Please don't tell me it was a success because of the British over reaction! Please don't tell me it was about a messianic shedding of blood that was virtually predesigned to end in failure!
What if they got American support? What if the Aud got through? What if Sir Roger Casement had been more successful in recruiting Irish POWs?
To be honest I find it very difficult to see how they could have triumphed directly due to it!
I also believe that had they succeeded directly, a civil war would soon follow, North V South or among the rebels themselves or possibly both, which would require British intervention to stop, so back to square 1!