Follow @PoliticsIE
 
 
 
Page 1 of 32 1234511 ... LastLast
Results 1 to 10 of 314

Thread: The truth about the property market

  1. #1
    Politics.ie Member
    Join Date
    Jun 2011
    Posts
    329
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)

    Default The truth about the property market

    http://advice.myhome.ie/2013/01/myho...meter-q4-2012/
     Average asking price nationally is now DOWN 51.5% from peak.
     exclusively based on asking prices
     The price of new properties declined by 3.2% in Q4 bringing the annual rate of decline to 9%
     Ms Kelleher said the outlook remains uncertain with further volatility in prices likely in 2013.

    http://www.daft.ie/report/?posted=1
     Average asking price nationally is now down 51.3% from peak.
     For the first time, examines actual sold prices based on data from the Property Price Register
     There was a 0.9% decline nationally in Q4, 2012 (so leave the Irish independent toilet papers in the shops)
     Asking prices are still falling rapidly in Munster, Connacht and Ulster. Indeed, for the first time since prices started to fall, the fall from the peak is greater in Connacht-Ulster (55.9%)

    Analysis of both articles
    http://namawinelake.wordpress.com/20...at-lower-rate/

    Price suppressing Factor for 2013:
    Property tax,
    Loss of mortgage interest rate relief, some of the demand from 2013 was stolen and crammed into 2012 instead
    Lack of mortgage funding,
    Further reduced disposable income and wages (due to continued recession and increased taxes not just in 2013 but beyond),
    Increase in supply due to large increase repossessions. 185,000 mortgages are at risk of default (already restructured or in arrears) based on the latest analysis done by Constantine Gurdgiev (due to NAMA being forced to offload property and personal insolvency bill).
    The introduction of a 1% stamp duty tax for first time buyers
    New build costs are difficult to ascertain as although the cost of labour has decreased the price of materials has increased. (But site prices have decreased alot)
    Some that isnt mentioned much in teh main stream media, but is touched on here by David McWilliams willl have a profoundly negative affect on property prices: the eventual and inevitable increase in the ECB interest rates.
    http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2013/0...o-trackerville
    The FED in the US has announced that it will not increase rates until after 2015 (and may actual be much later)
    In Europe though we may not be so lucky.

    Factors which may lead to an increase in property prices in 2013:
    Increased rental yields may encourage buy to let (but will have a very negligible affect)
    The abolishment of the high stamp duty rate for second home buyers (reduced to 1%)
    A balance has been reached in Dublin and possibly in the other cities between supply and demand (Therefore this may give others outside Dublin a perception of future price movement) In Dublin the stock of available properties for sale continues to decline and is now at just over 4,000
    The only other actual thing which I can see that the property market has going for it is that the main stream media propaganda Irish times and independent toilet papers are attempting to stoke the fires again (and the last thing buyers want is to miss the bottom, perception of future price movement)
    http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/...328254025.html
    http://www.independent.ie/national-n...y-3338359.html

    My analysis of all this:
    If the Government do want to revive the property market (and it is not my contention that they should be involved at all) Then obviously one way would be to leave the interest rate relief for first time buyers.
    They could also do something that not many talk about and that is to ensure the banks borrow and lend on a long term interest rate, so borrowers could choose a fixed interest rate of X% over 30 years, this is done in other countries and is a sounder business model for banks and peace of mind/potentially more sustainable for buyers. If borrowers knew the total cost of the house for the life of the mortgage they may be more liable to purchase a house.
    I believe it will take years for demand to meet the oversupply of houses outside of Dublin and although house prices may bottom out in the next year or two, it will take a while after for prices to rise much on a consistent basis.
    Austerity budgets will continue for at least 3 more years. The government’s own figures show that unemployment will only fall negligibly over the next 3 years. (The fall is mainly due to net emigration)

    There is no sign of any world recovery in the US have fiscal problems and a Gov debt of approaching 17trillion $, Germany's GDP is beginning to decline, Italy and France are also having problems with there debt to GDP levels. The UK also has huge debt problems (something which most media fail to comment on),
    Being a small country exporting mainly to these places, we are far from out of the woods.
    Last edited by murtaep; 3rd January 2013 at 12:25 PM.

