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Thread: American Pollsters

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    Politics.ie Member Aristodemus's Avatar
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    Default American Pollsters

    These guys are really impressive. They were right on the money with their forecasts. Even the margin of error seems to be discounted. I don't believe any of our pollsters are that accurate are they?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Aristodemus View Post
    These guys are really impressive. They were right on the money with their forecasts. Even the margin of error seems to be discounted. I don't believe any of our pollsters are that accurate are they?
    May be working with larger samples, and on bigger budgets. But, yes, they are impressive.

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    Politics.ie Member Spanner Island's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Aristodemus View Post
    These guys are really impressive. They were right on the money with their forecasts. Even the margin of error seems to be discounted. I don't believe any of our pollsters are that accurate are they?
    I don't remember any of ours being anywhere near as accurate...

    We usually have to wait for the boxes to open and the tally results to start coming in before such accuracy is possible... which means our pollsters are a bit of a load of sh!te...

    Either that or Irish people lie their heads off in polls...

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    CNN's wall guy was excellent. Broke the states right down and was basically calling Florida to Obama when 10% of Dade county was counted.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Spanner Island View Post
    I don't remember any of ours being anywhere near as accurate...

    We usually have to wait for the boxes to open and the tally results to start coming in before such accuracy is possible... which means our pollsters are a bit of a load of sh!te...

    Either that or Irish people lie their heads off in polls...

    But our counting system works very different. Results were real instead of tally men, who in fairness are excellent in Ireland.

    Maybe Ireland could give out live results for polling areas. But big difference in say Miltownpass / Rochfortbridge - 600 voters as against / Prince William County 34,000 voters - 1% of State vote.

    As for our polling - Didn't the exit poll in the last election have it spot on to the nearest per cent

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    Well as has been said above, these are two different systems to elect. The error rate is a lot higher in Ireland and it is much more difficult to gather all of the transfer voting patterns. Then you have the permutations on these patterns. Also there are too many districts which makes sampling harder and again increases the error rates and means a higher sample size is needed.

    The US is very basic and that is why they are better at it.

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