary as hell.
    > I can never remember the subtleties of GNP v. GDP, but the relative numbers look a bit odd to me.
    > Strikes me the personal debt/mortgage crisis is going to need funds not accounted for here.
    I've added a bit to the figures there....

    Seriously though, these are the same people who have been forecasting incorrectly for many years. If someone keeps telling you lies for whatever reason, be it incompetence or wishful thinking, most people will eventually stop listening to them.

    They won't have to worry about a neutral budget in 2016 as they'll already be out by then....

  5. #5
    Politics.ie Member Analyzer's Avatar
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    The whole thing is rather Pravda-esque. Multi-year plans, and projections, and they already know the results.

    Does anybody that is not in the institutional state, or getting money from the institutional state, actually trust any of this nonsense ?
    Coveney's ambition is the be Ireland's next EU Commissar and Ireland will pay a price as he builds his CV to position himself sufficiently loyal to the nEU empire.

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    Politics.ie Member Analyzer's Avatar
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    The assumption about the banks/NAMA not needing any money is particularly loaded.

    It takes massive arrogance to be that confident.
    Coveney's ambition is the be Ireland's next EU Commissar and Ireland will pay a price as he builds his CV to position himself sufficiently loyal to the nEU empire.

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    Politics.ie Member Ren84's Avatar
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    Bloody hell, over 12% unemployment in 2016?!

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    Politics.ie Member stopdoingstuff's Avatar
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    Faoi mhóid bheith saor

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    Politics.ie Member dresden8's Avatar
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    No need for Croke Park 2 so. Our lords and masters have it sorted.

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    Politics.ie Member the_Observer's Avatar
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    Kid: Daddy, what's two + two?
    Government accountant Daddy : What do you want it to be son?

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