  2. #2
    Politics.ie Member Analyzer's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2011
    Location
    Northern Ireland - without forgiveness, there is dysfunctionality.
    Posts
    46,117
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)

    Default

    Myhole dot ie and Angela Keegan.
    And propertypaper with a news supplement.

    No amount of jawboning will arrest the fact that PAYE taxpayers have SFA money in their pockets at the end of the week. And the 400 thousand on the dole are not going to be bidding for real estate any time soon.
    Coveney's ambition is the be Ireland's next EU Commissar and Ireland will pay a price as he builds his CV to position himself sufficiently loyal to the nEU empire.

  3. #3
    Politics.ie Member mr. jings's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2008
    Posts
    8,063
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Analyzer View Post
    Myhole dot ie and Angela Keegan.
    And propertypaper with a news supplement.

    No amount of jawboning will arrest the fact that PAYE taxpayers have SFA money in their pockets at the end of the week. And the 400 thousand on the dole are not going to be bidding for real estate any time soon.
    ...and that banks are opportunist fair weather parasitic scumbags.

  4. #4
    Politics.ie Member
    Join Date
    Jun 2011
    Posts
    329
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Analyzer View Post
    Myhole dot ie and Angela Keegan.
    And propertypaper with a news supplement.

    No amount of jawboning will arrest the fact that PAYE taxpayers have SFA money in their pockets at the end of the week. And the 400 thousand on the dole are not going to be bidding for real estate any time soon.
    I covered that in my analysis.

  5. #5
    Politics.ie Member Asparagus's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2010
    Posts
    4,879
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Analyzer View Post
    Myhole dot ie and Angela Keegan.
    And propertypaper with a news supplement.

    No amount of jawboning will arrest the fact that PAYE taxpayers have SFA money in their pockets at the end of the week. And the 400 thousand on the dole are not going to be bidding for real estate any time soon.

    20,000 + mortgages in arrears for over 720 days (2 years)
    65,000 + mortgages > 90 < 720 days
    ????? mortgages >30 <90 days

    17,621 Houses sold last year

    We are in an absolute chasm of a mortgage crisis - without some massive intervention this will last for 2 or 3 generations.
    The social carnage will wreck any chance at recovery, the hamfisted and yet tippy tap approach suggested by the government will lead to a mass exodus/bankrupcy of the middle class

    My kids will not make the mistakes our generation did - we have seen the emporer and we know he is without clothes

    But hey lets gut the country to pay off the wealthy fraudsters debts/public servants unsustainable salary demands
    ANGER IS A POLICY, GET OFF YOUR KNEES

  6. #6
    Politics.ie Member Aristodemus's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Posts
    3,724
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)

    Default

    There is still an obsession with property prices in this country. Funny how inflation is seen as a bad thing in every area of the economy except property. Vested interests I suppose

  7. #7
    Politics.ie Member
    Join Date
    Feb 2004
    Posts
    15,537
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)

    Default

    Your analysis ignores the number one most important element in the price/value of a property - bank lending policies and capability.

    Given that the banks are currently reducing their balance sheets, and will continue to do so for the foreseeable future, there is no price support there to maintain prices even at current levels.

    You mention that NAMA will come under pressure to start disposing of properties. This will be less of a problem than the banks starting to dispose of the stock of properties they already have, and the pressure from the CB for them to be more pro-active about foreclosing. The NAMA portfolio is much less geared towards residential than the banks.
    "Always do right. This will gratify some people and astonish the rest." Mark Twain

    “When a government is dependent upon bankers for money, they and not the leaders of the government control the situation, since the hand that gives is above the hand that takes. Money has no motherland; financiers are without patriotism and without decency; their sole object is gain.” Napoléon Bonaparte

  8. #8
    Politics.ie Member gijoe's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Posts
    15,301
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)

    Default

    The biggest factor impacting on the property market last year was the ending of the mortgage interest relief. That brought a number of people artificially into the market at the same time in the 2nd half of the year hence the small upward pressure on prices in Dublin. However, all that means is that they will fall that bit further back in 2013 yet you will not read any of this in the mainstream (advertising junkies) media!!

