Was looking at the Labour seats won in the last election and am trying to predict the losses for them if the ran the exact same candidates in the exact same constituencies in the next election if they were sub 10% in the Polls. 10% is close to what they are at now but we still have to see water charges, House tax and a few austerity budgets to come.
I have tried in an unscientific way to factor in local popularity, constituency size and the resurgence of FF and emergence of SF/ Indis. The next election looks very bleak for Labour and it is only the personal vote of some that will get them elected.
In the 2007 election they got 10.1 % and 20 seats but in that election they were the opposition and so were not being blamed for government policy.They were more transfer friendly than I think they will be in this election, hence my prediction that they will struggle to hold on to anymore than about 11 seats.
I understand that my predictions are totally unscientific and that I dont know the nuances that exist in many constituencies.I understand also that many of these TDs will not run or will run under a different banner. I will happily be open to correction by people with better knowledge of many of the constituencies.
Here are my humble predictions.
Phelan Carlow /KK GONE
Michael McNamara Clare GONE.
Cork East Sean Sherlock HOLD.
Cork North central, Kathleen Lynch HOLD.
Cork North Central but Ciaran Lynch GONE.
Cork South West Michael West GONE.
Dublin Central Joe Costello HOLD.
Dublin Mid west HOLD one maybe Joanna Tuffy, Robert Dowds GONE.
Dublin North.Brendan Ryan Maybe a chance of holding but more likely GONE.
Dublin North Central Aodhan O Riordain very close but if he didnt get over 13% so GONE.
Dublin North East Tommy Broughan should hold, Sean Kenny GONE.
Dublin North West Shortall Hold, John Lyons GONE.
Dublin South. Alex White GONE.
Dublin South Central or Eric byrne 1 GONE Michael Conaghan for sure to close to say if both get dumped.HOLD 1.
Dublin South East, Quinn HOLD just, Kevin Humphreys GONE.
Dublin South West Pat Rabbitte HOLD, Eamonn Maloney GONE.
Dublin West. Joan Burton should HOLD.
Dun Laoghaire. Very close but Eamonn Gilmore would be toast.GONE.
Galway East . Colm Keaveney GONE..
Galway west Derek Nolan. GONE.
Kerry North West AJ Spring GONE.
Kildare North . Emmet Stagg should HOLD.
Kildare South Jack Wall .HOLD.
Limerick City Jan O sullivan GONE.
Longford Westmeath Willie Penrose HOLD.
Louth. Gerald Nash GONE.
Meath East Dominic Hannigan. GONE.
Tipp North Alan Kelly GONE.
Waterford Ciara Conway. GONE.
Wexford , Brendan Howlin . HOLD.
Wicklow. Ann Ferris GONE.