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Thread: Economic recovery in medium term ‘highly uncertain’ - IMF

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    Default Economic recovery in medium term ‘highly uncertain’ - IMF

    The IMF staff report is being reported in the Times. It seems the Government have been quite selective in what they've been saying regarding the IMF's viewpoint on our performance and likely future performance....

    No guarantee of bailout exit even with rigorous adherence to reform programme....

    Like the EU Commission staff report, disclosed by The Irish Times today, the IMF report also expresses concerns about the continuing problems with containing costs in the health sector; the problem of high numbers of long-term unemployed; and the increasing percentage of serious non-performing mortgages and other loans in the banking sector.

    But it is in the overall economic outlook that most concern is expressed. One of the main risks identified include the situation in the financial sector. It also refers to other major risks, including recovery being contingent on improvements in the UK and US as well as the euro area, and a fiscal drag on growth caused by fiscal consolidation.

    “These risks to growth have profound adverse implications for the robustness of debt sustainability and for the durability of market access.”
    Economic recovery in medium term

    However, growth is expected to remain sluggish in 2013 and the outlook for gradual recovery over the medium term remains highly uncertain. Recent indicators appear consistent with previous projections for growth on the order of 1 percent in 2013, as the decline in domestic demand is slowing and exports are expected to firm modestly. With public and private debts still high, and the financial system facing weak profitability and providing limited credit, there are significant hurdles to achieving the growth in domestic demand needed to drive a stronger recovery and job creation from 2014 onwards. Continued weak growth would likely erode confidence and potentially undermine market access as a recovery is critical to putting Ireland‘s debt on a downward path.
    http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/scr/2013/cr1393.pdf

    This is somewhat at odds with the information coming from the Government. Leaving the "bailout" at the end of this year is dependent on growth. How can we have growth or increase it as predicted, when we are increasing taxes and stealth taxes.... ?

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    It's quite simple most of us expect fairly low growth here for a good number of years. The problem with that is due to the high numbers of jobs lost, and the weak domestic economy, you can pretty much say even in 5 years we won't have made up what has been lost to date (not even close to it)

    FG can't have it both ways, big tax hikes and yes many stealth add on taxes take money out of the economy (no question) yet they expect decent growth to come from this. You don't have to be a genius to see how that isn't going to work. The export market is dependent on the EU to a large degree, and with many problems there and weak demand it's not likely to be enough to pull things up for Eire.

    FG will stick to their austerity plan (clearly failed and not working only doing more harm) People are calling this the lost "decade" because the cuts are too many, too fast, too many tax increases. We'd have actually had a decent recovery and growth if FG had the sense to take things more slowly and invest in the country instead of shutting it down.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Normal Lord View Post
    It's quite simple most of us expect fairly low growth here for a good number of years. The problem with that is due to the high numbers of jobs lost, and the weak domestic economy, you can pretty much say even in 5 years we won't have made up what has been lost to date (not even close to it)

    FG can't have it both ways, big tax hikes and yes many stealth add on taxes take money out of the economy (no question) yet they expect decent growth to come from this. You don't have to be a genius to see how that isn't going to work. The export market is dependent on the EU to a large degree, and with many problems there and weak demand it's not likely to be enough to pull things up for Eire.

    FG will stick to their austerity plan (clearly failed and not working only doing more harm) People are calling this the lost "decade" because the cuts are too many, too fast, too many tax increases. We'd have actually had a decent recovery and growth if FG had the sense to take things more slowly and invest in the country instead of shutting it down.
    Seems to be the case alright.

    I think I read somewhere the expected growth forecast for next year was 2.2%. That's more than double last year. So, essentially, our Government are telling everyone they are going to grow the economy over 100% while removing billions from people's pockets. Not to mention the effect of the repossessions of properties by banks and them either being left with them or having to sell them on realising their actual losses....

    It will be an interesting one to watch and, going by what the Government have been saying of late and what the IMF have just released.... I know who I'll be listening to.

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    Great Thread - was gonna start same thing myself but got too cumfy.

    More Doom Threads please

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    Kicking the can down the road should be classed as an economic indicator up their with GDP & GNP. Thankfully ExxonMobil have just started its test drilling programme today in the Dunquin licence area.

    In fairness the IMF and the Troika have been consistent in hammering the pay we give to some jobs (they call themselves professions but they are just jobs FFS) Banking is now seen for what it is, loan-sharking and high fees to move your own money around.

    The sooner we undergo an economic reality check in this Country the better,

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dublin 4 View Post
    Great Thread - was gonna start same thing myself but got too cumfy.

    More Doom Threads please
    Don't know about the doom aspect of it but a good dose of reality wouldn't go astray with this Government. We already had one with a policy of sticking their heads in the sand.... you would've thought this bunch would've learned from their mistakes ?

    Apparently not....

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    Politics.ie Member dresden8's Avatar
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    No mention of CP2 there.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dublin 4 View Post
    Great Thread - was gonna start same thing myself but got too cumfy.

    More Doom Threads please
    Don't worry. North Korea is about to kick off a nuclear war.

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    Hope not...

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    Quote Originally Posted by storybud1 View Post
    Kicking the can down the road should be classed as an economic indicator up their with GDP & GNP. Thankfully ExxonMobil have just started its test drilling programme today in the Dunquin licence area.

    In fairness the IMF and the Troika have been consistent in hammering the pay we give to some jobs (they call themselves professions but they are just jobs FFS) Banking is now seen for what it is, loan-sharking and high fees to move your own money around.

    The sooner we undergo an economic reality check in this Country the better,
    That's mentioned too in the IMF staff report linked in the OP. I would strongly suggest people read it to see exactly what the Government are telling the IMF. For example, they have told them the Unions have agreed CPA II.

    The way things are going we will indeed need a second "bailout"....

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