  9. #9
    Politics.ie Member Nemesiscorporation's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2011
    Location
    Planet earth
    Posts
    14,081
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by murtaep View Post
    MyHome.ie Property Barometer Q4 2012 | MyHome Advice Centre
     Average asking price nationally is now DOWN 51.5% from peak.
     exclusively based on asking prices
     The price of new properties declined by 3.2% in Q4 bringing the annual rate of decline to 9%
     Ms Kelleher said the outlook remains uncertain with further volatility in prices likely in 2013.

    2013: After six years, time to build again?
     Average asking price nationally is now down 51.3% from peak.
     For the first time, examines actual sold prices based on data from the Property Price Register
     There was a 0.9% decline nationally in Q4, 2012 (so leave the Irish independent toilet papers in the shops)
     Asking prices are still falling rapidly in Munster, Connacht and Ulster. Indeed, for the first time since prices started to fall, the fall from the peak is greater in Connacht-Ulster (55.9%)

    Analyses of both articles
    Irish residential property prices still falling, but at lower rate « NAMA Wine Lake


    Price suppressing Factor the following for 2013:
    Property tax,
    Loss of mortgage interest rate relief, some of the demand from 2013 was stolen and crammed into 2012 instead
    Lack of mortgage funding,
    Further reduced disposable income and wages (due to continued recession and increased taxes not just in 2013 but beyond),
    Increase in supply due to large increase repossessions (due to NAMA being forced to offload property and personal insolvency bill).
    The introduction of a 1% stamp duty tax for first time buyers
    New build costs are difficult to ascertain as although the cost of labour has decreased the price of materials has increased. (But site prices have decreased alot)

    Factors which may lead to an increase in property prices in 2013:
    Increased rental yields may encourage buy to let (but will have a very negligible affect)
    The abolishment of the high stamp duty rate for second home buyers (reduced to 1%)
    A balance has been reached in Dublin and possibly in the other cities between supply and demand (Therefore this may give others outside Dublin a perception of future price movement) In Dublin the stock of available properties for sale continues to decline and is now at just over 4,000
    The only other actual good thing I can see the property market has going for it is that the main stream media propaganda Irish times and independent toilet papers are attempting to stoke the fires again (and the last thing buyers want is to miss the bottom, perception of future price movement)
    Dublin house prices up 4.2% this year - The Irish Times - Sat, Dec 29, 2012
    Rise in home prices sparks hopes of recovery - National News - Independent.ie

    My analyses of all this:
    I believe it will take years for demand to meet the oversupply of houses outside of Dublin and although house prices may bottom out in the next year or two, it will take a while after for prices to rise much on a consistent basis.
    Austerity budgets will continue for at least 3 more years. The government’s own figures show that unemployment will only fall negligibly over the next 3 years. (The fall is mainly due to net emigration)

    Their is no sign of any world recovery in the US have fiscal problems and a Gov debt of approaching 17trillion $, Germany's GDP is beginning to decline, Italy and france are also having problems with there debt to GDP levels. The UK also has huge debt problems (something which most media fail to comment on),
    Being a small country exporting mainly to these places, we are far from out of the woods.
    The prices need to half again before the property market gets going again.

    The entire NAMA book needs to be put on the market with auctions on each house to bottom it out, then to get the market moving again.

  10. #10
    Politics.ie Member
    Join Date
    Jun 2011
    Posts
    329
    Mentioned
    0 Post(s)

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by SPN View Post
    Your analysis ignores the number one most important element in the price/value of a property - bank lending policies and capability.

    Given that the banks are currently reducing their balance sheets, and will continue to do so for the foreseeable future, there is no price support there to maintain prices even at current levels.

    You mention that NAMA will come under pressure to start disposing of properties. This will be less of a problem than the banks starting to dispose of the stock of properties they already have, and the pressure from the CB for them to be more pro-active about foreclosing. The NAMA portfolio is much less geared towards residential than the banks.
    I did touch on both those points on the banks reluctance to lend and I agree altough NAMA has alot of commerical property they also have a huge amount of residential estates and are one of the biggest property holding entiites in the world, so are not to be overlooked in any analysys.

Page 1 of 32 1234511 ... LastLast

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •