… at the slightly later time of 23:10 …
John Fitzgerald, ESRI Staff Details
Brigid Laffan, UCD UCD Dublin | Research | Politics & Int Relations
Fionnan Sheahan, Political Editor Irish Independent Irish Independent Columnists | Indo Newspaper Writers' Columns - Independent.ie
Michael Taft, Economist Unite https://twitter.com/notesonthefront
Ireland’s debt burden could climb to unsustainable levels if economic growth fails to materialise over the next few years and the banks need to be recapitalised, according to the IMF in its latest review of the economy.
As it stands, debt is forecast to peak at 122%, however, if the economy was to grow at an average rate of just 0.5% over the coming years, then debt would spiral to 134% by 2018. Bank of Ireland, AIB and Permanent TSB all face stress tests later this year. If the results find that the banks need fresh capital to withstand future losses, then that could add to government debt levels.
The IMF forecasts that Irish GDP will grow by 1.1% this year and 2.2% next year.“Were such a scenario to arise, Ireland’s ability to rely fully on the market to cover its large post-programme financing needs could easily become strained,” said the IMF.
Even though Ireland still has many challenges, the view was that it was the most successful of the bailout countries, said Mr Beaumont of the IMF. And that is because this country “has taken ownership” of the bailout programme by designing and implementing many of its reform packages.
Unemployment is forecast to remain at elevated levels for the foreseeable future, according to the IMF. Structural reforms remain on target. Initiatives such as water charges and selling state assets “are at an advanced stage” and remain on schedule.
The covered bonds issued by the Irish banks in recent months had seen an increase in yields since the controversial bailout of the Cypriot banking system. But there had been no other impact on the Irish financial sector.
So that’s the report in a nutshell. What does #VINB’s panel make of it all. Are we on the right road? Should be an interesting discussion tonight …
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Previous #VINB: http://www.politics.ie/forum/backsta...g-reviews.html
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