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Thread: A British exit from the EU: A disaster for Ireland? Really?

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    Politics.ie Member seabhac siulach's Avatar
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    Default A British exit from the EU: A disaster for Ireland? Really?

    There has been much discussion in the media recently about a possible British exit (Brexit) from the EU; all of this in anticipation of a speech by British Prime Minister David Cameron on the 22nd January, in which he is expected to set out Britain's future relationship with the EU. In recent days An Taoiseach Enda Kenny has stated publicly that a British exit from the EU would be "disastrous for our country" (The PM's speech: Cameron ties himself in knots over EU question - The Irish Times - Fri, Jan 11, 2013).

    However, would it really be disastrous?

    One can envisage a number of scenarios that would result from British withdrawal from the EU.

    Assuming Britain withdrew from the EU, Scotland would likely choose to remain in the EU, thereby triggering Scottish independence and the eventual break-up of the UK. This would likely accelerate either the unification of Ireland or the creation of some form of loose federation involving Scotland, Ireland and Northern Ireland. It would certainly force Northern Irish Unionism to seriously consider their position. If unification is the result, how would this be "disastrous", considering it is the "firm will" of the constitution, in Article 3, to achieve this very outcome. Of course, one could envisage a severe economic burden as well as possible civil disturbance arising out of unification. But, if unification comes, one must assume it is with the consent of the vast majority of the people of Northern Ireland and that the economic burdens would be happily, if grudgingly, shouldered by all in the interest of achieving this historically desired unity (after all, we are presently stoically shouldering the crippling debt of useless, criminal banks; would we really not shoulder the more wholesome economic burden of unifying our nation if it came to it?).

    On a financial level, there may even be benefits. In the event of Brexit, we would remain (until the joining of Scotland) as the only english speaking country in the EU. This would be a huge benefit to us. That is, there would likely be an exodus of multinational companies and firms from the Britain to Ireland, in this event. There would also likely be a substantial movement of funds from the City of London to the IFSC. Scotland could, in time, grow to be a competitor to Ireland in these areas, but that is assuming that its membership of the EU is quickly approved (remember Ireland could block its membership, much as Cyprus and others are currently blocking Turkey's membership), and, indeed, that Scotland even gains independence in the first place.

    In addition, there is little danger to the trade that exists between Ireland and the UK as, even if Britain fully withdraws from the EU, it is likely to remain on in the European Free Trade Association (EFTA), thereby assuring trade between our islands is fully maintained. That is, our large exports to Britain are under very little threat. The common travel area, etc. is also under little threat from a British withdrawal from the EU.

    On a further geo-political level, it is in Ireland's historical interest to see Britain (England) reduced to a rump state, isolated from the EU. Once out of the EU, which is a growing global power, England would be as Puerto Rico is to the United States: insignificant. Ireland, moreover, remaining in the EU, would have the power to control England's eventual re-entry to the EU, conferring on us a power over our neighbours that would be a reversal of the position that has been extant for hundreds of years now. We should, if anything, be silently encouraging our neighbour to leave the EU, just to place ourselves in this advantageous position. It would be nice, at last, would it not, to be history's victor and not its victim?

    So, in terms of unification of the island, financial benefits that would accrue, maintenance of exports and a possible ability to screw the English (call it compensation for the famine, etc), would a Brexit really be disastrous?

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    Politics.ie Member seabhcan's Avatar
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    Even if all of the UK left the EU, I don't think it would have any negative impact on Ireland. Trade would continue. The UK would stay in the single market, probably by becoming an EEA member. Little practically would change.

    It might actually be good for us, as in the early years at least, some foreign investment would divert here due to uncertainty about the future UK/EU relationship.

    In fact, even if they never actually leave, the uncertainty that Cameron's referendum speech will create will likely divert some jobs our way. And I'm sure that the IDA will be playing that card for all its worth.

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    The UK are a small overpopulated country and dreaming of past glories....Cameron will issue threats of withdrawel but is unlikely to pull out....After all where would they go?..There is no empire anymore.

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    can we get a poll for this question?

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    I doubt they'd be terribly missed by the rest of Europe. I can't see how our exports would be affected. Having said that, I'd prefer them to be part of the European idea. If we really intend to move away from the past (despite Johnny365's desire for violence) we should hope for a united Europe.
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    the english are many things but daft they are not.
    looking at trends they are increasing defecit with the eu but trade to the rest of the world is growing rapidly. the eu is a sinking ship, a declining over regulated over taxed market. they are right to have stayed out of the euro and are right to be thinking of a re negotiated settlement with the eu. if its on their terms they could have the cake and eat it. the Uk is the eu biggest export market the UK's in a strong position to dictate terms.

