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Thread: The below replacement Irish birthrate

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    Politics.ie Member Telemachus's Avatar
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    Default The below replacement Irish birthrate

    A TFR ( Total Fertility Rate ) of 2.1 is the replacement rate. This means with a rate of 2.1 the numbers in a population will stay steady. A rate lower will lead to a decrease in population, a higher rate will lead to an increase in the population of the given group.

    It basically is the average number of kids an average woman is expected to have in her lifetime.

    It is common but seldom mentioned knowledge today that most of the western world is in a phase of demographic collapse. This will most visibly express itself in a collapse in the pension systems of western countries as we all age.

    Media reports in recent years here have articles about our "Baby Boom".

    There is no baby boom, it is distortion at worst or simplication of facts at best, in fact the numbers of Irish in Ireland are going to decline for the long term for two reasons: the low fertility rate of the Irish ethnic group and then the emigration of large numbers of young Irish.

    Here is some data to illustrate. Note the TFR is not an ethnic Irish only one. The ethnic Irish one is lower still due to immigrants who make up maybe 15% of the population having 20-25% of all the children.

    I dont have older figures for the % of foreign mothers(we can assume this is small prior to the noughties) and I realise a small percentage of the foreign mothers are with Irish men.

    Year R.O.I Total Fertility Rate % Foreign Mothers
    1960 3.78
    1970 3.85
    1980 3.21
    1990 2.11
    1995 1.84
    1996 1.88
    1997 1.93
    1998 1.93
    1999 1.89
    2000 1.88
    2001 1.9
    2002 1.9
    2003 1.89
    2004 1.87
    2005 1.87
    2006 1.86
    2007 1.86 19%
    2008 1.85 22%
    2009 1.85 24%
    2010 2.03 25%

    Religiosity is highly correlated with birthrate, so with our increasingly secularisation over time the less kids were born. Other factors are important too like female participation in the workforce, general levels of education, the divorce law change in the 90s and on demand contraception( soon to be on demand abortion if certain people get their way).

    Kevin Myers has commented on this issue today so I felt compelled to post on the data i gathered, ill add his comments here:

    This great, liberal society is silent on decisive social issues of our time - Analysis, Opinion - Independent.ie
    Take the recently released figures and analyses from the Central Statistics Office, 2010-11. They revealed, amongst others things, that the birth rate amongst Irish women is now catastrophically below replacement level: our overall birth rate is 2.06, which is just below the generally accepted replacement figure of 2.1, and down 36pc in 30 years. But only 77pc of our births were to Irish mothers, so proportionately, the indigenous Irish population is plummeting. However, even to say this is probably "racist" according to the norms of our splendid media studies courses; and so, what would once have been a most salient headline revelation was at best last week a footnote, if even that.

    ...

    Ireland is now imitating the deathbed demographics of the rest of Europe, which will ensure that the native populations will require the labour and services of immigrants from the developing world to run their trams and, when the time comes, to wipe their bums. What then of the feminist agenda which has supervised the calamitous fall in native fertility, when the robust and reproductive populations within Europe are drawn from other societies, with other religions and perhaps even anti-feminist priorities?
    The solution to this from right and left liberals is mass immigration to fill labour gaps and sometimes appeals for cheaper childcare( looked after by who?).

    Some follow up reading:
    Europe's Stark Choice on Immigration - Newsweek and The Daily Beast
    EU needs to recognise value of immigrants | Irish Examiner
    Asia Times Online :: Spengler : Israel, Ireland and the peace of the aging

    Im wondering what do people think about this subject? Beyond the current financial crisis this issue will have major implications for you all as you age especially if you are under 50.
    Last edited by Telemachus; 20th November 2012 at 11:03 PM.
    ..the Irish nation can become other than white, by privileging the voices of the racialised and subverting state immigration but also integration policies. Ronit Lentin

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    How is the birth rate distributed between warriors economic stratas of society?

    We need to import all the best mobile talent in the world to grow our economy if the coming crops of retires are to have any standard of living!

