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Thread: Prediction for Labour causalities in next general election.

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    Politics.ie Member pinemartin's Avatar
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    Default Prediction for Labour causalities in next general election.

    Was looking at the Labour seats won in the last election and am trying to predict the losses for them if the ran the exact same candidates in the exact same constituencies in the next election if they were sub 10% in the Polls. 10% is close to what they are at now but we still have to see water charges, House tax and a few austerity budgets to come.

    I have tried in an unscientific way to factor in local popularity, constituency size and the resurgence of FF and emergence of SF/ Indis. The next election looks very bleak for Labour and it is only the personal vote of some that will get them elected.

    In the 2007 election they got 10.1 % and 20 seats but in that election they were the opposition and so were not being blamed for government policy.They were more transfer friendly than I think they will be in this election, hence my prediction that they will struggle to hold on to anymore than about 11 seats.

    I understand that my predictions are totally unscientific and that I dont know the nuances that exist in many constituencies.I understand also that many of these TDs will not run or will run under a different banner. I will happily be open to correction by people with better knowledge of many of the constituencies.

    Here are my humble predictions.

    Phelan Carlow /KK GONE
    Michael McNamara Clare GONE.
    Cork East Sean Sherlock HOLD.
    Cork North central, Kathleen Lynch HOLD.
    Cork North Central but Ciaran Lynch GONE.
    Cork South West Michael West GONE.
    Dublin Central Joe Costello HOLD.
    Dublin Mid west HOLD one maybe Joanna Tuffy, Robert Dowds GONE.
    Dublin North.Brendan Ryan Maybe a chance of holding but more likely GONE.
    Dublin North Central Aodhan O Riordain very close but if he didnt get over 13% so GONE.
    Dublin North East Tommy Broughan should hold, Sean Kenny GONE.
    Dublin North West Shortall Hold, John Lyons GONE.
    Dublin South. Alex White GONE.
    Dublin South Central or Eric byrne 1 GONE Michael Conaghan for sure to close to say if both get dumped.HOLD 1.
    Dublin South East, Quinn HOLD just, Kevin Humphreys GONE.
    Dublin South West Pat Rabbitte HOLD, Eamonn Maloney GONE.
    Dublin West. Joan Burton should HOLD.
    Dun Laoghaire. Very close but Eamonn Gilmore would be toast.GONE.
    Galway East . Colm Keaveney GONE..
    Galway west Derek Nolan. GONE.
    Kerry North West AJ Spring GONE.
    Kildare North . Emmet Stagg should HOLD.
    Kildare South Jack Wall .HOLD.
    Limerick City Jan O sullivan GONE.
    Longford Westmeath Willie Penrose HOLD.
    Louth. Gerald Nash GONE.
    Meath East Dominic Hannigan. GONE.
    Tipp North Alan Kelly GONE.
    Waterford Ciara Conway. GONE.
    Wexford , Brendan Howlin . HOLD.
    Wicklow. Ann Ferris GONE.

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    I'll go drinking for a month when Colm Keaveney, Ciara Conway, Róisín Shortall and Ay-Yawn Ó'Reerd-Yawn lose their seats. Nastier and more contemptible people you couldn't hope to come across.

    An amazing contrast with the talented gentlemen (and women) in Labour - like the Lynches, Sherlock, White, Nolan, Jan O'Sullivan, the Uptons, etc.

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    No casualties - if they lose their seats, we will be paying their massive pensions anyway. So it's win-win for the politician.

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    Quite a number of those that you listed to hold wont even run again. I cant see the likes of Quinn or Stagg running again. They will both be approaching 70. I also wouldn't rule out Rabbitte stepping down also. These guys stayed in politics for the ministerial job, and they certainly wont be getting in the door of government buildings again for some time.

    Its actually a problem that Labour strategists will face. Those TD's would hold their seat due to high levels of personal satisfaction, but other party candidates will struggle. FF faced the same problem in 2011.

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    you seem to be forgetting the major boundary changes

    eg: Spring & Kelly will be contesting in 5 seat Kerry and Tipperary constituencies rather than their old 3 seaters and will both hold

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ryan Tubbs View Post
    I'll go drinking for a month when Colm Keaveney, Ciara Conway, Róisín Shortall and Ay-Yawn Ó'Reerd-Yawn lose their seats. Nastier and more contemptible people you couldn't hope to come across.