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    Politics.ie Member firefly123's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kev408 View Post
    I doubt they'd be terribly missed by the rest of Europe. I can't see how our exports would be affected. Having said that, I'd prefer them to be part of the European idea. If we really intend to move away from the past (despite Johnny365's desire for violence) we should hope for a united Europe.
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    Politics.ie Member Spanner Island's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by seabhac siulach View Post
    There has been much discussion in the media recently about a possible British exit (Brexit) from the EU; all of this in anticipation of a speech by British Prime Minister David Cameron on the 22nd January, in which he is expected to set out Britain's future relationship with the EU. In recent days An Taoiseach Enda Kenny has stated publicly that a British exit from the EU would be "disastrous for our country" (The PM's speech: Cameron ties himself in knots over EU question - The Irish Times - Fri, Jan 11, 2013).

    However, would it really be disastrous?

    One can envisage a number of scenarios that would result from British withdrawal from the EU.

    Assuming Britain withdrew from the EU, Scotland would likely choose to remain in the EU, thereby triggering Scottish independence and the eventual break-up of the UK. This would likely accelerate either the unification of Ireland or the creation of some form of loose federation involving Scotland, Ireland and Northern Ireland. It would certainly force Northern Irish Unionism to seriously consider their position. If unification is the result, how would this be "disastrous", considering it is the "firm will" of the constitution, in Article 3, to achieve this very outcome. Of course, one could envisage a severe economic burden as well as possible civil disturbance arising out of unification. But, if unification comes, one must assume it is with the consent of the vast majority of the people of Northern Ireland and that the economic burdens would be happily, if grudgingly, shouldered by all in the interest of achieving this historically desired unity (after all, we are presently stoically shouldering the crippling debt of useless, criminal banks; would we really not shoulder the more wholesome economic burden of unifying our nation if it came to it?).
    There will be no referendum in the UK regarding EU membership before the Scottish independence referendum, so the Scots will have decided if they want independence already - and I suspect they're not going to touch it myself.

    Scottish, Irish, NI federation... WTF are you on about?

    F*** that for a load of sh!t.

    There is so much crap going on currently that NI and UI obsessives appear more out of touch than ever...

    On a financial level, there may even be benefits. In the event of Brexit, we would remain (until the joining of Scotland) as the only english speaking country in the EU. This would be a huge benefit to us. That is, there would likely be an exodus of multinational companies and firms from the Britain to Ireland, in this event. There would also likely be a substantial movement of funds from the City of London to the IFSC. Scotland could, in time, grow to be a competitor to Ireland in these areas, but that is assuming that its membership of the EU is quickly approved (remember Ireland could block its membership, much as Cyprus and others are currently blocking Turkey's membership), and, indeed, that Scotland even gains independence in the first place.
    These and other reasons are why the UK will not leave the EU.

    They will wake up before they pull the plug on themselves.

    In addition, there is little danger to the trade that exists between Ireland and the UK as, even if Britain fully withdraws from the EU, it is likely to remain on in the European Free Trade Association (EFTA), thereby assuring trade between our islands is fully maintained. That is, our large exports to Britain are under very little threat. The common travel area, etc. is also under little threat from a British withdrawal from the EU.
    If the UK left the EU it is likely that Sterling would plummet in value which would make our products expensive in the UK...

    On a further geo-political level, it is in Ireland's historical interest to see Britain (England) reduced to a rump state, isolated from the EU. Once out of the EU, which is a growing global power, England would be as Puerto Rico is to the United States: insignificant. Ireland, moreover, remaining in the EU, would have the power to control England's eventual re-entry to the EU, conferring on us a power over our neighbours that would be a reversal of the position that has been extant for hundreds of years now. We should, if anything, be silently encouraging our neighbour to leave the EU, just to place ourselves in this advantageous position. It would be nice, at last, would it not, to be history's victor and not its victim?
    You're a moron.

    So, in terms of unification of the island, financial benefits that would accrue, maintenance of exports and a possible ability to screw the English (call it compensation for the famine, etc), would a Brexit really be disastrous?
    Again, you're a moron.

