Notwithstanding the huge property overhang we all know about, and all the factors which continue to depress the property market such as unemployment, lack of credit and new taxes, there must be some constituency within our population which are biding their time for an opportunity to purchase new homes for their families.
The housing market stopped dead in 2007, so coming on for 5-6 years later, I would wager that there is a significant amount of potential buyers with reasonable savings and good credit potential waiting to buy, either for a first home or to upgrade.
I think in the last full year of boom time, there were approx 90,000 houses built. But at least half of these were for BTL investment and maybe a further 20k houses purchased by massive mortgages by those who simply could not afford the repayments.
So, even if one were to assume a natural, sustainable demand of 10k houses per annum, that would indicate a pent up demand of some 50k buyers - waiting and saving. Waiting and saving for an indication that the prices have bottomed, whatever that indication may be.
I suspect there is a buyer overhang, I think it would be weird if there wasn't. Not everyone got caught with their trousers down. The question is, what effect will this hoarded demand have when the market floor has been called?