Follow @PoliticsIE
 
 
 
Page 1 of 6 12345 ... LastLast
Results 1 to 10 of 60

Thread: "Coalition will struggle to hold seats" says SINDO

  1. #1
    Politics.ie Member davehiggz's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2009
    Location
    Dublin, Ireland
    Posts
    1,117
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)

    Default "Coalition will struggle to hold seats" says SINDO

    John Drennan is giving us his political analysis today in the Sunday Independent off the back of some poor poll results for the coalition in the past week.

    Coalition will struggle to hold seats, says poll - National News - Independent.ie

    I always remember Drennan from before the last election when he predicted that Labour would get MORE seats than Fine Gael at the last election. His pull out section detailed every constituency and how Labour was going to win big in all of them.....

    Today he makes another set of inaccurate predictions on the next election.

    Astonishingly, given the scale of the Coalition's majority just 11 per cent of poll respondents said a FG/Labour Coalition would be their preferred Coalition option after the next general election.

    What will be perhaps even more surprising, within the context of their recent respective pasts a Sinn Fein/Fianna Fail Coalition secured a similar level of support.

    In an indication of an ongoing rise in support for FF the other most popular options were FF/Independents, 9 per cent and FG/FF which secured the support of 7 per cent of those who were polled.

    However, in what can only be viewed as a strong indicator of public distaste for politicians and the political process, the two most popular responses, at 22 per cent each, were 'Don't Know' and 'None of these/Other combinations'.

    The essential rejection by 44 per cent of the electorate of all current possible political permutations is also indicative of a strong level of latent support for a new political party.
    22+22+7+9+11+11 = 82%.....

    When it comes to likely seat losses the figures suggest the Coalition would particularly struggle in constituencies such as Cork South-East and Dublin Mid-West where they managed the astonishing political feat of winning all available seats in 2011 whilst there will be no reprise of the Coalition's feat of winning four out of five seats in the 2011 five-seat constituencies of Wicklow, Mayo and Dublin South.
    Cork South-East does not exist, he means Cork South West.

    ElectionsIreland.org: 31st Dáil - Cork South West First Preference Votes

    Labour shouldn't have gotten that seat to begin with. Even if the polls were the same as GE11, Fianna Fáil would win that seat back.

    ElectionsIreland.org: 31st Dáil - Dublin Mid West First Preference Votes

    I admit a more real danger in Mid-West, but I can't see BOTH SF and FF making gains here. Sinn Féin will take a seat from Labour, but Fianna Fáil recovering their seat is far from certain. Will Curran run again?

    Mayo and Dublin South are now down to 4 and 3 seats respectively. Of course the coalition won't retain 4 seats in each.....


    One source told the Sunday Independent: "Phil is very much the number two dog in the town of Kilkenny to John McGuinness and he's the number two dog in the country to John Paul Phelan. Pat Deering has embedded himself in Carlow. It could be a very long count for Phil if he runs in the next election."
    I think he means county....

    ElectionsIreland.org: 31st Dáil - Carlow Kilkenny First Preference Votes

    Labour's seat will go first before Phil's 10000+ votes are eaten away at. The only way for Phil to lose his seat is for Sinn Féin to take it, and that's very, very unlikely.

    Though his age means he is unlikely to run again, should he do so the unpopular Justice Minister Alan Shatter, who barely scraped into the last seat in Dublin South in the previous election is poised to be the major casualty of the FF revival in Dublin.
    Nonsense, Shatter will be casualty to the boundary review. Rathdown is now 3 seats. Having said that there will be at least one Fine Gael seat. Hard to see Fianna Fáil taking a seat in Rathdown considering they polled their LOWEST vote nationwide in the old Dublin South. Rathdown may well go 2FG, 1IND on the back of Labour transfers.

    James Reilly, whose unpopularity reached the unprecedented level of 30 per cent in the last Sunday Independent Millward Brown rating of Cabinet Ministers, will be another major target whilst Children's Minister Frances Fitzgerald will be acutely aware of the threat posed to her by a pincer movement of FF and Sinn Fein.
    ElectionsIreland.org: 31st Dáil - Dublin North First Preference Votes

    Dublin North is now a 5-seater. Fianna Fáil will probably take the new seat, but the rest are likely to remain. Even if Fine Gael was down to one seat, Reilly will take it over Alan Farrell.

    ElectionsIreland.org: 31st Dáil - Dublin Mid West First Preference Votes

    Even if FF AND SF take seats here, Frances Fitzgerald will poll above Keating and hold the one Fine Gael seat. Wishful thinking to suggest otherwise.

    Other ministers who could be in trouble are Labour's Kathleen Lynch and the former PD leader and current FG Minister Ciaran Cannon and Junior Enterprise Minister John Perry,
    ElectionsIreland.org: 31st Dáil - Cork North Central First Preference Votes

    Labour have a large buffer of votes for them to hold one seat. All seats will stay the same here next time in terms of the parties. Socialists would have to take her seat and that will not happen.