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    Widespread use of contraception means sex is now completely divorced from procreation. Procreation has become an unwanted consequence if sex to be prevented at all costs. Abortion will only worsen the situation further.

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    Quote Originally Posted by MariaMcN View Post
    Widespread use of contraception means sex is now completely divorced from procreation. Procreation has become an unwanted consequence if sex to be prevented at all costs. Abortion will only worsen the situation further.
    It is the subconscious drive to procreate that drives the sex instinct!

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    Politics.ie Member Telemachus's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by MariaMcN View Post
    Widespread use of contraception means sex is now completely divorced from procreation. Procreation has become an unwanted consequence if sex to be prevented at all costs. Abortion will only worsen the situation further.
    Certainly, its interesting to note demographic collapse is actually a big problem in countries like Iran and places like Turkey also(for them the kurds have still high birth rates so will increasingly want to break up the country as their numbers in eastern anatolia grow).

    A nobel prize should be given if someone works out how to get secular peoples and/or those with high education to have children again.

    It is not just a spiritual problem but an economic one. A single couple with just one child may have to support also 4 parents and 8 grandparents.
    ..the Irish nation can become other than white, by privileging the voices of the racialised and subverting state immigration but also integration policies. Ronit Lentin

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    Politics.ie Member Tin Foil Hat's Avatar
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    The world will have a population of about 9 billion people in less than 40 years. The human tradition of producing large amounts of descendants as a pension scheme is the worlds most obvious, and most dangerous, ponzi scheme. We've probably already gone beyond the point where this can end in anything other than disaster.
    Striving to achieve a replacement rate is madness. Instead we need to quickly implement a system whereby people provide completely for their own old age.

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    Quote Originally Posted by potholedogger View Post
    It is the subconscious drive to procreate that drives the sex instinct!
    Our society tries to deny that and sever the link between the two.

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    I really don't see what can be done to encourage people to have more children, we already have massive welfare supports, free education, a very generous children's allowance payment and numerous other tax breaks. Personally I don't see how the state could sustain any higher payments than it makes, and most likely some of these will be reduced over the next few budgets.

    There will be a pensions crisis of a very large magnitude, if the current figures in the OP are correct even with high immigration we are not meeting the 2.1 standard. That said a model that depends solely on population growth as opposed to focusing on people saving for old age was always bound to run into trouble.

    That is why I feel that per capita growth should always be the focus of attention as opposed to just pure growth which can be population driven but still leave per capita growth static or negative.

    Some of the measures taken by the government such as dipping into private pension funds via the levy are not encouraging either. Nor is the totally unsustainable public sector pension entitlements; while there are those who will scream about the public service pension levy this is nowhere near what you would actually have to pay to finance a "real world" pension of this magnitude. Even the contributory state PRSI pension is going to prove difficult to sustain on these figures as well.

    Immigration is the only real answer at the end of the day, but it needs to be high end immigration that will finance the pensions of the future. People aren't going to "breed for Ireland" so I don't see where else we will get the required population from.
    "If we can but prevent the government from wasting the labours of the people, under the pretence of taking care of them, they must become happy." - Thomas Jefferson

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    My parents had 8 children.
    One mortgage. One car.
    But only one income.
    This was replicated in almost all my neighbours homes (some had 10,12 or more kids).
    One breadwinner.
    Thats would near impossible to handle these days.
    You'd need two incomes just for the mortgage alone.
    Simple economics are causing the end of large families.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Tin Foil Hat View Post
    The world will have a population of about 9 billion people in less than 40 years. The human tradition of producing large amounts of descendants as a pension scheme is the worlds most obvious, and most dangerous, ponzi scheme. We've probably already gone beyond the point where this can end in anything other than disaster.
    Striving to achieve a replacement rate is madness. Instead we need to quickly implement a system whereby people provide completely for their own old age.
    Our system in Ireland is very much based on the current working population supporting the current generation of pensioners. In fact we have borrowed heavily to support them. Increasing the dependency ratio will mean lower standards of living.

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