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Thread: 30 Nov Lucid Talk poll: UUP 11.4 (+0.4) All: 11.6 (+0.7) SDLP: 13.5 (+1) SF 26.4 (-1.6) DUP 30 (-0.7)

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    Default 30 Nov Lucid Talk poll: UUP 11.4 (+0.4) All: 11.6 (+0.7) SDLP: 13.5 (+1) SF 26.4 (-1.6) DUP 30 (-0.7)

    The poll is published in the Belfast Telegraph today and gives the following result (with changes from last poll in brackets).

    UUP 11.4 (+0.4)
    All: 11.6 (+0.7)
    SDLP: 13.5 (+1)
    SF 26.4 (-1.6)
    DUP 30 (-0.7)
    Greens 3.7% (NC)
    TUV 3.4%

    MOE: 3.6%

    Lucidtalk is a member of the British Polling Council, a quality kitemark.

    Source: tweet from reliable source, Alex Kane: https://twitter.com/AlexKane221b

    The last Lucid Talk poll (May 2012) had the following results:

    DUP 30.7
    SF 28
    UUP 11
    SDLP 12.5
    All 10.9
    Green 3.7

    Comment: Changes are within the margin of error of 3.6%. Suggests, however, slight move away from DUP and SF but that DUP and SF remain the most popular parties within each segment of the population. Alliance seem to be edging ahead of UUP.
    Last edited by factual; 1st December 2012 at 02:57 AM.

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    Have to laugh at them reporting the results to decimal point accuracy - doesn't disguise the fact there is a 4% margin of error, which effectively makes it useless.

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    Quote Originally Posted by UlickO View Post
    Have to laugh at them reporting the results to decimal point accuracy - doesn't disguise the fact there is a 4% margin of error, which effectively makes it useless.
    The MOE is 3.6%.

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    Pretty much as you were then.

    Although it does tickle me that the Alliance is above the UUP.

    Also Catholics outnumber Protestants in votes for Alliance in a 4:3 ratio.

    Also SF have a women vote problem, but has a healthy youth vote.
    Love me. Cherish me. I'm a unionist.

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    Seems like a surprising 4.4% swing towards the Sunningdale trio over the legion of the Chuckle brothers, and a 3.7% swing from DUP/SF to SDLP/UUP. Unionism gains 0.3% from Nationalism.

    If these figures do reflect, a lot depends on the constituency distribution of these figures, the swings applied across would see Sinn Féin lose a seat in Fermanagh South Tyrone and possibly Newry and Armagh to the SDLP, the UUP would regain a seat in East Derry, and take McNarry's seat in Strangford and from the DUP in Lagan Valley.

    Mitchell McLaughlin and Alex Maskey would be two of the leading Sinn Féiners needing the electoral machine to cushion any blow from the -1.6% loss, Sinn Féin's seat in East Antrim also under threat. The DUP face challenges from the UUP and SDLP for their third seat in South Antrim, and the increase in Alliance vote wouldn't help that cause one bit.

    My guess is that they would be more central though.

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    Quote Originally Posted by UlickO View Post
    Have to laugh at them reporting the results to decimal point accuracy - doesn't disguise the fact there is a 4% margin of error, which effectively makes it useless.
    Take off 4% and it's still a 0.4% swing against the established two, one that could haunt them in a quite a few marginals.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Garza View Post

    Also Catholics outnumber Protestants in votes for Alliance in a 4:3 ratio.

    .
    Wherr you get that from?

    Only real trend in Northern Politics is the slow steady rise of Alliance

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    Quote Originally Posted by Iarmhi Gael View Post
    Wherr you get that from?

    Only real trend in Northern Politics is the slow steady rise of Alliance
    A 0.6% rise wouldn't get them any more seats though, all we could see is their transfers propping up other parties. North Down is their best bet for a new seat, but only at Stephen Agnew's expense. One seat more under normal D'Hondt would still leave them with one minister.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Iarmhi Gael View Post
    Wherr you get that from?

    Only real trend in Northern Politics is the slow steady rise of Alliance
    Belfast Telegraph newspaper
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    Quote Originally Posted by physicist View Post
    A 0.6% rise wouldn't get them any more seats though, all we could see is their transfers propping up other parties. North Down is their best bet for a new seat, but only at Stephen Agnew's expense.
    Alliance though continues to rise - compared to their 7.4% they acheived in May 2011 in the local elections. I am sure SDLP will be happy to see some sort of solidity and core vote emerge now and hopefully can start to build further

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