From the first time I heard of it I knew
1.) it hadn't been carried out by PIRA
2.) There was something not quite right with it
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinook_cr ... of_Kintyre
1.) Standard Operating Procedure within military and civilians leadership is you never put all the eggs in 1 basket, its why a President and VP never travel together, a Senior General and his deputy never in the same Helicopter etc etc. This is drilled into senior military people throughout their life and the people on board the copter would have known it more than anybody that a single hit would do a lot of damage. Why put everybody in 1 copter when a jet can easily be called up. Bear in mind Pilots were on duty for 6 hrs before crash waiting to takeoff.
2.) Those who died lived in paranoia, everwhere they went everything they did outside of a secure base was always done mindful there could be someone with a gun / bomb planted close by. They were the establisment and they ensured they looked after themselves and controlled what was happening. Living like that and being aware of the risk of everybody being on 1 aircraft would mean that someone senior was requiring them in 1 place. These people would err on side of caution always as thats how they lived.
3.) The alledged conference they were supposed to attend never seems to have happened so finding out whether it was ever going to occur, its subject matter, attendees etc would show if it was real or a made up one designed to lull people into a false sense of security. It had to be BIG as these people don't do small events.
4.) The roadblocks to a peace agreement in NI were not either side but the vested intersts that needed the war to continue, the Raison D'etre of existence and their power came from a war. Any settlement of that would make them and their power redundant.
5.) In 1912 The British Army had an internal mutiny over home rule and supported Carson and the Unionists. In the 1970's during the UWC strikes the military effectively stood by while anarchy reigned. This was coordinate and run by a select group of individuals who believed themselves untouchable and loyal to themselves and NOT the UK Government. The UK establishment knows history and together with the US would have known what the risks were and who the people who could keep the war going were. Eliminating a risk in an accident is effective and there is no backlash unlike Bloody Sunday in 1920.
6.) Setting the scene for "an accident" takes some planning but hell even Tom Clancy did this in one of his books by getting a problem logged days earlier or to build up over months to ensure there is enough"Evidence" to stop crash investigators looking further than it being an accident. In relation to this Chinook crash its all there.
7.) The weather on the Mull was awful on that day with lots of mist, low visibility etc, perfect flying blind weather, where pilots required to use mapping software and rely on it. The Pilots were special forces pilots who knew how to use the software and rely on it. Changing the settings so instead of being at 250 feet you are at 150 feet is easily done when you have all the source codes and is pretty hard to prove when the same people who changed it are investigating it. Keeping them on station for 6 hrs before the flight was also part of the ruse as the copter hit the cliffs at full power so blame the pilots.
A government will kill its citizens when its in its interests to do so.
I have always believed that the people who died on the Chinook were killed maybe not by the Brits but by someone who was doing a "Black Op" with the full support of the UK Govt, only 1 country could arrange something like this well and its best at it is the US / CIA.
Lots of loose ends tied up and the barriers to peace have not all disappeared but just being reduced.
Course its only 1 stage on the path but eliminating the blockers also means that other blockers are aware as a clear message has been sent.
Did the elimination help the GFA ?
Most definitely as the opposition was political in origin with no war campaign being carried out by vested interests.