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Thread: Global trends. What's the plan?

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    Default Global trends. What's the plan?

    Two think tanks,
    Espas.
    The current growth model is coming under increasingly critical scrutiny around the world. A central issue for the future is the extent to which the major economic powers of the past fifty years – the US, Europe and Japan – will be capable of reformulating their growth model in a sustainable direction, and building new competitive advantages.
    ESPAS Report

    And the US national intelligence council
    "We are at a critical juncture in human history, which could lead to widely contrasting futures. It is our contention that the future is not set in stone, but is malleable, the result of an interplay among megatrends, game-changers and, above all, human agency. Our effort is to encourage decisionmakers—whether in government or outside—to think and plan for the long term so that negative futures do not occur and positive ones have a better chance of unfolding"
    National Intelligence Council Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds | Public Intelligence
    Have produced reports forecasting the decline to the west and the rise of the developing nations in the east over the next 17 years. Both reports are in general agreement with other. There are many question that arise from these reports. However the shift in the balance of power is the focus of my question
    Can these trends be reversed and is it in world intrest to try to reverse them? If not can Ireland/the EU insulate itself from this transition and how?
    Last edited by Crack hoe; 5th March 2013 at 10:47 PM.
    #freerick

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    It's all about skinny jeans, this season.

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    Politics.ie Member Mountaintop's Avatar
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    As per the second link, I find it difficult to see any significant drawbacks to the 'megatrends' of individual empowerment and diffusion of power....but I feel, most significantly....skinny jeans are totz awesome...

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    Quote Originally Posted by Crack hoe View Post
    Two think tanks, espas
    ESPAS Report
    And the US national intelligence council
    National Intelligence Council Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds | Public Intelligence
    Have produced reports forecasting the decline to the west and the rise of the developing nations in the east over the next 17 years. Both reports are in general agreement with other. There are many question that arise from these reports. However the shift in the balance of power is the focus of my question
    Can these trends be reversed and is it in world intrest to try to reverse them? If not can Ireland/the EU insulate itself from this transition and how?
    Here's one important reason behind the decline [for 99%] in the West:


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    Politics.ie Member Telemachus's Avatar
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    What is the ‘new normal’ for housing? « ROGER MONTGOMERY

    Here we see the dependency ratio, ie the number of taxpayers per dependents(old people and the young). It is dropping across the west due to low fertillity rates over the past decades and rising life expectency.

    Its true that in many of the major cities continued immigration from the global south and eastern europe will offset some of these effects in certain western locales. But the demographic imbalance will lead to general impoverishment unless there is a massive increase in worker productivity.

    Places like London and even Dublin may see continued higher property prices due to continued large scale importation of immigrants. Most Western countries of course will have significant falls in population over the coming decades.

    There is a chance this will lead to the decline of social liberalism in many western countries as people realise that individualistic ideas of "do what you like" and "do not bother have a family as the state can provide", will not support you in old age when the pension/debt crisis wrecks the economies of western nations.
    ..the Irish nation can become other than white, by privileging the voices of the racialised and subverting state immigration but also integration policies. – Ronit Lentin

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    Quote Originally Posted by CarnivalOfAction View Post
    Here's one important reason behind the decline [for 99%] in the West:

    I would have thought that this inequity has always existed in western countries. And prehaps the inequity across the whole demographic of China/india would be greater than that of the US.
    #freerick

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    Quote Originally Posted by Telemachus View Post


    What is the ‘new normal’ for housing? « ROGER MONTGOMERY

    Here we see the dependency ratio, ie the number of taxpayers per dependents(old people and the young). It is dropping across the west due to low fertillity rates over the past decades and rising life expectency.

    Its true that in many of the major cities continued immigration from the global south and eastern europe will offset some of these effects in certain western locales. But the demographic imbalance will lead to general impoverishment unless there is a massive increase in worker productivity.

    Places like London and even Dublin may see continued higher property prices due to continued large scale importation of immigrants. Most Western countries of course will have significant falls in population over the coming decades.

    There is a chance this will lead to the decline of social liberalism in many western countries as people realise that individualistic ideas of "do what you like" and "do not bother have a family as the state can provide", will not support you in old age when the pension/debt crisis wrecks the economies of western nations.
    I'm finding it hard to relate the price of domestic property with a greater western decline.
    Your last point on falling population growth is more probley a key factor. Do you think its now too late for western goverments to promote population growth and therefore slow down and maybe reverse the decline?
    #freerick

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    Politics.ie Member storybud1's Avatar
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    You can draw many conclusions,
    The Super Rich are buying politicians (nothing new there) and Politicians are incapable or running a society where the people are sovereign.

    On the other hand the super rich do not have liquid cash, mostly shares which if they decided to offload would ruin listed companies and increase unemployment.

    The video takes no account of this and and the likes of one example where the Buffets and Gates will give approx 60 to 80 billion away (mostly to Countries outside America)

    What I find about these kind of diagnosis clips is that they simply do not offer a solution, bit like psycho babble therapy, they know what the problem is but cannot solve it, only repeat the same diagnosis again and again.

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    Politics.ie Member Telemachus's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Crack hoe View Post
    I'm finding it hard to relate the price of domestic property with a greater western decline.
    Your last point on falling population growth is more probley a key factor. Do you think its now too late for western goverments to promote population growth and therefore slow down and maybe reverse the decline?
    Western governments will do nothing, they are a failed hegemony, im waiting for liberal democracy to burn itself to the ground and then something better can emerge.
    Last edited by Telemachus; 6th March 2013 at 12:42 AM.
    ..the Irish nation can become other than white, by privileging the voices of the racialised and subverting state immigration but also integration policies. – Ronit Lentin

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    Stock Markets reached all time highs around the world today. This in the middle of a sustained economic downturn. It's hard to know what to make of it other than it's unsustainable and possibly another kind of bubble in the making similar to the dot com and sub prime bubbles.

    As for American Politicians they have completely lost control of the American economy through political grandstanding and incompetence.

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