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    Politics.ie Member jo9jo's Avatar
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    I really do not believe the UK will leave the EU.
    However, I believe Cameron is looking for concessions from the EU and currently it is not possible for the EU to deal with him.

    A threat to leave would lead to negotiations and a 'compromise' will be arrived at and Cameron gets what he wants and the EU gets kudos for retaining the UK in the EU.

    It is just a ploy to distract the EU citizens.

    Cameron is a shrewd operator and he is playing a strong card.

    The UK will never leave the EU.

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    Politics.ie Member ticketyboo's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by seabhac siulach View Post
    There has been much discussion in the media recently about a possible British exit (Brexit) from the EU; all of this in anticipation of a speech by British Prime Minister David Cameron on the 22nd January, in which he is expected to set out Britain's future relationship with the EU. In recent days An Taoiseach Enda Kenny has stated publicly that a British exit from the EU would be "disastrous for our country" (The PM's speech: Cameron ties himself in knots over EU question - The Irish Times - Fri, Jan 11, 2013).

    However, would it really be disastrous?

    One can envisage a number of scenarios that would result from British withdrawal from the EU.

    Assuming Britain withdrew from the EU, Scotland would likely choose to remain in the EU, thereby triggering Scottish independence and the eventual break-up of the UK. This would likely accelerate either the unification of Ireland or the creation of some form of loose federation involving Scotland, Ireland and Northern Ireland. It would certainly force Northern Irish Unionism to seriously consider their position. If unification is the result, how would this be "disastrous", considering it is the "firm will" of the constitution, in Article 3, to achieve this very outcome. Of course, one could envisage a severe economic burden as well as possible civil disturbance arising out of unification. But, if unification comes, one must assume it is with the consent of the vast majority of the people of Northern Ireland and that the economic burdens would be happily, if grudgingly, shouldered by all in the interest of achieving this historically desired unity (after all, we are presently stoically shouldering the crippling debt of useless, criminal banks; would we really not shoulder the more wholesome economic burden of unifying our nation if it came to it?).

    On a financial level, there may even be benefits. In the event of Brexit, we would remain (until the joining of Scotland) as the only english speaking country in the EU. This would be a huge benefit to us. That is, there would likely be an exodus of multinational companies and firms from the Britain to Ireland, in this event. There would also likely be a substantial movement of funds from the City of London to the IFSC. Scotland could, in time, grow to be a competitor to Ireland in these areas, but that is assuming that its membership of the EU is quickly approved (remember Ireland could block its membership, much as Cyprus and others are currently blocking Turkey's membership), and, indeed, that Scotland even gains independence in the first place.

    In addition, there is little danger to the trade that exists between Ireland and the UK as, even if Britain fully withdraws from the EU, it is likely to remain on in the European Free Trade Association (EFTA), thereby assuring trade between our islands is fully maintained. That is, our large exports to Britain are under very little threat. The common travel area, etc. is also under little threat from a British withdrawal from the EU.

    On a further geo-political level, it is in Ireland's historical interest to see Britain (England) reduced to a rump state, isolated from the EU. Once out of the EU, which is a growing global power, England would be as Puerto Rico is to the United States: insignificant. Ireland, moreover, remaining in the EU, would have the power to control England's eventual re-entry to the EU, conferring on us a power over our neighbours that would be a reversal of the position that has been extant for hundreds of years now. We should, if anything, be silently encouraging our neighbour to leave the EU, just to place ourselves in this advantageous position. It would be nice, at last, would it not, to be history's victor and not its victim?

    So, in terms of unification of the island, financial benefits that would accrue, maintenance of exports and a possible ability to screw the English (call it compensation for the famine, etc), would a Brexit really be disastrous?
    Congratulations on a thoughtful, well written post. Personally, I'm wearing all the possible benefits envisaged like a comfort blanket, but I do fear that a lot of your projected outcomes are, sorry, wishful thinking, even though I'm wishing for a lot of them myself.
    So, in summation, I come in peace, kind stranger, but in my heart of hearts, I think two things will happen.
    I don't think there is any prospect of Britain exiting...again, the Tory backwoodsmen will tear that party assunder over this, along with their demands for fruit and veg to be sold in pounds and ounces. In addition, Scotland will reject the referendum...again, to my dismay.
    It's difficult to dislodge the incumbent, be it an office holder or the prevailing orthodoxy.

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