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Thread: Why has oil scarcity stopped being a topic of discussion?

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    Default Why has oil scarcity stopped being a topic of discussion?

    Egypt's in trouble at the moment, and they actually have oil. Egypt calls in favours as credit crunch hits key imports

    At the moment, we (as in western Europe) are in an unprecedented energy predicament. Many people refer to this predicament as "peak oil" as a sort of shorthand. Unfortunately, this is a little misleading. We know that global oil production will peak at some point, probably in a decade or so when Saudi Arabia's oil fields have depleted seriously. But the precise date of the peak is not all that economically relevant to us.

    What matters is the cost of that oil to the consumer. Cost has leapt, and this is because of our increasing reliance on "tight oil", oil trapped in difficult-to-extract geologocal formations. Since about 1900, the growth of the industrialised world has been dependent on non-tight oil. Oil that you get from a big trapped pool under the ground. Saudi oil is mostly non-tight. With non-tight oil you just inject a tube into the ground and oil just gushes out. That's a pretty cheap way to get oil. You can sell it at $30 a barrel at a profit.

    But tight oil, that needs a fracking process, or an oil-sands steaming process, needs much, much higher prices to be profitable.

    This is causing all hell to break loose in Europe and the USA. Both regions depend a lot on oil to transport their populace from home to workplace. In China, the populace cycles and oil is chiefly used for the purposes of manufacturing and delivering goods. As a result, the west is close to recession while China is growing gangbusters. Here's just one example, with Chinese businessmen buying more cars than Europeans. Bear in mind that for over 75% of Chinese people, the cheapest car on the market costs more than 3 years wages. Yet they're still buying that many:

    http://www.spiegel.de/international/...-a-875567.html

    This problem refuses to go away, but to judge by the posting online, you'd imagine the problems of expensive oil had evaporated.

    As you can see from the following link, they haven't:

    The Oil Drum | Our Energy Predicament in Charts
    Last edited by feargach; 31st March 2013 at 01:48 PM.
    When you see the words "Mises" or "Hayek" in someone's post, just ask yourself: do I really want to ban paper money and go back to gold?

    You have to pity the kind of people who buy into conspiracy theories. I find the following to be the saddest words on the internet: "Re: connection between Bilderberg puppet lady gaga and viral outbreak in ukraine "

  2. #2
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    Quote Originally Posted by feargach View Post
    Egypt's in trouble at the moment, and they actually have oil. Egypt calls in favours as credit crunch hits key imports

    At the moment, we (as in western Europe) are in an unprecedented energy predicament. Many people refer to this predicament as "peak oil" as a sort of shorthand. Unfortunately, this is a little misleading. We know that global oil production will peak at some point, probably in a decade or so when Saudi Arabia's oil fields have depleted seriously. But the precise date of the peak is not all that economically relevant to us.

    What matters is the cost of that oil to the consumer. Cost has leapt, and this is because of our increasing reliance on "tight oil", oil trapped in difficult-to-extract geologocal formations. Since about 1900, the growth of the industrialised world has been dependent on non-tight oil. Oil that you get from a big trapped pool under the ground. Saudi oil is mostly non-tight. With non-tight oil you just inject a tube into the ground and oil just gushes out. That's a pretty cheap way to get oil. You can sell it at $30 a barrel at a profit.

    But tight oil, that needs a fracking process, or an oil-sands steaming process, needs much, much higher prices to be profitable.

    This is causing all hell to break loose in Europe and the USA. Both regions depend a lot on oil to transport their populace from home to workplace. In China, the populace cycles and oil is chiefly used for the purposes of manufacturing and delivering goods. As a result, the west is close to recession while China is growing gangbusters.

    This problem refuses to go away, but to judge by the posting online, you'd imagine the problems of expensive oil had evaporated.

    As you can see from the following link, they haven't:

    The Oil Drum | Our Energy Predicament in Charts
    Interesting food for thought. I suppose other events have come to the fore but this issue is a real one and will hit all
    of humanity sooner or later.
    As a species we seem unable to think beyond the next year or two- I believe this has worsened in the materialist world.

    I despise the traditional left and right on this issue. The right go into outright denial whereas the left seem to just ignore it and think that by borrowing our creating new money all our problems will go away.


    Off the top of my head it is obvious that if we could slow population growth we might delay the onset and give ourselves (humanity, that is) more time to plan. However, few in power seem to have much interest.Try raising it with economists (most) and they just look as if you have taken awat their toys.

    Most people do not want to hear and from experience I have found it a very useful topic to bring up if you are tired and want some guests to go home. It clears them our rapidly!
    I expect a wave of the usual loons to descend any minute to derail this thread!

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    Politics.ie Member Analyzer's Avatar
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    Maybe because it is bad for consumer confidence, and interferes with people increasing their debt levels....

    The comatose suburban high octane consumer must not be awakened to what is really going on in the long term. Give him his remote control, his electronic circuses, and give his missus Dundrum shopping Centre. Give them loads of irrelevant information.

    And don't give them relevant information.

    Ireland is a heavy consumer of hydrocarbons. The lifestyle, the weekends away, the commute, etc... all have their effect. It is easier do nothing than reduce this any further.
    Last edited by Analyzer; 29th March 2013 at 11:37 PM.
    Coveney's ambition is the be Ireland's next EU Commissar and Ireland will pay a price as he builds his CV to position himself sufficiently loyal to the nEU empire.