    An amazing contrast with the talented gentlemen (and women) in Labour - like the Lynches, Sherlock, White, Nolan, Jan O'Sullivan, the Uptons, etc.
    Jan O Sullivan is grossly incompetent and completely unsuitable for a left wing party (although given the current standard of smoked salmon socialist).

    The people of Limerick have seen that in a time of current austerity imposed on the country where people can barely put food on their tables, Jan 'Pockets' O Sullivan has actually increased her income as a Politician and has gone missing in the city. When in opposition she was constantly on the paper opposed to cutbacks, now she just puts her head in the sand and eats from the trough.

    Jim Kemmy is turning in his grave.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Number2 View Post
    No casualties - if they lose their seats, we will be paying their massive pensions anyway. So it's win-win for the politician.
    If you had any clue of what you're talking about (clearly you don't) then you'd know that most of the likely Labour casualties are first-time TDs and would, therefore, be entitled to very small pensions.

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    Sounds you are predicting a serious setback for a family franchise business that has been in operation for decades.

    It might reduce the number of people choosing champagne socialism as a career path.
    Coveney's ambition is the be Ireland's next EU Commissar and Ireland will pay a price as he builds his CV to position himself sufficiently loyal to the nEU empire.

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    Politics.ie Member Clanrickard's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by pinemartin View Post

    Here are my humble predictions.

    Phelan Carlow /KK GONE
    Michael McNamara Clare GONE.
    Cork East Sean Sherlock HOLD.
    Cork North central, Kathleen Lynch HOLD.
    Cork North Central but Ciaran Lynch GONE.
    Cork South West Michael West GONE.
    Dublin Central Joe Costello HOLD.
    Dublin Mid west HOLD one maybe Joanna Tuffy, Robert Dowds GONE.
    Dublin North.Brendan Ryan Maybe a chance of holding but more likely GONE.
    Dublin North Central Aodhan O Riordain very close but if he didnt get over 13% so GONE.
    Dublin North East Tommy Broughan should hold, Sean Kenny GONE.
    Dublin North West Shortall Hold, John Lyons GONE.
    Dublin South. Alex White GONE. Hold
    Dublin South Central or Eric byrne 1 GONE Michael Conaghan for sure to close to say if both get dumped.HOLD 1.
    Dublin South East, Quinn HOLD just, Kevin Humphreys GONE.
    Dublin South West Pat Rabbitte HOLD, Eamonn Maloney GONE.
    Dublin West. Joan Burton should HOLD.
    Dun Laoghaire. Very close but Eamonn Gilmore would be toast.GONE. Hold
    Galway East . Colm Keaveney GONE..
    Galway west Derek Nolan. GONE.
    Kerry North West AJ Spring GONE.
    Kildare North . Emmet Stagg should HOLD.
    Kildare South Jack Wall .HOLD.
    Limerick City Jan O sullivan GONE. Hold
    Longford Westmeath Willie Penrose HOLD.
    Louth. Gerald Nash GONE.
    Meath East Dominic Hannigan. GONE.
    Tipp North Alan Kelly GONE.
    Waterford Ciara Conway. GONE.
    Wexford , Brendan Howlin . HOLD.
    Wicklow. Ann Ferris GONE.

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    Politics.ie Member pinemartin's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jacko View Post
    you seem to be forgetting the major boundary changes

    eg: Spring & Kelly will be contesting in 5 seat Kerry and Tipperary constituencies rather than their old 3 seaters and will both hold
    I understand that many will be running with different boundaries. I think they both will find it difficult to get elected in a 5 seater with about 10%. They would need to get plenty of transfers for that to happen.

    Kelly got just under 19% , Spring got 20.8% , the Labour vote according to polls has dropped by about about 8.5 % so at the moment if they got the same vote -8.5% drop they would just about make it but the new constituencies have large areas where they have no previous history and this is before the water charges, the house tax and a few hard budgets.That combined with an increase in FF, SF and Indis and I would not be confident that they would get re elected.
    Last edited by pinemartin; 11th February 2013 at 07:55 PM.

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