    ElectionsIreland.org: 31st Dáil - Galway East First Preference Votes

    Galway East is now 3 seats. Despite that, the cut has impacted on Connaughton's vote, much more than Cannon's. It's also important to remember that Keaveney is a goner next time. There's at least one FG seat here and Cannon looks poised to hold it.

    ElectionsIreland.org: 31st Dáil - Sligo Leitrim North First Preference Votes

    Sligo is now 4 seats and Perry is a poll topper. He's not at risk.

    Though the Labour top table is in somewhat less trouble the backlash against the party, particularly in Munster and Connacht-Ulster where the party is polling at less than 10 per cent, means a number of talented Junior Ministers such as Sean Sherlock and Alan Kelly, who are seen by insiders to be the next generation of leaders, will be in serious political trouble.
    ElectionsIreland.org: 31st Dáil - Cork East First Preference Votes

    Sherlock's a poll topper with a massive buffer of Labour votes behind him. Fine Gael will sooner lost one of their two seats than Sherlock losing his.

    ElectionsIreland.org: 31st Dáil - Tipperary North First Preference Votes

    Tipperary is now a 5-seater. If Alan Kelly is their only candidate then there should be enough votes for him to hold on.


    The whole article is a collection of speculative nonsense without any regard to the boundary changes or basic statistics.

    Rant over.

  2. #2
    Politics.ie Member controller's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2009
    Location
    Dublin
    Posts
    3,175
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)

    Default

    Come the next election, you lot are still toast. Good riddance to you. You're no better than FF
    Dear Lord Baby Jesus, I want to thank you for Pink Floyd

  3. #3
    Politics.ie Member gijoe's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Posts
    15,301
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)

    Default

    The gobsh1te that is John Drennan strikes again in that article.

    When it comes to likely seat losses the figures suggest the Coalition would particularly struggle in constituencies such as Cork South-East and Dublin Mid-West where they managed the astonishing political feat of winning all available seats in 2011 whilst there will be no reprise of the Coalition's feat of winning four out of five seats in the 2011 five-seat constituencies of Wicklow, Mayo and Dublin South.
    Well done John! Mayo will only be a 4 seater and Dublin South a 3 seater next time out you bluffer!!

  4. #4
    Politics.ie Member wombat's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2007
    Posts
    31,189
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by davehiggz View Post
    The whole article is a collection of speculative nonsense without any regard to the boundary changes or basic statistics.

    Rant over.
    Its the Sindo, who cares?

  5. #5
    Politics.ie Member sic transit's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2008
    Posts
    24,758
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by controller View Post
    Come the next election, you lot are still toast. Good riddance to you. You're no better than FF
    It's a cold wet day in eh.... January 2013, at least two years from an election, a very peculiar poll indeed and it's the Sindo. Surely these polling companies talk to each other and they are aware if they are polling. Two polls this close in an election campaign make sense but pretty pointless at present.
    "There is nothing noble in being superior to your fellow man; true nobility is being superior to your former self." Ernest Hemingway

  6. #6

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by davehiggz View Post
    The whole article is a collection of speculative nonsense without any regard to the boundary changes or basic statistics.

    Rant over.
    Were you not previously familiar with the "work" of Drennan? Seriously. It's only worth reading anything he writes , if you are is desperate or in need of a laugh.
    Last edited by Keith-M; 13th January 2013 at 02:26 PM.
    Thank you for the six thousand likes.

  7. #7
    Moderator Cato's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Location
    Ithaca
    Posts
    20,719
    Mentioned
    1 Post(s)

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Keith-M View Post

    Were you not previously familiar with he "work" of Drennan? Seriously. It's only worth reading anything he write , if you are is desperate need of a laugh.
    Are you the pot or kettle in this scenario? Two seats, anyone?
    “I would rather be exposed to the inconveniences attending too much liberty, than those attending too small a degree of it." - Thomas Jefferson (yeah, I'm aware of the irony)

  8. #8
    Politics.ie Member Analyzer's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2011
    Location
    Northern Ireland - without forgiveness, there is dysfunctionality.
    Posts
    46,117
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Keith-M View Post
    Were you not previously familiar with he "work" of Drennan? Seriously. It's only worth reading anything he write , if you are is desperate need of a laugh.
    In fairness you could say that about the entire Dublin print media. Drivel factories.
    Coveney's ambition is the be Ireland's next EU Commissar and Ireland will pay a price as he builds his CV to position himself sufficiently loyal to the nEU empire.

  9. #9
    Politics.ie Member Analyzer's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2011
    Location
    Northern Ireland - without forgiveness, there is dysfunctionality.
    Posts
    46,117
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)

    Default

    We need three new political parties. To make sure tha FF do not get any reprise.
    Coveney's ambition is the be Ireland's next EU Commissar and Ireland will pay a price as he builds his CV to position himself sufficiently loyal to the nEU empire.

  10. #10
    Politics.ie Member
    Join Date
    Jan 2007
    Location
    Kildare, but really from Cork
    Posts
    8,084
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)

    Default

    I didnt realise that there was an election in the offing....

    Really this country seems to have its priorities arse about face....

Page 1 of 6 12345 ... LastLast

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •