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Thread: Guess how many troops are needed to occupy Catalonia.

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    Politics.ie Member duthealla's Avatar
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    Default Guess how many troops are needed to occupy Catalonia.

    Thats a fairly off the wall question isnt it.

    However as off the wall, left field a question as it might be, its still something a fellow of the Foundation for Analysis and Social Studies, a 'think tank' associated with the ruling partido popular, has taken time to consider. Its President is one Mr. Jose M. Aznar who might be most famous for attempting to use the Atocha bombings for tawdry political advantage to the detriement of his party. FAES by the way is also linked to the European People's Party think tank the Centre for European Studies. Do Fine Gael only realise the fine thinkers who back the EPP.

    Anyhow the FAES fellow has taken the time to go and calculate what amount of troops would be required to control Catalonia. A mere 270000 soldiers. However there is a catch here. The Spanish army totals 134,772, including military school and reserve troops, both in the army and the navy, and volunteer reserve as well.

    Its a point that FAES acknowledges in its report and goes some way to reinforcing by commenting that even if the much hated Guardia Civil were also deployed its 80,210 personnel would not meet the short fall.

    He has considered the Slovenian secession and the minor conflict that represented (isolating it from the wider frm Yug war) and noted that similar to Slovenia the Catalans have 27000 police with some capacity to effect resistance.

    Why would such an article be issued. Well one possibility is that Spanish govt. really do believe that there is a possibility of the Spanish military deciding that it needs to act to defend the consititutional integrity of the state which is a consititutional imperative. Importantly the report highlights that it is up to the Spanish Government, not the King, to give the order of occupying Catalonia in case of secession.

    Or maybe they really are dealing with hot heads who need to realise that war wont solve the Catalan issue. That the author comments any military action would end in failure and no recourse for further discussion is plain enough a warning. Yet consider to whom such a warning must be given. In recent weeks former Spanish officers have suggested military action in the event of independence and Vidal Quadras a Spanish MEP (though born in Catalonia) and a Vice President in the Nobel peace prize winning EU has called for the Guardia Civil to be sent into stop any referendum.

    Signs of how hot and how idiotic much of what passes for current Spanish extreme unionist thinking (unionist being the Catalans description for them) can be seen in this video where a Spanish extremsit gives the falangist salute and tries to burn the Catalan flag only to get a beating from other Spaniards who think he is a Catalan activist.




    With this many idiots running around getting hot and bothered about Catalonia the potential to inflame the situation is reasonably high.
    (And sadly if anyone thinks such morons are the preserve of PP then the PSOE's former president of extremadura has proposed deporting 150000 Catalonians of extremadurian descent from Catalonia in the event of secession i.e punish them by bringing them back to extremadura. Weird eh!)

    While there was a thread on the singular comment by a retired officer this has expanded in scale up to VP of the European Parliament level and is now worthy of a new look

    The FAES fellow's aricle is here: Mikel Buesa - Catalua en el espejo de Eslovenia - Libertad Digital

    The debate on Scottish independence has been to date very poor, full of misrepresentations and falsehoods but compared to Catalonia's its a paragon. At least the London govt. isnt trying to persuade its fellow unionists that invading might not be a good idea.

  2. #2

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    Just to comment from a purely military point of view numbers are not what wins or loses a war. Tactics, technology and as Napoleon put it luck as in "give me lucky generals" are all far more important than numbers alone.

    That said at best in the medium term the Catalonians would be able to maintain guerilla groups similar to the Old IRA in Ireland or the French Resistance during WWII. Open battle would not be an option that I would consider they could win, particularly due to a lack of air power.

    Any Catalonian resistance would quickly degenerate into terrorism if they wished to prolong an armed struggle as even mobile "flying columns" would be highly susceptible to attack helicopters.

    This of course would in turn lose them a lot of support. I really can't see them going to war, its one they can't win.

    That said I don't know much about Spanish regional politics. If the vast majority of the population wishes to secede then they should be allowed to do so, unlike the Basques where a majority of the population is content to remain in Spain.
    "If we can but prevent the government from wasting the labours of the people, under the pretence of taking care of them, they must become happy." - Thomas Jefferson

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    Politics.ie Member statsman's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by duthealla View Post
    Thats a fairly off the wall question isnt it.

    However as off the wall, left field a question as it might be, its still something a fellow of the Foundation for Analysis and Social Studies, a 'think tank' associated with the ruling partido popular, has taken time to consider. Its President is one Mr. Jose M. Aznar who might be most famous for attempting to use the Atocha bombings for tawdry political advantage to the detriement of his party. FAES by the way is also linked to the European People's Party think tank the Centre for European Studies. Do Fine Gael only realise the fine thinkers who back the EPP.

    Anyhow the FAES fellow has taken the time to go and calculate what amount of troops would be required to control Catalonia. A mere 270000 soldiers. However there is a catch here. The Spanish army totals 134,772, including military school and reserve troops, both in the army and the navy, and volunteer reserve as well.

    Its a point that FAES acknowledges in its report and goes some way to reinforcing by commenting that even if the much hated Guardia Civil were also deployed its 80,210 personnel would not meet the short fall.

    He has considered the Slovenian secession and the minor conflict that represented (isolating it from the wider frm Yug war) and noted that similar to Slovenia the Catalans have 27000 police with some capacity to effect resistance.

    Why would such an article be issued. Well one possibility is that Spanish govt. really do believe that there is a possibility of the Spanish military deciding that it needs to act to defend the consititutional integrity of the state which is a consititutional imperative. Importantly the report highlights that it is up to the Spanish Government, not the King, to give the order of occupying Catalonia in case of secession.

    Or maybe they really are dealing with hot heads who need to realise that war wont solve the Catalan issue. That the author comments any military action would end in failure and no recourse for further discussion is plain enough a warning. Yet consider to whom such a warning must be given. In recent weeks former Spanish officers have suggested military action in the event of independence and Vidal Quadras a Spanish MEP (though born in Catalonia) and a Vice President in the Nobel peace prize winning EU has called for the Guardia Civil to be sent into stop any referendum.

    Signs of how hot and how idiotic much of what passes for current Spanish extreme unionist thinking (unionist being the Catalans description for them) can be seen in this video where a Spanish extremsit gives the falangist salute and tries to burn the Catalan flag only to get a beating from other Spaniards who think he is a Catalan activist.




    With this many idiots running around getting hot and bothered about Catalonia the potential to inflame the situation is reasonably high.
    (And sadly if anyone thinks such morons are the preserve of PP then the PSOE's former president of extremadura has proposed deporting 150000 Catalonians of extremadurian descent from Catalonia in the event of secession i.e punish them by bringing them back to extremadura. Weird eh!)

    While there was a thread on the singular comment by a retired officer this has expanded in scale up to VP of the European Parliament level and is now worthy of a new look

    The FAES fellow's aricle is here: Mikel Buesa - Catalua en el espejo de Eslovenia - Libertad Digital

    The debate on Scottish independence has been to date very poor, full of misrepresentations and falsehoods but compared to Catalonia's its a paragon. At least the London govt. isnt trying to persuade its fellow unionists that invading might not be a good idea.
    A few key points in the article that you didn't mention.

    He's at pains to point out that military intervention is only theoretically in the gift of the King:
    aunque su mando supremo corresponde al Rey, están subordinadas al Gobierno
    Although the King is supreme commander, the army are subordinate to the government
    Por tanto, es de la voluntad gubernamental de la que, en un caso como el que nos ocupa, dependerá la determinación del alcance concreto que pudiera tener la intervención de los ejércitos en un conflicto secesionista.
    and so it is on the will of the government that , in this case, the specific nature of any military intervention in a secessionist conflict would depend.

    He goes on to point out that while the government's potential position is unknown, it is quite clear that the Socialist and Communist opposition would in no circumstances support any such intervention.

    The article reads like a distancing of the government from any such use of the army.
    Put a thief among honest men and they will eventually relieve him of his watch. Flann O'Brien

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    Politics.ie Member Lempo's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tea Party Patriot View Post
    I really can't see them going to war, its one they can't win.
    It's not always the win, sometimes it's losing with style. There are many armies in the world who ain't in it to win it but just to put too big a price tag for the possible attack and eventual victory of a potential aggressor.

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    Politics.ie Member duthealla's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by statsman View Post
    A few key points in the article that you didn't mention.

    He's at pains to point out that military intervention is only theoretically in the gift of the King:


    Although the King is supreme commander, the army are subordinate to the government


    and so it is on the will of the government that , in this case, the specific nature of any military intervention in a secessionist conflict would depend.

    He goes on to point out that while the government's potential position is unknown, it is quite clear that the Socialist and Communist opposition would in no circumstances support any such intervention.

    The article reads like a distancing of the government from any such use of the army.
    mentioned that a chara

    "Importantly the report highlights that it is up to the Spanish Government, not the King, to give the order of occupying Catalonia in case of secession".

    and that "Or maybe they really are dealing with hot heads who need to realise that war wont solve the Catalan issue. That the author comments any military action would end in failure and no recourse for further discussion is plain enough a warning."

    I agree this is most definitely not the Spanish govt, mulling over how to conquer Catalonia butits them trying to point out to the hotheads in the unionist camp that all this talk of military intervention will result in failure and the loss of Catalonia definitely.
    For me that they even need to point out something so obvious is striking yet point it out they must because even EP VPs are talking about it being an option.

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    The Catalan Movement are not a violent sort by nature.
    They're more your bookish, pot smoking, liberal types.
    The Falange would cut through them like a hot knife through butter.
    And there are many Catalans in the Falange movement.

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    Politics.ie Member duthealla's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tea Party Patriot View Post
    Just to comment from a purely military point of view numbers are not what wins or loses a war. Tactics, technology and as Napoleon put it luck as in "give me lucky generals" are all far more important than numbers alone.

    That said at best in the medium term the Catalonians would be able to maintain guerilla groups similar to the Old IRA in Ireland or the French Resistance during WWII. Open battle would not be an option that I would consider they could win, particularly due to a lack of air power.

    Any Catalonian resistance would quickly degenerate into terrorism if they wished to prolong an armed struggle as even mobile "flying columns" would be highly susceptible to attack helicopters.

    This of course would in turn lose them a lot of support. I really can't see them going to war, its one they can't win.

    That said I don't know much about Spanish regional politics. If the vast majority of the population wishes to secede then they should be allowed to do so, unlike the Basques where a majority of the population is content to remain in Spain.


    I dont think anyone anticipates a war wth attack helicopters. The extant to which the author suggested a war was Slovenia where less than a hundred, i think, died but I think its clear from his piece that he thinks talk of war is idiotic.

    By the way seeing as how a majority of Basques voted for pro-independence parties its hard to see where you get the idea that the Basques want to stay in Spain.

    By the way if Spanish officials are deluded to talk about invading catalonia then wouldnt they do the same to the Basque country who surely would see the writing on the wall and step up once more for their freedom.

    Which all goes to show that these lunatics calling for war are really mad and the spaniards should be doing more to slap them down than issue circumtuitous suggestions that war is a bad idea.

    That Spain is acting thus in incredible.

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    Politics.ie Member duthealla's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Truth.ie View Post
    The Catalan Movement are not a violent sort by nature.
    They're more your bookish, pot smoking, liberal types.
    The Falange would cut through them like a hot knife through butter.
    And there are many Catalans in the Falange movement.


    ?

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    Politics.ie Member Ren84's Avatar
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    I hope ordinary Catalans are paying heed to the words of their "fellow" Spanish and their talk of military intervention if Catalonia decides to exercise its right to freedom. All this talk of war will do is drive more and more Catalans into the pro independence camp. Seems unionism is equally retarded in Spain as it is in Britain.

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    Politics.ie Member Analyzer's Avatar
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    So now we are getting to the point of possible civil war and murder as a result of a mess in Spain over debt. Catalonia and all of it's neighbours are just as bad however.

    I wonder was this what was in mind when they decided to give the EU a Peace Prize....

    The problem for the EU is that it cannot allow Catalonia to secede, because it would set a very bad precedent for holding together the EU in some sort of fiscal union with fiscal transfers, if whole countries like Spain, Italy and Belgium are getting tired of the idea.
    Coveney's ambition is the be Ireland's next EU Commissar and Ireland will pay a price as he builds his CV to position himself sufficiently loyal to the nEU empire.

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