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Thread: Census underestimated immigration - Conor Lenihan

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    Default Census underestimated immigration - Conor Lenihan

    Conor Lenihan, Minister for Integration, said at a conference on Saturday that he believed that the 2006 census seriously underestimated the number of foreign nationals (IT, page 4). He suggested that the number of Poles in the country is 160,000 to 200,000 rather than the 62,495 report in the census.

    If this is true, then who should take responsibility for the CSO's incompetence? Do we need another census?

    Had the census been correct, we might have retained our 13 seats in the European Parliament. As things stand, the Dáil constituencies will be incorrect as they are based on overall population.
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    Politics.ie Member Twin Towers's Avatar
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    Default Re: Census underestimated immigration - Conor Lenihan

    Quote Originally Posted by DeGaulle
    Conor Lenihan, Minister for Integration, said at a conference on Saturday that he believed that the 2006 census seriously underestimated the number of foreign nationals (IT, page 4). He suggested that the number of Poles in the country is 160,000 to 200,000 rather than the 62,495 report in the census.

    If this is true, then who should take responsibility for the CSO's incompetence? Do we need another census?

    Had the census been correct, we might have retained our 13 seats in the European Parliament. As things stand, the Dáil constituencies will be incorrect as they are based on overall population.
    We need another census.

    And if the present director of the CSO makes another pigs ear of it, I hear Dominos pizza are recruiting.

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    Politics.ie Member Catalpa's Avatar
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    Default Re: Census underestimated immigration - Conor Lenihan

    Quote Originally Posted by DeGaulle
    Conor Lenihan, Minister for Integration, said at a conference on Saturday that he believed that the 2006 census seriously underestimated the number of foreign nationals (IT, page 4). He suggested that the number of Poles in the country is 160,000 to 200,000 rather than the 62,495 report in the census.

    If this is true, then who should take responsibility for the CSO's incompetence? Do we need another census?

    Had the census been correct, we might have retained our 13 seats in the European Parliament. As things stand, the Dáil constituencies will be incorrect as they are based on overall population.
    Yet when Catalpa pointed out in advance of the Census that they would screw up and pointed it out again after they did he was called this that and the other....

    Reckon Conor checks out here occasionally - more accurate than the CSO anyway and cost free too!

    Hopefully the CSO will be relaunched under New Management ASAP and makes a serious attempt to do the job right next time round...

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    Default Re: Census underestimated immigration - Conor Lenihan

    Quote Originally Posted by Catalpa
    Quote Originally Posted by DeGaulle
    Conor Lenihan, Minister for Integration, said at a conference on Saturday that he believed that the 2006 census seriously underestimated the number of foreign nationals (IT, page 4). He suggested that the number of Poles in the country is 160,000 to 200,000 rather than the 62,495 report in the census.

    If this is true, then who should take responsibility for the CSO's incompetence? Do we need another census?

    Had the census been correct, we might have retained our 13 seats in the European Parliament. As things stand, the Dáil constituencies will be incorrect as they are based on overall population.
    Yet when Catalpa pointed out in advance of the Census that they would screw up and pointed it out again after they did he was called this that and the other....

    Reckon Conor checks out here occasionally - more accurate than the CSO anyway and cost free too!

    Hopefully the CSO will be relaunched under New Management ASAP and makes a serious attempt to do the job right next time round...
    This might explain why there were so many empty houses on census night as well.
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    Sigh. You guys really cannot grasp this, can you? The Census does not consider short-term immigration flows. It's a known fact, because the methodology was developed for mostly static populations. It's a measure of permanent or long-term residents, not transitory migrants. Nor, of course, would I consider Conor Lenihan a spectacularly reliable source - where is he getting his figures from?
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    Quote Originally Posted by ibis
    where is he getting his figures from?
    Iskanders.


    How about stastical sampling rather than a headcount, how would that stand up for accuracy in an irish context?
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    Quote Originally Posted by CookieMonster
    Quote Originally Posted by ibis
    where is he getting his figures from?
    Iskanders.


    How about stastical sampling rather than a headcount, how would that stand up for accuracy in an irish context?
    Oh, we couldn't use that....it would never satisfy people, because it's the same methodology the Lancet used in Iraq!
    Never let the best be the enemy of the good.

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    Politics.ie Member Catalpa's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ibis
    Sigh. You guys really cannot grasp this, can you? The Census does not consider short-term immigration flows. It's a known fact, because the methodology was developed for mostly static populations. It's a measure of permanent or long-term residents, not transitory migrants. Nor, of course, would I consider Conor Lenihan a spectacularly reliable source - where is he getting his figures from?
    The Census does not consider short-term immigration flows

    You are completely wrong!

    The CSO is charged with assesing all people resident in the State on Census night - incl the immigrants.

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    Default Re: Census underestimated immigration - Conor Lenihan

    Quote Originally Posted by DeGaulle
    Conor Lenihan, Minister for Integration, said at a conference on Saturday that he believed that the 2006 census seriously underestimated the number of foreign nationals (IT, page 4). He suggested that the number of Poles in the country is 160,000 to 200,000 rather than the 62,495 report in the census.

    If this is true, then who should take responsibility for the CSO's incompetence? Do we need another census?

    Had the census been correct, we might have retained our 13 seats in the European Parliament. As things stand, the Dáil constituencies will be incorrect as they are based on overall population.
    Its extremely unlikely to be out by that much. The Census figure is for April 2006, almost 18 months ago. Is Lenihan saying there were 160,000 to 200,000 Poles in Ireland at the time of the census or saying there is that number now? Even if the census figure is correct for April 2006, its within the realms of posibility that there is that number now, as they've been coming in large numbers since the census. However, its very unlikely there were 160,000 to 200,000 Poles here in April 2006. If there were, then that would mean about 300,000 Poles here now. Or 1 in 14 of the total population. I just don't think there are that many.

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    Politics.ie Member FutureTaoiseach's Avatar
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    I tend towards the view that the Census is more accurate with regard to the Poles than with regard to the Chinese and other non-EEA nationals on account of the largely-illegal status of the latter coming from non-Western countries and the consequent fear of deportation upon answering the "knock on the door".

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