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    Politics.ie Member truthisfree's Avatar
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    Because we are fed up with climate change groups which look like a front for oil companies yada yada yada.....so much BS to be ploughed through that I like a lot of my peers are fed up with the debate....the world will keep on turning on dirty oil, coal, gas whatever....and the people who make money from it will make money.....

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    Politics.ie Member benroe's Avatar
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    Its because the American leadership has persuaded their people that they will soon be self sufficient in natural gas(fracking), and that this gas will last them for forty years, the fact that they have to destroy their environment seems to be ok with them.
    Also the largest crude oil reserve outside of Saudi Arabia (tar sands in Canada) is being de-sludged again with no regard to the incredible environmental catastrophe that will cause.

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    Politics.ie Member seabhcan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by feargach View Post
    This is causing all hell to break loose in Europe and the USA. Both regions depend a lot on oil to transport their populace from home to workplace. In China, the populace cycles and oil is chiefly used for the purposes of manufacturing and delivering goods. As a result, the west is close to recession while China is growing gangbusters.
    Er... thats not the reason China is growing and Europe is in recession.

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    Quote Originally Posted by seabhcan View Post
    Er... thats not the reason China is growing and Europe is in recession.
    It certainly is one of the reasons.
    When you see the words "Mises" or "Hayek" in someone's post, just ask yourself: do I really want to ban paper money and go back to gold?

    You have to pity the kind of people who buy into conspiracy theories. I find the following to be the saddest words on the internet: "Re: connection between Bilderberg puppet lady gaga and viral outbreak in ukraine "

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    Why has oil scarcity stopped being a topic of discussion?


    Good question feargach, the answer of course is that is hasn't stopped being a topic of discussion.

    We have simply begun to discuss the many implications instead.

    Higher electricity, gas and petrol prices, increasing numbers of people falling into fuel poverty, tens of thousands of pre pay gas and electricity meters being installed throughout the country and throughout the socio-economic strata.

    The recent banking crisis in Cyprus managed to give us a perfect but temporary illustration of the problem of the peak oil dynamic, how you ask ?

    Wealthy people with lots of money in the bank trying to fund their normal everyday life under the restriction of zero electronic transactions and daily 100 ATM withdrawals is a perfect illustration of the peak oil dynamic, just as there are lots of hydrocarbons still left in the earth, the wealthy Cypriots had lots of money in the bank but the easy methods of access no longer existed.

    The actual production numbers for conventional crude oil clearly show that we reached a plateau in 2005, the vastly increased oil prices resultant from that event has enabled both higher production cost conventional along with the various forms of unconventional/synthetic oil to reach the market, but reduce the oil price and these new supplies will peter out, which will of course force higher prices, allowing more of the expensively produced oil ..........

    Should this thread survive for a few days someone will be along to point out that EXXON are presently drilling four exploratory wells off the south west coast, at a cost of $160 million, in an effort to prove out the elusive scent of oil in the Porcubine Basin uncovered decades ago.

    I promise to be gentle

    Meanwhile the only oil refinery in Ireland will probably close later this year because it cannot make a profit despite our high priced petrol and diesel.

    Happy Easter.
    Best regards, Pat.Twitter-energy economy news _ _ Each to their ability, together we progress.

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    Politics.ie Member wombat's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pat Gill View Post
    [B]
    Meanwhile the only oil refinery in Ireland will probably close later this year because it cannot make a profit despite our high priced petrol and diesel.

    Happy Easter.
    I hadn't heard that, I thought the various upgrades meant it was going to continue.
    The reason that oil scarcity is not a topic of discussion is because there are more immediate problems. Anyone working in industry is well aware of energy costs. At present they are taking the elephant eating approach to energy costs - one bite at a time.

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    The point about China (and India and Brazil) hoovering up most of the new oil from the new non-traditional sources (tar sands, fracking etc) stands.

    I assume Pat's familiar with Gail Tverberg's work on this, but for the rest of you, I hope you get into her analysis.

    Here's one of her key points:

    Globalization transfers consumption of limited oil supply from developed countries to developing countries.
    If world oil supply isn’t growing by very much, and demand is growing rapidly in developing countries, oil to meet this rising demand must come from somewhere. The way this transfer takes place is through the mechanism of high oil prices. High oil prices are particularly a problem for major oil importing countries, such as the United States, many European countries, and Japan. Because oil is used in growing food and for commuting, a rise in oil price tends to lead to a cutback in discretionary spending, recession, and lower oil use in these countries.
    You know the "cheap" Chinese-made clothes you're wearing? And the cheap Chinese computer you're reading this on (if you don't think it's cheap, have a look at what computers used to cost when they were manufactured in the West)?

    Have a look at your commuting costs. That extra money you have to pay every time you fill up, compared to 15 years ago? It's gone to China (and India, and Brazil, but frankly I'm more offended by the non-democratic country benefiting from your suffering).

    http://ourfiniteworld.com/2013/02/22...-huge-problem/
    When you see the words "Mises" or "Hayek" in someone's post, just ask yourself: do I really want to ban paper money and go back to gold?

    You have to pity the kind of people who buy into conspiracy theories. I find the following to be the saddest words on the internet: "Re: connection between Bilderberg puppet lady gaga and viral outbreak in ukraine "

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