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Thread: China nightmare: its cheap labour resource is drying up

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    Politics.ie Member gracethepirate's Avatar
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    Default China nightmare: its cheap labour resource is drying up

    IMF sees 140m jobs shortage in ageing China as 'Lewis Point' hits - Telegraph

    China will run out of cheap labour in around seven years and will have a shortage of labour of 140 million people. This is an incredible labour collapse. One solution suggested at Davos by a Chinese demographer was to

    resort to mass suicide in the end, shoving pensioners onto the ice
    "Shoving" sounds more like murder than suicide.

    Here's a link to the IMF report (downloadable pdf) upon which the Telegraph report is based:
    http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2013/wp1326.pdf

    Some US manufacturers, including Apple (some parts), Ford, Caterpillar and General Electric are already starting to bring their factories back home. I think this is a good move even though we consumers may end up paying higher prices. In the meantime China is trying to steal as many trade secrets as it can. It does not yet realise that theft brings bad karma.

    The Telegraph article concludes:
    My guess is that there is one last cycle of Chinese fever to enjoy -- if that is right word -- before the aging crunch and the credit hangover combine with toxic effect. One thing is for sure: a middle-income country with a shrinking work force is not about to displace the United States as global hegemon.
    There may be an opportunity here for Ireland. A much smaller economy and population could pick up bits...

    What do you think are the implications for Ireland and the world economy?
    Brexit comes straight from hell. Everywhere it goes it causes disharmony, turbulence and misery. I think Brexiteers themselves must have some form of mental illness.

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    Politics.ie Member Burnout's Avatar
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    We should go back and make things, simple things that we need as we used to, shoes, textiles, furniture etc. Make something.

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    Politics.ie Member gracethepirate's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Burnout View Post
    We should go back and make things, simple things that we need as we used to, shoes, textiles, furniture etc. Make something.
    I agree: nearly all our needs could be met by local production, everywhere. When Iceland was forced to go back to its own resources, it did fine. In a sense all this multi-national supply is a bit of a mirage and does not always benefit the consumer. It blinds us to what we can do ourselves.

    We still need some multi-national things, Apple stuff for instance. That's a personal bias, but even Windows people know what I mean. But with the development of 3D printing (still in very early stages) we may be able to become self-sufficient in high tech stuff too.
    Brexit comes straight from hell. Everywhere it goes it causes disharmony, turbulence and misery. I think Brexiteers themselves must have some form of mental illness.

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    Politics.ie Member Crazy horse 6's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Burnout View Post
    We should go back and make things, simple things that we need as we used to, shoes, textiles, furniture etc. Make something.
    Been saying likewise for years.

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    Politics.ie Member Toland's Avatar
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    This good news for China, good news for the developing world and in the long term good for the world economy.

    It means slower growth for China, but also marks its proximity to the developed west.

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    Politics.ie Member gracethepirate's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Crazy horse 6 View Post
    Been saying likewise for years.
    So have I
    Brexit comes straight from hell. Everywhere it goes it causes disharmony, turbulence and misery. I think Brexiteers themselves must have some form of mental illness.

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    Politics.ie Member FrankSpeaks's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Toland View Post
    This good news for China, good news for the developing world and in the long term good for the world economy.

    It means slower growth for China, but also marks its proximity to the developed west.
    I agree it's good news for us, we need to start making things again and get over our need for the shoddy cheap goods emanating from China.
    There's a lot to be said for the fellow who doesn't say it himself. -- Maurice Switzer

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    Politics.ie Member Nemesiscorporation's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by gracethepirate View Post
    IMF sees 140m jobs shortage in ageing China as 'Lewis Point' hits - Telegraph

    China will run out of cheap labour in around seven years and will have a shortage of labour of 140 million people. This is an incredible labour collapse. One solution suggested at Davos by a Chinese demographer was to

    "Shoving" sounds more like murder than suicide.

    Here's a link to the IMF report (downloadable pdf) upon which the Telegraph report is based:
    http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2013/wp1326.pdf

    Some US manufacturers, including Apple (some parts), Ford, Caterpillar and General Electric are already starting to bring their factories back home. I think this is a good move even though we consumers may end up paying higher prices. In the meantime China is trying to steal as many trade secrets as it can. It does not yet realise that theft brings bad karma.

    The Telegraph article concludes:


    There may be an opportunity here for Ireland. A much smaller economy and population could pick up bits...

    What do you think are the implications for Ireland and the world economy?
    China has lifted over 300 million people out of poverty. That development has been mostly in the East and South East of the country. Development is lowly moving west in China and it will take at least 20 years for China to run out of that cheap labour.

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    Quote Originally Posted by gracethepirate View Post
    IMF sees 140m jobs shortage in ageing China as 'Lewis Point' hits - Telegraph

    China will run out of cheap labour in around seven years and will have a shortage of labour of 140 million people. This is an incredible labour collapse. One solution suggested at Davos by a Chinese demographer was to

    "Shoving" sounds more like murder than suicide.

    Here's a link to the IMF report (downloadable pdf) upon which the Telegraph report is based:
    http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2013/wp1326.pdf

    Some US manufacturers, including Apple (some parts), Ford, Caterpillar and General Electric are already starting to bring their factories back home. I think this is a good move even though we consumers may end up paying higher prices. In the meantime China is trying to steal as many trade secrets as it can. It does not yet realise that theft brings bad karma.

    The Telegraph article concludes:


    There may be an opportunity here for Ireland. A much smaller economy and population could pick up bits...

    What do you think are the implications for Ireland and the world economy?
    China is about to displace the USA as global hegemon.

  10. #10
    Politics.ie Member Nemesiscorporation's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ManUnited View Post
    China is about to displace the USA as global hegemon.
    That process started over a decade ago and has been accelerating since.

    China now makes its cheapest goods in Ethiopia and other parts of Africa. They are even in negotiations with Somaliland in Northern Somalia which is stable unlike the south of the country for off shoring.

    Also manufacturing is coming back because some are realising that neoliberal dogma is just dogma with no foundation.

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